HONDURAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES: LOBO SET TO BEAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEGUCIGALPA 000393 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, AND WHA/CEN STATE FOR EB, INL, INR/AN/IAA, AND INR/B STATE PASS USTR E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ECON ETRD SNAR KJUS PINR HO SUBJECT: HONDURAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES: LOBO SET TO BEAT PASTOR IN NATIONAL PARTY; ZELAYA CRUISING IN LIBERAL RACE REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 263 ¶B. 04 TEGUCIGALPA 2646 ¶C. 04 TEGUCIGALPA 2635 ¶D. 04 TEGUCIGALPA 1541 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Roger Pierce; Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: With only days remaining before the February 20 national primary elections, and the official campaigns closed, President of Congress Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo leads Tegucigalpa Mayor Miguel Pastor by eight to 18 percent in four February national polls, the most recent taken during the weekend of February 12-13. Lobo and Pastor's bitter battle accentuated by very negative advertising campaigns quieted somewhat, with the February 14 signing of a "Patriotic Unity Pact" pledging to respect the election results. Mel Zelaya is running away from the crowded eight candidate Liberal Party primary field and is aiming to win over 50 percent of the primary vote, which would be more than double the support of his closest contender. An historic OAS election observation mission will monitor a national primary for the first time ever. Robust Embassy participation in the OAS observation mission and a first-ever domestic election observation effort will help ensure that elections are free and fair. End Summary. Lobo Ahead and Likely to Win -------------- ¶2. (SBU) A February 11 private poll conducted nationally by Ingenieria Gerencial shows President of Congress Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo leading Tegucigalpa Mayor Miguel Pastor 51 to 42 percent in the National Party race. Lobo has increased his lead in Tegucigalpa where he is ahead of Pastor by a whopping 62 percent to 29 percent, and has pulled slightly ahead of Pastor in San Pedro Sula, 48 percent to 44 percent. The poll has a margin of error of three percent nationally, and one and half percent for the Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula numbers. An early February private poll done by Demoscopia has Lobo with an even larger national lead of 53 percent vs. 35 percent for Pastor (with a margin of error of 2.4 percent). A February 7-11 poll conducted by Le Vote Harris has Lobo leading by the smaller margin of 53 percent to 45 percent for Pastor. The poll has a margin of error of three percent. In the UNO Marketing and Publicidad poll conducted February 12-13, Lobo leads Pastor 53 percent to 39 percent nationally, with a 60 to 30 percent lead in Tegucigalpa and a 50-40 percent lead in San Pedro Sula. ¶3. (SBU) Pastor has continued to hammer at the corruption theme, but it has not turned around his poll numbers. According to the Demoscopia poll, while voters overwhelmingly attach the "gasolinazo" scandal to Lobo's movement, more citizens polled thought that Pastor was misrepresenting Lobo's involvement than thought Pastor's claims were true. Lobo continued to emphasize his tough on crime platform, recalling fondly the 1933-48 presidency of dictator Tiburcio Carias Andino. In a potentially important development, Lobo and Pastor, as well as President Ricardo Maduro and other National Party figures, signed February 14 a "Patriotic Unity Pact" pledging to respect the election results. Zelaya Set to Easily Win Liberal Race -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Former Social Fund Minister Mel Zelaya has a commanding lead in the Liberal Party race, with 53 percent, as compared to 20 percent for Congressman/businessman Jaime Rosenthal and 10 percent for economist Gabriela Nunez, according to the Ingenieria Gerencial poll. Zelaya has 52 percent, Rosenthal 18 percent, and Nunez 10 percent in the Demoscopia poll. Zelaya has 49 percent, Rosenthal 25 percent, and Nunez 14 percent in the Le Vote Harris poll. Zelaya is running stronger in Tegucigalpa than San Pedro Sula. Barring a large surprise, the final finish will likely stay in the current 1-2-3 order. Of note is the rapidly fading star of former President of Congress and losing 2001 Liberal Party presidential candidate, Rafael Pineda Ponce. Ponce, who began this election cycle with around 20 percent support, may poll less than 5 percent in Sunday's primary. Finally, three-time Puerto Cortes Mayor Marlon Lara has strongly closed his campaign and may surpass Pineda Ponce in the polls which would establish his standing as the strongest challenger to Gabriela Nunez in the 2009 campaign. Key Mayoral Races Stay Close -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In Tegucigalpa, Lobo's mayoral candidate Ricardo Alvarez holds a small lead over Pastor's candidate Nasra "Tito" Asfura, 49 percent to 44 percent in the Ingenieria Gerencial poll, and a 52 percent to 45 percent lead in the Demoscopia poll. In San Pedro Sula, Lobo's mayoral candidate Arturo "Tuky" Bendana has increased his lead over Pastor's candidate (and incumbent mayor) Oscar Kilgore 48 percent to 38 percent in the Ingenieria Gerencial poll, and has a 47 percent to 36 percent lead in the Demoscopia poll. Kilgore's possible defeat represents a significant upset and does not bode well for Miguel Pastor's campaign on the north coast. On the Liberal side, in Tegucigalpa Rosenthal's candidate Eliseo Castro is tied with Zelaya's candidate Enrique "Kike" Ortez Sequeira 31 percent to 31 percent in the Ingenieria