ANTI-SECESSION LAW: CONTENTS TO DEFINE TAIWAN'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000956

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH TW
SUBJECT: ANTI-SECESSION LAW: CONTENTS TO DEFINE TAIWAN'S
REACTION

REF: A. TAIPEI 865


B. TAIPEI 934

C. TAIPEI 877

D. TAIPEI 773

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: The Chen administration is preparing two
responses to the PRC's Anti-Secession Law, depending on the
PRC draft's contents. Officials say that if the law includes
ambiguity about "one China," and no reference to the use of
"non-peaceful" means to resolve the Taiwan Strait issue, they
will simply reiterate Taiwan's position on the sovereignty of
the "Republic of China" and restart efforts towards dialogue.
If, however, the PRC law outlaws Taiwan independence
activities, asserts that Taiwan is a province of the PRC, or
states conditions for using force, Chen administration
officials say they will respond sharply. Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) Chairman Su Tseng-chang told a crowd
on March 6 that one reaction to a toughly-worded law would
include an April 500,000-plus person anti-annexation rally
led by President Chen Shui-bian. Observers say that the
contents of the PRC law could also undermine the Chen
administration's attempts to forge a working relationship
with the People First Party (PFP) and perhaps even the DPP's
broader recent shift to the political center. All of this
underscores that Taiwan domestic politics will be an
important determinant in how the DPP government reacts. End
Summary.

Preparing for Better or Worse
--------------


2. (C) National Security Council (NSC) Senior Advisor for
cross-Strait affairs Chen Chung-hsin told AIT on March 7 that
the government has reached an internal consensus on its
response to a PRC announcement on the contents of the
Anti-Secession Law. Chen said the government hopes that the
PRC law would be light on substance, but is preparing for the
worst. Chen stated that a law that referred to Taiwan simply
as "part of China" (vice the PRC),urges "peaceful
unification," and contains other ambiguous formulations would
elicit from Taiwan a restatement of its position that "the
Republic of China is a sovereign and independent country, it
belongs to the 23 million people of Taiwan, and any change to
its sovereign status will require the agreement of the Taiwan
people." After making such a pro forma response, Chen said
the government should be able to resume recent initiatives to
reopen an economic and political dialogue with Beijing.


3. (C) Chen expressed concern, however, that the PRC law may
yet contain language that Taiwan has defined as "harsh,"
despite the mild commentary by PRC leaders over the weekend.
Chen said that the government has narrowed its definitions of
a "severe" law to: 1) statement that Taiwan is a Province of
the Republic of China; 2) reference to conditions under which
"non-peaceful means" would be used to resolve the Taiwan
issue; 3) definition of "Taiwan independence activities" as
illegal. Chen warned that "we would be under immense
pressure from our Pan-Green supporters" if Beijing's law
included one or more of these formulations. At the very
least, Chen stated further economic liberalization and
efforts to bridge the "1992 consensus" (Ref A) gap would be
put on indefinite hold. Chen added that a reference to "one
country, two systems" would not be welcomed, but may not, on
its own, be considered grounds for a strong Taiwan reaction.

Warning (Loudly) of Consequences
--------------


4. (C) Chen acknowledged that DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang's
March 6 warning that President Chen Shui-bian would lead more
than a half a million people to protest the Anti-Secession
Law is among the responses to a perceived "harsh" text under
active consideration. Su made the announcement during a
DPP-organized anti-annexation rally in Taipei, despite
assurances given to AIT from the NSC on March 4 (Ref B) that
Su would not mention the President's participation at the
proposed April march. At the same March 6 venue, Premier
Frank Hsieh warned that PRC leaders would have to take full
responsibility for the reaction in Taiwan if they proceed
with action on the Anti-Secession Law.


5. (C) The DPP event was held on the same day as a public
anti-annexation protest held in Kaohsiung, organized by the
Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU). Turnout at the DPP event was
less than 1,500, while AIT/K observers estimate the Kaohsiung
crowd at no more than 15,000. Despite the modest turnout at
the two March 6 rallies, observers tell AIT they expect a
strongly-worded law to put enormous pressure on President
Chen to pull back from his recent moderate line. KMT ethnic
Taiwanese faction (bentupai) leader James Chen told AIT that
the timing for the PRC law could not have been worse. "The
TSU will ride this right into the May 14 National Assembly

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(NA) election," he warned. Chen added that if the TSU were
to perform strongly on May 14, the fury of DPP fundamentalist
anger at Chen's recent moderate line could dwarf their outcry
over Chen's February 24 meeting with PFP Chairman James Soong
(Ref C). "Chen may be forced to abandon any attempts at
compromise with the Pan-Blues just to quiet calls from his
own base for his resignation," Chen remarked.


6. (C) Presidential Office officials acknowledge this risk,
and say they are urging Soong to stand side-by-side with Chen
on the Anti-Secession Law once it is announced in order to
demonstrate that the DPP is not selling out Taiwan in
exchange for help from Soong. Chen administration officials
won a small victory towards this united front when the PFP
signed on to a Legislative Yuan (LY) resolution opposing the
Anti-Secession Law on March 4 (see para 8 for text).
However, officials remain concerned that Soong may yet break
ranks with the President over the PRC law. Lin You-chang, a
member of the Presidential Office-PFP working group, told AIT
that Chen could tolerate Soong's low-key stance before the
contents of the law are revealed (Ref D). However, Lin
warned that if Soong were to remain silent in the face of a
"harsh" Anti-Secession Law text, future DPP-PFP cooperation
on cross-Strait and other issues could be put in severe
jeopardy.

Comment: Two Choices
--------------


7. (C) On the eve of National People's Congress (NPC)
deliberation, the Chen administration appears to have
formally clarified its position over what would constitutes
an "acceptable" Anti-Secession Law text. Whether Beijing
knows or cares about Taiwan's position, however, is unclear
to officials in Taipei. Officials remain equally uncertain
over what exact steps -- protests, countervailing
legislation, a referendum, or something else -- their own
government may yet take if the PRC law does cross Taiwan's
newly defined "red lines." In the end, Chen's actions may be
dictated more by the actions of his erstwhile "allies," the
TSU and PFP, than any premeditated policy decision. In

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short, Taiwan domestic politics may be the decisive
consideration in how the DPP government responds.


8. Begin Informal AIT Translation of March 4 LY Resolution:

On behalf of the nation's citizens, the Legislative Yuan
offers the following response to Mainland China's efforts to
enact an "Anti-Secession Law":

1) Since its founding, the Republic of China has been a
sovereign, independent country. Any unilateral attempt to
change or weaken this sovereignty will require the support
and approval of the people of Taiwan and the international
community.

2) Peaceful development is not only the common value of the
international community, it is also the desire of the people
on both sides of the (Taiwan) Strait. Since the Beijing
authorities are preparing to enact an "Anti-Secession Law,"
we make the following solemn appeal: If the contents of this
law violate the rights of the Taiwan people, it will incite a
strong opposition from the Taiwan people. Beijing should
carefully consider this before proceeding.

3) The recent positive atmosphere created by the Lunar New
Year charter flights is the result of the common achievements
of the governments on both sides of the (Taiwan) Strait. We
should use this spirit of consultation and respect to create
mutually beneficial relations across the Taiwan Strait.

4) All the party caucuses of this chamber endeavor to work to
support policies that will allow for peaceful relations
across the Taiwan Strait.
End informal AIT translation.
PAAL