SENATOR ALLEN'S FEBRUARY 13 MEETING WITH MFA

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 001026

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2015
TAGS: PTER PREL OVIP IS GOI EXTERNAL GAZA DISENGAGEMENT ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: SENATOR ALLEN'S FEBRUARY 13 MEETING WITH MFA
OFFICIALS


Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) On February 13 Senator George Allen and Ambassador
Kurtzer met with MFA North American Deputy Yoram Ben Ze'ev
and Head of the Research Department Harry Kney'tal. They
discussed developments in Europe relating to the designation
of Hizbollah as a terrorist organization, and political
developments in the Middle East.

--
EU
--


2. (C) Ben Ze'ev opened the meeting by thanking Senator Allen
for the letter he had signed with other senators that was
recently sent to Brussels that supports the GOI position that
Hizbollah should be designated a terrorist organization by
the EU Clearinghouse. Ben Ze'ev commented, "even if there is
no change, we will have at least forced them (the EU
Clearinghouse) to provide an answer." The issue is pivotal
for Israel because Hizbollah is not targeting Europe, but
Israel.

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Iraq
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3. (C) Commenting on his recent visit to Iraq, Senator Allen
mentioned that it is a country that "can make it." Senator
Allen described his meetings with Jaffari as hopeful, and an
assurance that Iraq will develop into a country based on
freedoms, as much as based on Islamic law. Kney'tal
described his assessment that for many Muslims, it will be
difficult to have one of the pillars of Sunni Islam (Syria,
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq) ruled by Sh'ia Muslims for the
first time. Kney'tal hypothesized that Tehran will see Sh'ia
rule of Iraq as a positive development in the short-term, but
questioned how Iran will react when Iraq does not develop
into a theocracy. He noted that Jordan and Saudi Arabia
viewed an election victory by the Sh'ia parties with concern.

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Lebanon & Syria & Iran
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4. (C) Kney'tal said he felt President Mahmood Abbas's
recent visit to Lebanon had been successful and that Abbas's
argument that he "be given a chance" had seemed to persuade
some in Beirut. Nonetheless, he continued, there is the
potential for Hizbollah elements operating in Southern
Lebanon to carry out successful attacks in Israel that will
"cause embarrassment" for Abbas. In contrast to his success
in Lebanon, Abbas got no more than "a nod" from Syria. It is
unlikely, he opined, that Syria will pull out of Lebanon and
stop interfering in Lebanese politics prior to the upcoming
elections. Kney'tal assessed that it was likely that Abbas
would next take his message to Tehran.

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Disengagement & the PA
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5. (C) Kney'tal predicted that President Abbas did not
intend to "crack down" on terrorist groups operating in the
West Bank or Gaza, because he cannot risk provoking a civil
war, but would pursue a strategy to coopt these groups to
observe the cease fire at least through the beginning of
disengagement. Proud of the increase in revenue transfers
from the GOI to the PA, Kney'tal mentioned the need for Arab
states to make their promised contributions. Disengagement
will call for bold leadership not only from Israel, but from
the international community. Kney'tal also emphasized that
involvement of PM Sharon, President Abbas, and President Bush
made the situation on the ground, "better than it has been
for the last four or five years."


6. (U) Senator Allen did not have an opportunity to clear on
this cable before he departed Israel.

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