Gerencial poll, with a large number of those polled who are planning to vote in the Liberal Party primary supporting National Party candidates, despite the fact that they cannot vote Liberal Party in one race and National Party in another race. In San Pedro Sula, Zelaya's candidate Rodolfo Padilla Sunceri maintains a strong lead over Rosenthal's candidate Harry Panting 37 percent to 21 percent in the Ingenieria Gerencial poll. In La Ceiba, Pastor's candidate Ramon Leva leads Lobo's candidate Carmen de Munoz 50 percent to 40 percent, and Zelaya's candidate Nora de Dip leads Nunez's candidate Milton Simon 34 percent to 25 percent. OAS and Domestic Election Observation Missions -------------- - ¶6. (U) An OAS election observation mission will monitor a national primary for the first time ever. The Embassy is contributing 18 two-person teams to the Organization of American States' election observation mission (EOM). The OAS EOM, which has 26 people in its core group, will also have the assistance of 13 other volunteers from the international community based in Honduras. The OAS EOM will include a quick count for the presidential vote which it will provide to the Honduran Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). Fifteen of the Embassy teams will be at quick count sites. The Honduran NGO umbrella organization FOPRIDEH, with assistance from USAID, will conduct the first-ever domestic EOM with 80 two-person teams. FOPRIDEH, along with other NGOs such as ACI Participa, has been active in voter education, much of it financed by the USG. Preliminary Results and Exit Polls -------------- ¶7. (U) The TSE plans to publicly release the results of a preliminary unofficial presidential vote count to the press and on its website www.tse.hn the evening of the 20th. In addition, Ingenieria Gerencial in conjunction with the Honduran press will publicly release the results of its exit polls after the close of voting, while the Embassy has arranged for access to their exit polls throughout election day. Ingenieria Gerencial will also be conducting a quick count to which the Embassy will have access. Finally the OAS Mission will be conducting a quick count for which Embassy monitors will be providing data points. Post expects to have preliminary results for the presidential race only between 8:00 pm and 10:00 pm on Sunday evening. TSE Official Count to be Anything but Quick SIPDIS -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The TSE has a well-organized operation for the preparation and disbursal of election materials to departments and then municipalities, with the assistance of the Honduran military. The vote count is a different story. While the TSE, which has leaned heavily on the technical assistance of the Panamanian electoral authorities, has conducted several simulations of the preliminary presidential vote count and has an impressive set-up in a local hotel, plans for the official final count for president and other offices are still in flux. The same rented location and staff will be used, but some of the equipment may change. In addition, TSE technical staff told PolOffs February 15 that they were still tweaking the software for the congressional tally, and they had yet to run a full simulation of the count. While TSE officials told PolOffs they hope to have all vote counts completed in two weeks, they acknowledged this was an ambitious goal given their late start in planning and erratic preparation efforts. The political parties will have copies of the vote counts from all the electoral "tables" and will be able to conduct their own counts, which could lead to potential controversy over the results in the congressional primary elections. Post does not expect to have preliminary or final results for the congressional and municipal races for at least 2-3 days and given the TSE preparations, noted above, there could be even longer delays in getting these results. Put Your Money on Lobo and Bet the Farm on Zelaya -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) Comment: Lobo should win the National Party race, but Post does not discount the outside possibility of a Pastor rally to pull out an upset victory. Pastor's more impressive closing rally in Tegucigalpa (both in terms of turnout and organization) has led some to speculate that his campaign may be more effective at "get out the vote" efforts. There is also speculation that remaining undecided voters may break for Pastor. Post is hopeful that the National Party agreement to respect the results will lessen the possibility of fraud charges (likely to come from the Pastor camp in the event he loses). ¶10. (C) Comment continued: There is no chance that Zelaya will not win the Liberal Party nomination. In the Liberal Party camp, Mayor of Puerto Cortes Marlon Lara is set for a better-than-expected finish of 4-5 percent, while 2001 nominee Rafael Pineda Ponce may have a worse-than-expected finish of under five percent. Nunez will set herself up nicely for 2009, while Rosenthal's steady poll numbers appears to be proving the maxim that he has a high floor but also a low ceiling. The Nunez and Lara candidacies represent the only real generational leadership change in the Liberal Party in this election but both are running to position themselves for the 2009 elections. End Comment. Embassy Election Day Reporting -------------- ¶11. (U) The Embassy Political Section will coordinate efforts of Embassy OAS EOM volunteers, some of which will be observing TSE activities in Tegucigalpa. Post plans to report the evening of February 20 once preliminary presidential results are available. Interested parties in Washington can contact the Political Section at (504) 236-9320 x4820 during election day for updates. Pierce