OAS SYG: GOH BELIEVES DERBEZ AND INSULZA HAVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000697 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA, WHA/USOAS, AND WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2006 TAGS: PREL PGOV AORC HO OAS SUBJECT: OAS SYG: GOH BELIEVES DERBEZ AND INSULZA HAVE SOLID CARICOM SUPPORT, BUT USG CAN STILL SWAY OUTCOME Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Francisco Palmieri; Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Honduran Foreign Minister Leonidas Rosa Bautista and Senior MFA advisor AMB Policarpo Callejas told POLCOUNS on March 30 that next week's OAS SYG race will hinge on the ability of the U.S. to swing the votes of CARICOM nations. Callejas added that Honduras expected the U.S. would be able to sway the CARICOM votes at the end of the day to ensure Flores' election. ¶2. (C) Nonetheless, FM Bautista said that Mexican FM Derbez and Chilean FM Insulza have seven and six committed CARICOM votes respectively. When pressed by POLCOUNS that the USG believed that former Salvadoran President Francisco "Paco" Flores had some CARICOM votes, both replied that he did not have committed votes for the first round of voting. Callejas then stated that they had seen at least some written (although not quantified or specified) CARICOM commitments for Derbez and Insulza. ¶3. (C) Both conceded that a first round victory for any candidate seemed less and less likely, although they believe Derbez has 14 committed votes, including Haiti's. When asked if Honduras was prepared to support Flores candidacy in subsequent voting rounds, FM Rosa Bautista said that Honduras would have a difficult time voting for Flores under almost any scenario and would likely stick with Derbez. POLCOUNS suggested that Honduran support for Flores in a second or third round of voting could prove pivotal in the SYG selection process. FM Bautista took the point but did not offer any opening that Honduras might switch its vote. Palmer