BREAKTHROUGH ANNOUNCED IN MARCH 19, 2004, ALLEGED

C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 000955

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC TW
SUBJECT: BREAKTHROUGH ANNOUNCED IN MARCH 19, 2004, ALLEGED
PRESIDENTIAL ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT; PAN BLUE SUSPICIOUS


Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal; Reasons: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (U) The Tainan Criminal Investigation Bureau (CIB)
announced on Monday, March 7, a breakthrough in the year-long
investigation of the March 19, 2004, shooting of President
Chen Shui-bian and Vice President Annette Lu in Tainan. CIB
Director Hou You-yi stated that law enforcement authorities
believe an unemployed 64-year old Tainan man, Chen Yi-hsiung,
was behind the assassination attempt. Chen was found drowned
in Tainan's Anping Harbor last year and CIB officials have
not yet found the gun used in the shooting.


2. (U) The CIB has concluded that Chen probably acted alone
in the assassination attempt, and that his motive was his
reported unhappiness with President Chen's leadership.
Despite the missing gun, CIB insists that all evidence points
to Chen Yi-hsiung as the attempted assassin. The gun
manufacturer and the middle men who supplied the gun all
identified Chen as the buyer. In addition, surveillance
photos from the scene of the shooting show Chen fleeing from
the area. Finally, Chen's wife testified that he had
admitted the shooting to her and had left behind letters that
detailed his involvement in the crime, although she said that
she had destroyed the letters to protect her family.


3. (U) Pan-Blue officials quickly rejected the government's
claims, charging the government is hiding the truth about the
March 2004 shooting. Following the CIB announcement, KMT
spokesman Chang Jung-kung responded that Taiwan would never
learn what really happened because the government was trying
to blame a dead person for the assassination attempt. Chang
announced that the Pan-Blue parties would go ahead with their
plan to hold a mass rally in Taipei on the March 19
anniversary to protest the shooting. People First Party
legislative whip Lee Yung-ping called the CIB investigation
absurd, charging it lacked both evidence and convincing
motive.


4. (C) Comment: Given the deep mutual distrust between Blue
and Green coalitions, the Pan-Blue camp is not likely to
accept the findings of the CIB's investigation as long as key
pieces of evidence, such as the gun, remain missing. Given
the near certainty that the police will never obtain
definitive proof of their conclusions, the investigation will
likely reinforce the deep mutual distrust between the KMT and
the Green camp.
PAAL