GAZA DISENGAGEMENT: WITH NEW GOVERNMENT, SHARON TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000102

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/06/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL IS GAZA DISENGAGEMENT GOI INTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS ECONOMY AND FINANCE
SUBJECT: GAZA DISENGAGEMENT: WITH NEW GOVERNMENT, SHARON TO
EXPEDITE VOTES ON BUDGET, DISENGAGEMENT

REF: TEL AVIV 70

Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: The three-month trial period for which the
United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party has agreed to enter a
coalition with Likud and Labor gives Prime Minister Sharon
the time -- and majorities in the relevant bodies -- to :

-- establish a 66-MK majority government, probably as early
as January 10;
-- pass the budget in three quick Knesset readings;
-- pass the remaining two Knesset readings for disengagement
implementing legislation;
-- and push through the Cabinet the votes on each of the
evacuation plan's four phases.

End summary.

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Sharon on the Fast Track
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2. (C) The January 5 decision by UTJ spiritual leader Rabbi
Shalom Elyashiv to join a coalition with Likud and Labor,
albeit for a three-month trial period without ministerial
portfolios, allows Prime Minister Sharon to seek Knesset
approval of a new government as early as January 10. Likud,
Labor and the UTJ will likely sign their respective coalition
agreements January 6, with Cabinet approval, required for
expanding the coalition, on January 9. Sharon's 13-member
all-Likud Cabinet is expected to approve the expanded
government with a clear majority in favor since UTJ's
inclusion meets the demands of Likud MKs for a religious
party in the government. He can then submit the signed
agreements to the Knesset January 9 to meet the
legally-mandated 24-hour consideration period that would
allow the Knesset to vote on the new government January 10.


3. (C) In the Knesset, where no one wants to see early
elections and where the majority supports disengagement,
Sharon can count on at least 27 of the 40 Likud MKs to
support the new government, in addition to Labor's 19, Am
Ehad's two, UTJ's five, and two maverick MKs, for a total of
55 out of the Knesset's 120 MKs. United Arab List MK Taleb
el-Sana told poloff January 6 that his two-member party would
lend its votes to ensure a majority for Sharon's new
government. He said that an MK from the Israeli-Arab Hadash
party said his party may also provide a safety net. Or
Pearl, assistant to Likud disengagement foe MK Ehud Yatom,
told poloff January 6 that he is certain that several of the
13 Likud MKs who oppose disengagement will either abstain in
the vote or absent themselves to ensure that Sharon wins the
simple majority for a new government. Many of the rebels are
first-term MKs who could lose their seats in new elections.
Sharon can also count on left-wing Yahad's six MKs to
abstain, something that party has already said it would do to
prevent Sharon's government from falling and thereby ensure
implementation of the disengagement plan.


4. (C) Sharon has also indicated he is ready to re-introduce
his stalled budget January 10, after the Knesset votes on the
new government, and then move the budget through three speedy
readings. Sharon also plans to advance the first Cabinet
vote on evacuation to January from March.

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UTJ: Actions Speak Louder than Words
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5. (C) Elyashiv's decision to sign on to the coalition for
only a three-month trial period illustrates the distrust felt
by the 94-year-old Rabbi over whether Sharon -- who was
willing to sit in a coalition with the arch-secular Shinui
party -- will make good on commitments contained in the
coalition agreement. These commitments include easily
reversible assurances that Haredi schools will not be
subjected to upcoming educational reforms recommended by the
Dovrat Committee (reftel). Elyashiv decided that during the
three months UTJ would not accept any government positions.
Two UTJ MKs -- Yaakov Litzman and Meir Porush -- who belong
to one of the two factions that comprise UTJ, however, have
indicated they are not subject to Elyashiv's directive since
he is not the rabbi for their faction. They reportedly
intend to take the positions offered the UTJ as part of the
coalition agreement: Litzman to chair the Knesset Finance
Committee and Porush aims to serve as deputy transportation
minister.


6. (C) Without any Cabinet seats, UTJ will not participate
in any upcoming Cabinet votes on disengagement
implementation, but by joining a coalition that the media has
referred to as "the disengagement government," media pundits
are assessing that UTJ has lent its stamp of approval to
Sharon's unilateral withdrawal plan. Yedioth Ahronoth
journalist Sever Plotzker wrote January 6 that: "From a
political standpoint, the permission of the elderly rabbi is
contingent on receiving further financial and social
benefits,...but from a foreign policy standpoint, the
position taken by the leaders of ultra-Orthodox Jewry is
clear: In favor of the withdrawal from Gaza and evacuation of
all its settlements."

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