MOST KNESSET MEMBERS, PUNDITS PREDICT BUDGET WILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 001456

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON IS GOI INTERNAL ECONOMY AND FINANCE
SUBJECT: MOST KNESSET MEMBERS, PUNDITS PREDICT BUDGET WILL
PASS, BUT NO ONE KNOWS HOW

REF: TEL AVIV 1362

Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: Prime Minister Sharon postponed the final
votes on the 2005 budget, originally scheduled for March 17,
counting on the fact that parties and MKs that could provide
the crucial votes will not show their cards until they are
pressed against the March 31 deadline -- and facing the
prospect of public castigation for any collapse of the
government. Sharon concluded that a budget vote two weeks
before the deadline might fail, and thus only serve to make
him look weak, even if he managed to win in a re-vote. Most
Embassy contacts, including Shinui and opposition leader
Tommy Lapid, and other MKs from a range of parties, have
expressed certainty that the budget will pass, but few are
prepared to predict which party(ies) or MKs will, in the end,
provide the deciding combination of votes and abstentions.
Most wavering parties want to make sure that their votes are
indeed necessary for Sharon's -- and disengagement's --
survival, since, if Sharon were assured a surplus of budget
votes, they would otherwise oppose the budget on political
grounds. End summary.


2. (C) Sharon can now count on 52 MKs, including
unaffiliated MK Michael Nudelman, to support his budget. In
recent negotiations, the Finance Ministry agreed to certain
United Arab List budget demands, which will likely yield
Sharon that party's two votes or abstentions, perhaps giving
Sharon a total of 54 votes. Yahad MKs have told poloff that
five out of its six members would either abstain in the vote
or support the budget, depending on what is necessary for the
government's survival, possibly providing Sharon 59 votes.
Sharon, at that point, would thus appear to need a
combination of only a few votes in favor or a few abstentions
to ensure budget passage. (Note: In a tie vote, the budget
would fail. End note.)


3. (C) Sharon, Finance Minister Netanyahu, and Finance
Ministry officials have all met with wavering parties and
MKs, trying to win their support. Sharon met March 10 with
unaffiliated MKs Joseph Paritzky, Michael Nudelman, and David
Tal in attempts to secure their support, but Tal demanded
(unsuccessfully) budget concessions, and Paritzky agreed only
to abstain. Netanyahu has been meeting with several of the
13 Likud MK "rebels" who threaten to oppose the budget unless
Sharon holds a disengagement referendum, but none of the 13
has indicated that (s)he will fold. Sharon used a speaking
opportunity to mark International Women's Day to urge the
wives of Likud members to use their influence to convince the
Likud rebels to support the budget.


4. (C) Shinui and Shas continue to oppose the budget, but
pundits continue to talk about the possibility that either A)
Shinui will provide 11th hour support, or B) Sharon and
Netanyahu will get Shas to drop its opposition to the budget
by agreeing to Shas's demand to restore child allowances.
Shinui leader Lapid told the Ambassador March 9 that he still
believes the best option for Sharon is to take Shinui back
into the coalition, and thus acquire Shinui's 14 votes for
the budget. Lapid dismissed the argument that such an action
would prompt even more Likud MKs to rebel against Sharon,
stressing that a Likud-Labor-Shinui coalition would not be --
as some in Likud charge -- a secular, leftist coalition.
While Lapid indicated that he is still deliberating on how
Shinui will vote in the end, he highlighted the difficulty
Shinui would have in either casting abstentions or voting for
the budget, given the fact that Shinui chose to leave the
coalition over the budget. Lapid cited recent polls showing
that Shinui voters support Lapid's opposition to the budget.
Responding to the Ambassador's query, Lapid acknowledged that
differences of opinion exist within the Shinui faction, but
said he will impose party discipline in the vote. Shinui's
holdout on the budget notwithstanding, Lapid predicted that
the budget would pass with the help of Yahad and the Arab
parties.


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