TAIPEI MAYOR MA WILL SEEK KMT CHAIRMANSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000632

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: TAIPEI MAYOR MA WILL SEEK KMT CHAIRMANSHIP

REF: 04 TAIPEI 04007

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: In a move that may dramatically alter the
future direction of the KMT, Taipei City Mayor and KMT Vice
Chairman Ma Ying-jeou announced on February 14 he intends to
run for party chairman. Current Chairman Lien Chan has
publicly claimed that he favors a leadership transition, but
rumors abound that Lien intends to remain in his current
position. Ma's long-time rival, Legislative Yuan (LY)
President Wang Jin-pyng, has recently come out in public
behind Lien's remaining as chairman for another term.
Although many in the KMT are still guarded about their
allegiance, Ma's announcement has already lifted the spirits
of reformists within the KMT. Conservatives, who would
likely lose both power and financial security under a Ma-led
KMT, have been quick to criticize Ma's candidacy. They are
likely to seek to use their control over the KMT apparatus to
block Ma. End Summary.

The (Belated) First Salvo
--------------


2. (C) Taipei City Mayor and KMT Vice Chairman Ma Ying-jeou
on February 14 openly stated for the first time his intention
to seek the KMT Chairman position. When asked by reporters
whether he would seek the KMT's top post, Ma replied that he
would "give it a try," setting the stage for a major showdown
with the KMT establishment over the party's future. Ma said
he was willing to compete against LY President and fellow KMT
Vice Chairman Wang Jin-pyng for the chairmanship, adding that
the election should be held in an open and direct way.


3. (C) Current Chairman Lien Chan had said earlier during the
Lunar New Year holiday that he favored gradually turning the
party over to the next generation of politicians.
Nevertheless, Lien was reportedly brusque when Ma broached
the issue of running for the KMT's top post when the two met
twice earlier in February. A number of older KMT
heavyweights have recently advocated Lien's remaining in
office for another term.

Wang: The Loyalist with an Agenda
--------------


4. (C) Long-time Ma rival Wang Jin-pyng publicly wished Ma
the best in the election, however, he stated that he intended
to support Lien for the chairmanship if Lien wishes to
remain. Su Chi, a long-time Lien advisor and newly-elected
KMT Legislator, told AIT that Wang's statements are an
attempt to ingratiate himself and portray Ma's candidacy as a
challenge to Lien. Su explained that Wang is hoping that
Lien would openly endorse him as his heir apparent and throw
the weight of the KMT party machine behind Wang's candidacy.

A Free and Fair Election?
--------------


5. (C) How the KMT party apparatus organizes the upcoming
election may decide the next chairman. KMT Overseas Affairs
Director Ho Szu-yin told AIT on February 15 that in the wake
of Ma's announcement, the KMT Organizational Development
Committee hastily convened to figure out how a leadership
election would proceed. Saying that a two-man race for the
chairmanship is a positive development, Ho said that "the KMT
has to go through this growing pain." He explained that in
order for the party to continue reforming it is extremely
important that the new chairman not be hand-picked by the
party elite. However, he admitted that the KMT has never
faced a truly democratic leadership election and would need
time to work out the procedures. Ho pointed out that there
are 1.02 million members on paper and the party does not know
whether voting rights should be limited to those members who
have paid their annual registration fee or be extended to all
card carrying members.


6. (C) KMT reformists tell AIT that Lien and Wang are likely
to try to limit the voting pool in order to exploit their
influence within the Pan-Blue organization. Wang has long
cultivated support within the KMT party apparatus, both at
the senior level in Taipei and among various local chapters.
In contrast, Ma has assiduously avoided involvement in party
operations, in part to maintain his squeaky clean public
image. Ma advisors say that an open race among the entire
KMT membership would clearly favor the popular Taipei Mayor,
but they fear that KMT conservatives will restrict the voting
poll to party activists.

Friends and Foes
--------------


7. (C) While longtime Ma supporters Taichung City Mayor Jason
Hu and Taoyuan County Magistrate Eric Chu have publicly
lauded Ma as the "best choice," other key supporters have
been more cautious. Su Chi told AIT that most KMT
legislators are currently unwilling to reveal their
allegiances. Su pointed out that, because Wang is the LY
speaker, KMT Legislators cannot afford to alienate him. KMT
conservatives have been less circumspect. A number of
influential KMT party elders have openly criticized Ma for
considering a run for party leadership. One KMT senior
advisor, Hsu Li-nung, who is 86 years old, criticized Ma as
"too young" to serve as chairman (Comment: Ma is 54, one year
older than President Chen Shui-bian. End Comment). Former
Control Yuan President Wang Zuo-rong told reporters on
February 14 that Ma should do a better job as Taipei Mayor
before he even thinks about the party chairmanship.
Recently, Ma's popularity hit record lows in several polls
after a series of incidents permitted criticisms of his
handling of Taipei's health care system. KMT insiders told
AIT that the old guard actually prefers People First Party
(PFP) Chairman James Soong to return as KMT Chairman
(Septel). Ma responded to KMT conservative critics of his
candidacy, telling a local KMT chapter on February 15 that he
is confident he can handle being both Taipei Mayor and KMT
Chairman.

Comment: A High Stakes Battle
--------------


8. (C) KMT reformists have waited impatiently for nearly two
years (since Lien started to court the PFP) for Ma to
challenge the party old guard and lead the party back to the
Taiwan political mainstream. Ma's announcement most likely
shocked KMT conservatives, who had sought to portray the
KMT's better than expected December 11 election showing as a
vindication of their leadership approach. For the current
KMT leadership, more is at stake in the upcoming party
election than the post of party chairman. If Ma succeeds, he
is likely to build on the reform efforts he started as
Justice Minister and seek fundamental changes in the party's
structure, financing, and political orientation.
Conservatives and party stalwarts have much to lose in a
serious reform effort and are not likely to give up without a
fight. However, Ma has just as much to lose by allowing Lien
and his coterie to postpone KMT reforms for another four
years.
PAAL