REFERENDUM BILL FAILS, BUT VOTE LEAVES LIKUD BADLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 001927 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREF KWBG IS GOI INTERNAL GAZA DISENGAGEMENT SUBJECT: REFERENDUM BILL FAILS, BUT VOTE LEAVES LIKUD BADLY SPLIT REF: TEL AVIV 1896 Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) The landslide defeat of the disengagement referendum bill in a 72-39 Knesset vote March 28 was achieved mainly with the help of opposition parties, whose votes countered the 27 Likud MKs who broke with Prime Minister Sharon and supported the bill. The split in Likud poses no threat to Sharon's government before disengagement since those MKs who want to topple Sharon and/or derail disengagement currently lack a political vehicle to do so; the referendum bill was defeated and, with Shinui's support guaranteed, the budget is virtually assured passage in the March 29 or 30 vote (reftel). In addition, with the pro-disengagement and secular Shinui Party leading a diverse opposition composed of the religious Shas party, the religious Zionist parties, left-wing Yahad, and three Arab parties, no combination of opposition parties is likely to emerge with a unifying issue that could rally the necessary 61-MK majority to topple the government via no-confidence votes. ¶2. (C) The next political challenge facing Sharon -- and one he should easily overcome -- lies not in the Knesset, but in the June-July Cabinet votes on implementation of each of the four phases of the disengagement plan. Sharon has enough votes to move disengagement through the Cabinet, but the split among Likud ministers leaves Sharon dependent on the votes of his eight Labor Party ministers. Currently, out of the 14 Likud Ministers in the 23-seat Cabinet, only about half support disengagement. Sharon has one vacant Cabinet seat that he will likely fill with some Likud MK who has been loyal to Sharon and who supports disengagement. ¶3. (C) The real ramifications of the Likud split will show up in the run-up to the next elections, which are scheduled to take place at the end of 2006. Polls indicate that Sharon would easily win over his arch-rival, Finance Minister and disengagement skeptic Binyamin Netanyahu, if party-wide primaries to choose Likud's candidate for prime minister were held today. The 12 MKs who voted with Sharon against the referendum bill, including Sharon's son Omri, are much more at risk because the right-of-Sharon Likud Central Committee, which supported a disengagement referendum, draws up the party list from which MKs are elected. Sharon's coattails may not be long enough or strong enough to bring these MKs along with him. ¶4. (C) Ironically, the 13-MK Likud group (including Sharon) that voted against the referendum bill, is a numerical mirror image of the 13-MK Likud group ("rebels") that has persistently opposed disengagement and conditioned its support for the budget on Sharon holding a disengagement referendum. As Yedioth Ahronoth journalist Nahum Barnea wrote March 29, "...the internal situation in the Likud has been reversed (by the referendum vote): those who were considered until yesterday to be a rebellious minority are now the majority, and those who were thought of as the majority are now the faction of rebels... They violated the express decision made by the party institutions.... Sharon is now the leader of a small and frightened camp." ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** KURTZER