HONDURAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES UPDATE 1: , EXIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000410

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, AND WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2005
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ECON ETRD SNAR KJUS PINR HO
SUBJECT: HONDURAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES UPDATE 1: , EXIT
POLLS TRENDING IN FAVOR OF PARTY FRONT-RUNNERS; LOW VOTER
TURNOUT UNDERSCORES PUBLIC'S LACK OF ENTHUSIASM

REF: TEGUCIGALPA 393

Classified By: Political Counselor Francisco Palmieri;
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Early private exit polling shows Nationalist Party
candidate President of Congress Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo with a
solid lead over Tegucigalpa Mayor Miguel Pastor. As noted in
reftel, Lobo's extremely successful campaign strategy and
"Work and Public Security" slogan appears to have enabled him
to overcome Pastor's initial high public approval ratings and
win the Nationalist primary. The most recent exit polling
figures show Lobo leading 58 percent to 35 percent in results
coming mostly from the major urban areas. At 1715, Pastor's
campaign held a press conference to announce that there own
internal polls showed Pastor leading by an unspecificed
margin. Post projects that while Pastor's advantage in rural
areas may make the final result closer Pastor will not be
able to overcome Lobo's apparent large lead in urban areas.


2. (C) In the Liberal Party primary, front-runner Mel Zelaya
is poised to win a decisive victory with more than 50 percent
of the vote in the crowded eight candidate field. According
to the same exit polls, he is pulling 53 percent of the vote.


3. (C) Post expects to have preliminary results for the
presidential results from 70 percent of the precincts before
end of evening of Feburary 20. However, as reported reftel,
post expects delays in the TSE's preliminary vote counts for
congressional and municipal races until February 22 or 23.
Final certified results may take at least a month, according
to TSE sources.


4. (U) Polls closed at 1600 on February 20 with the most
noteworthy development being the apparent depressed voter
turnout throughout the country as reported by OAS and US
election observers. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE)
authorized polling sites to remain open until 1700; but
observers reported that tables that had no voters present in
line or any voters in the last hour were closing at 1600 as
originally scheduled. Estimates from local exit polling firm
also indicated that voter turnout will most likely be between
30 and 50 percent. In the 2001 general elections, voter
turnout was about 65 percent. Observers reported the same
findings in all regions: short lines and limited voter
participation.


5. (U) The good news is that there were very limited
election irregularities and anomalies observed by the
observers. Observers reported the following problems: late
or delayed opening of polling sites, some electioneering at
polling sites, and aggressive party representatives steering
unwitting voters to their electoral tables to vote rather
than to the voter's desired party table. A few complaints
were filed about the use of government vehicles to transport
voters and at least one instance of party workers at a table
filling out congressional ballots.
Pierce