CROSS-STRAIT DEVELOPMENTS: POLITICS AND FUNERALS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 005034

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW
SUBJECT: CROSS-STRAIT DEVELOPMENTS: POLITICS AND FUNERALS
NO, ECONOMICS YES

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: While the PRC's rejection of Straits
Exchange Foundation (SEF) Chairman Chang Chun-hsiung's offer
to attend the funeral of Association for Relations Across the
Taiwan Strait (ARATS) Chairman Wang Daohan is regrettable,
the rejection was not unexpected, SEF Vice Chairman Michael
You (Ying-lung) told AIT on December 28. ARATS does not
want to give any impression that it is resuming the contact
with SEF that it cut off in 1999 following then President Lee
Teng-hui's "two-state theory," You explained. Although
prospects are dim for the resumption of cross-Strait
dialogue, You said, Taiwan does hope to open PRC tourism to
Taiwan and regular cross-Strait charter flights, especially
cargo flights, during the coming year. Kuomintang (KMT)
Mainland Affairs Director Chang Jung-kung agreed on the
likelihood of some positive cross-Strait developments in
non-political areas and discussed KMT plans to further
develop its own relations with the Chinese Communist Party
(CCP). End Summary.


2. (C) Michael You, Vice Chairman of the Mainland Affairs
Council (MAC) and Vice Chairman and Secretary General of the
Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF),told AIT on December 28
that ARATS had sent SEF a letter that morning turning down
the offer for SEF Chairman Chang Chun-hsiung to attend the
funeral for ARATS Chairman Wang Daohan in Shanghai on
December 30. The letter from ARATS stated that the family of
Wang Daohan had indicated through the Xinhua News Agency that
Wang wished a simple funeral ceremony. In keeping with this
principle, ARATS declined SEF Chairman Chang's offer to
attend the funeral.


3. (C) Michael You said the ARATS decision was regrettable
but not totally unexpected because the PRC does not want to
create any impression that ARATS and SEF are resuming
contact. The situation was slightly different when ARATS
officials Sun Yafu and Li Yafei attended SEF Chairman Koo
Chen-fu,s funeral last February, he explained, because Sun
and Li attended as personal representatives of Wang Daohan
and not as ARATS officials. Michael You noted that, in
addition to representatives of Lien Chan and the pan-Blue
political parties, the PRC has also invited Koo's widow and
several former SEF officials (who served prior to the
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chen Shui-bian
administration) to attend Wang,s funeral. The ARATS
decision in this case, he observed, suggests that prior to
Taiwan's 2008 presidential election, the PRC may maintain its
position of preventing contact between ARATS and SEF.
Michael You expressed hope the United States would understand
the situation and urge Beijing to reopen dialogue and improve
cross-Strait relations. On a more positive note, Michael You
said Taiwan hopes there can be quick movement on regular
charter flights, especially cargo flights, and on PRC tourism
to Taiwan, following the spring charter flights.


4. (C) Chang Jung-kung, Director of the Kuomintang (KMT)
Central Committee Mainland Affairs Department, suggested to
AIT on December 28 that Wang Daohan's family did not invite
Chang Chun-hsiung because they have no personal connection to
the current SEF leader. By contrast, ARATS did have such
connections with Koo Chen-fu and attended Koo's funeral at
the invitation of Koo's family. The DPP had welcomed ARATS'
attendance at Koo's funeral because ARATS had no
preconditions for the visit. In the current case, however,
the PRC does not want to give any impression that it is
willing to resume ARATS-SEF contact without preconditions.


5. (C) Chang said he expects the two sides to agree on
opening PRC tourism to Taiwan and regular cross-Strait
charter flights within the next six months and also for
Taiwan to somewhat relax its restrictions on investment in
the Mainland. Chen Shui-bian hopes to open cargo flights,
while China wants to open passenger and cargo charter flights
at the same time, Chang said. Chen's interest in taking such
steps is due to pressure from big businesses such as
Evergreen, which have in the past supported Chen but are now
quite critical of the president, he added.


6. (C) The KMT plans to reapply for permission for PRC
Taiwan Affairs Office Director Chen Yunlin to visit Taiwan to
attend a KMT-CCP economic and trade forum in Taiwan that the
DPP government has previously turned down, Chang said. The
KMT wants at least TAO Deputy Director Li Bingcai to attend
to make the forum worthwhile. Chang noted that he has passed
a message to the DPP suggesting that though Chen Yunlin will
not have contact with DPP officials, the DPP government will
still benefit because the visit will take place under DPP
authorization. In addition, Chang suggested, a Chen Yunlin
visit will guarantee that there will be no cross-Strait
problems before 2008. If the government again turns down the
application for Chen Yunlin, the economic forum may have to
be held in China or Hong Kong, Chang suggested.


7. (C) Chang noted that then KMT Chairman Lien Chan and PRC
President Hu Jintao agreed last April to hold a KMT-CCP forum
on peace and military issues, in addition to the economic
forum. The PLA, however, has raised questions about the
appropriateness of discussing cross-Strait confidence
building measures, so this forum is still pending, Chang
said. The KMT also plans to propose a visit by Vice Chairman
Chiang Ping-kun to China this coming spring to continue
discussions with the PRC on measures to protect the interests
of Taiwan businesspeople on the Mainland.


8. (C) KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou does not plan to visit the
Mainland, Chang said, but he does play a key role on KMT
cross-Strait policy. The general KMT policy framework is set
by the agreements between Lien and Hu and between Chiang
Ping-kun and Chen Yunlin. Proposed initiatives under these
agreements are submitted to the KMT Policy Committee,
Secretary General Chan Chuen-po, and Chairman Ma Ying-jeou

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for review and approval and Lien Chan is also kept informed.
While there are no differences on cross-Strait policy between
Ma and other KMT leaders, Ma is careful and, for example,
turned down travel to China by local politicians during the
recent local election period. Chang also said that he has
some hope that if the KMT wins the presidential election in
2008, the PRC will agree to dialogue without preconditions
with the "Chinese Kuomintang" government, noting that he had
heard a PRC think tank has made such a suggestion to
President Hu Jintao.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The good news is that there may be positive
cross-Strait developments during 2006 in areas such as
regular charter flights and PRC tourism to Taiwan. The bad
news is that prospects remain dim for any dialogue between
the PRC and the DPP administration or its representatives.
The fundamentalist wing in the DPP and outside critics such
as Lee Teng-hui make it very unlikely the DPP will stray from
basic political positions to which the PRC objects.
By choosing not to propose that Taiwan figures attend Wang's
funeral in their personal capacity, Taiwan officials knew
they would not be welcomed, something useful to the DPP in
portraying China as the unreasonable party. In addition,
expectations are strong and growing in Taiwan, even among
many in the DPP, that the KMT will regain power in the 2008
presidential election. Given this dynamic, the PRC may have
even less incentive to engage the DPP government.
PAAL