DOES KMT CHAIRMAN MA HAVE AN INNER CIRCLE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004954

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR TW
SUBJECT: DOES KMT CHAIRMAN MA HAVE AN INNER CIRCLE?

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary. Only five months after being overwhelmingly
elected KMT Chairman, Ma Ying-jeou, also Mayor of Taipei, has
emerged as the presumptive KMT nominee for president in 2008.
As the KMT's prospective presidential candidate, Ma will
need to take positions on cross-Strait policy, defense
spending, KMT reform and campaign strategy, and a host of
other complicated issues. This cable is the first of several
intended to shed light on Ma's leadership style and
decision-making process, and to identify his primary
advisers. This cable focuses on Ma's advisers within the
academic community. End Summary.

Ma's Circle of Academic Advisors
--------------


2. (C) One of KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou's sources of
expertise is an informal circle of academics that advises him
on international relations matters. KMT International
Affairs Director and National Chengchi University professor
Ho Szu-yin, a member of this group, told AIT December 16
that while Ma was serving as law professor at National
Chengchi University in 1981-1993, he formed personal
friendships with a number of people in the Taiwan academic
community, many of whom he continues to call on for advice on
domestic and international policy issues. Ho identified Min
Zhu-zheng, Bao Zhong-he, Gao Lang, and Chu Yun-han of
National Taiwan University's Political Science Department,
and himself and Dong Bao-cheng of National Chengchi
University's Law School, as those perhaps most often
consulted by Ma. Ho added that to his knowledge, Ma has no
formal, regularized meetings to discuss policy issues, but
instead conducts discussions with these former academic
colleagues on an ad-hoc basis. Ho said Ma, like the former
academic he is, actively seeks out various viewpoints, and
favors open and active debate within this group of informal
advisers.

Ma's Cross-Strait Views
--------------


3. (C) Ho told AIT that based on his private conversations
with Ma and on Ma's public statements, Chairman Ma's
cross-Strait policy can be boiled down to two main
principles: continue dtente diplomacy with China, while
maintaining a strong defense for Taiwan. Ho said Ma
"believes deeply" in the Republic of China, and is "very
anti-communist." He pointed out that while virtually all of
Ma's advisers have visited the Mainland, Ma himself has
steadfastly refused to go. Ho explained that Ma "will not go
for reunification in name or substance" and will go no
further than to accept a "One China, Different
Interpretations" characterization of the "92 Consensus." Ho
noted that he and others he considers part of Ma's
"international relations team" believe that Taiwan's
acceptance of this version of the '92 Consensus would satisfy
the PRC such that cross-Strait relations could move forward.

KMT Power Dynamics
--------------


4. (C) Ho told AIT that the KMT's landslide victory on
December 3 had put control of the KMT firmly in Ma's hands,
effectively neutralizing any potential threat from LY Speaker
Wang Jin-pyng. Ho stressed that while he can no longer
challenge Ma's leadership of the party, Wang is not isolated,
and can still leverage his ability to mobilize voters and to
integrate local factions to gain influence within the party.
According to Ho, Wang also has a small cabal of LY members
who remain loyal to him personally and would vote as he
instructed. As such, Ho said, it is reasonable to expect
that Wang will remain at the top of the KMT's "at-large"
ticket during the next LY election, in order to maintain a
strong KMT coalition within the LY.


5. (C) The relationship between Ma and former KMT Chairman
Lien Chan, Ho continued, is "congenial but not particularly
warm." Ma understands that close involvement in cross-Strait
affairs can only hurt him at this point, and therefore is
happy for Lien, in his capacity as Director of the
KMT-sponsored National Policy Foundation (NPF) thinktank, to
remain the front man for the party's cross-Strait portfolio.
Ma and Lien speak frequently, Ho told AIT, and both men have
expressed a "willingness to exchange ideas." Ho said
communication between Lien and Ma is also assured since many
senior members of the KMT Party Secretariat also work at the
NPF.


6. (C) Comment: While Ho's characterization of Ma's
informal advisers may be accurate, it is also true that this
group is jockeying to survive the Lien-Ma transition and to
gain influence. Therefore, AIT cautions it may take
additional time to get a reliable picture of Ma's methods as
Chairman. End Comment.

Bio Note on Ho Szu-yin
--------------


7. (C) Prof. Ho Szu-yin was formerly Director of National
Chengchi University's highly respected Institute of
International Relations. He stepped down in 2003 after KMT
Chairman Lien Chan recruited him to serve as Director of the
KMT International Affairs office. Ho was not a party member
before Lien's invitation, and joined the party only when he
accepted the offered position. Ho told AIT that, despite his
KMT position, he is still considered "part of the academic
community" both within and outside of the KMT.
PAAL