TAIWAN DEFENSE PROCUREMENT AFTER THE KMT ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 004920 SIPDIS STATE PASS AIT/W E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL MASS MARR PINR TW SUBJECT: TAIWAN DEFENSE PROCUREMENT AFTER THE KMT ELECTION LANDSLIDE REF: A. TAIPEI 4415 ¶B. TAIPEI 4598 ¶C. TAIPEI 4159 Classified By: AIT Director Douglas H. Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D) ¶1. (C) Summary. In the aftermath of the landslide KMT victory in local elections on December 3, tentative efforts have emerged to move forward Taiwan's long-stalled Defense Special Budget. Some KMT legislators have indicated a willingness to reconsider the Special Budget weapons systems (P-3C surveillance aircraft and diesel electric submarines) on the condition they are shifted from a "special budget" into the regular defense budget. Acknowledging that similar promises in the past came to naught, KMT insiders insist the situation is different now, with the KMT victory and the ascent of Chairman Ma Ying-jeou to unquestioned leadership of the party. In public, however, Ma cautions that shifting into the regular budget will not ensure final Pan-Blue support. Individual KMT legislators, moreover, continue to express in private and in public their determination to prevent the PAC-3 missiles, "zeroed out" of the regular budget in November, from being reconsidered before a requisite three-year waiting period. End Summary. Signs of KMT Flexibility -------------- ¶2. (C) A number of Pan-Blue opposition legislators have told AIT in the two weeks since the December 3 election that they are willing to reconsider the weapons included in the current Defense Procurement Special Budget (P-3C surveillance aircraft and diesel electric submarines) and to discuss increasing the regular defense budget to 3 percent of GDP. KMT legislators Ting Shou-chung and Shuai Hua-ming, both members of the Legislative Yuan (LY) Defense Committee, announced December 14 that they will not vote against the Defense Special Budget items if they are shifted into the regular annual defense budget. They also noted approvingly recent USG expressions of hope that Taiwan will increase its annual defense budget to 3 percent of GDP. KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou separately told the press the same day that KMT legislators opposed to the Defense Special Budget can now support it if the government agrees to move it into the regular defense budget, though he qualified this support two days later, saying that the budget must not be excessive and must fit Taiwan's defense needs. �0A; ¶3. (C) The KMT's Pan-Blue Coalition partner, People First Party (PFP),the most stalwart opponent of the Defense Special Budget over the past sixteen months, also shows glimmers of flexibility. PFP legislator Christina Liu (I-ju) told AIT that the December 3 election has altered the picture on defense procurement. PFP Chairman James Soong, she explained, came out against the Defense Procurement Special Budget last spring to differentiate the PFP from the KMT and set the stage for his early May visit to Mainland China and the May 14 National Assembly election. PFP's poor performance in that election and, again, on December 3, she said, showed that Soong's effort to differentiate PFP from KMT "did not work." Thus, Liu said, she expects Soong to be more flexible in the future on the Defense Special Budget weapons systems, particularly if they are moved into the regular defense budget. Possible Solutions -------------- ¶4. (C) The Chen government has publicly raised the idea of submitting a supplemental or extra budget (see Ref A) to the spring LY session beginning February 2006 to shift weapon system(s) from the Defense Special Budget into the regular defense budget. One MND official told the press that this would involve only the P-3C surveillance aircraft, since the submarines are too expensive to be covered under the regular budget. For their part, Ma and Pan-Blue legislators have stated that they are seeking a Pan-Blue consensus on the issue and will propose a way forward for the DPP to consider before the Spring LY session begins in February. ¶5. (C) Pan-Blue legislators tell AIT that they have their own priorities among the three Defense Special Budget weapons systems. KMT legislator and former Foreign Minister John Chiang (Hsiao-yan) told AIT that he and other defense-minded KMT legislators see the P-3C's as the most important of the three weapons systems. PAC-III missiles, he said, have been effectively eliminated from consideration by the November LY vote that "zeroed out" the missiles from the regular defense budget, to which they had been shifted from the Defense Special Budget (Ref B). Of the two remaining weapons systems, Chiang said, he and other KMT legislators are particularly interested in the P-3C surveillance aircraft because they are "clearly defensive," unlike the submarines which can be seen as offensive. This view, however, is not universal, as KMT legislators Ting and Shuai specifically enumerated their support for the submarines. Chairman Ma -------------- ¶6. (C) Political figures, both Blue and Green, tell AIT that Chairman Ma Ying-jeou will be pivotal to the KMT's stance on the Defense Special Budget weapons systems in the weeks ahead. DPP legislator and Defense Committee Member Shen Fa-hui told AIT that he sees Chairman Ma as central to KMT policies, and that the future of large-item defense procurement in Taiwan will depend on what stance Ma takes. KMT Secretary General Chan Chun-po told AIT prior to the December 3 election that Ma was extremely unhappy with some of the more radical and uncompromising acts of KMT legislators (he mentioned the deep cuts Pan-Blue legislators imposed on the Mainland Affairs Council) and said Ma would seek to increase his influence over the party's legislative caucus. Ma met with the KMT legislative caucus on December 15 and, for the first time, held a broad-ranging discussion with the KMT legislators over the party's legislative policies and coordination. ¶7. (C) KMT legislator Lu Shiou-yen, one of the three conveners of the LY National Defense Committee and one of Ma's nominees to the 31-member KMT Central Standing, told AIT that Ma is a realist, not an ideologue, who believes defense procurement should not be an ideological issue. Passage of at least some portions of the Special Defense Budget, she explained, will be necessary for Ma to establish his bona fides as a leader. DPP legislator and former Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Chairwoman Tsai Ying-wen told AIT that the next six months will offer a window of opportunity to move forward on defense procurement, because Chairman Ma will need, she said, to demonstrate that he can lead on national security in order to be a viable presidential candidate in ¶2008. This will entail, Tsai suggested, a job of repackaging the Defense Special Budget weapons systems, noting that missiles will now be the most difficult weapons system to pass because of their rejection by the LY in November. The U.S., she argued, can play a positive, facilitative role in expressing support for repackaging the Defense Special Budget in order to give Pan-BLue legislators cover for dropping their objections. ¶8. (C) KMT International Affairs Director and Chengchih University professor Ho Szu-yin told AIT December 16 that Chairman Ma had told him he has no qualms about buying weapons from the U.S. Purely as a domestic political matter, however, Ma said to Ho that he could not support weapons acquisition when funded via the "special budget" process. Ma, Ho continued, also supports increasing Taiwan's annual defense budget from 2.24 to 3 percent of GDP. Recent public statements by prominent KMT legislators, Ho continued, means there is a "real chance for movement" on the defense procurement issue. Presidential Advisor and Special Affairs Director-General Gary Tseng (Tien-tzu) told the Deputy Director December 15 that the Chen administration has been discussing defense procurement and the defense budget with the KMT over the past several weeks. At the same time, KMT and PFP have held intra-Pan Blue discussions on arms procurement which, Chairman Ma announced, agreed that Taiwan should maintain a suitable defense capability but should not purchase excess U.S. arms like a "wealthy fool" (kaizi jungou) ¶9. (C) Press reports imply that the main KMT hold-out to this reconsideration of defense procurement is KMT legislator Su Chi, who was instrumental in the LY November 9 vote "zeroing-out" the PAC-3 missiles. Su, however, told AIT on December 16 that the press had misinterpreted his reservations about the KMT legislators' initiative. The critical issue, he argued, is for Taiwan to purchase weapons systems that are deliverable quickly and in quantities sufficient to substantially upgrade Taiwan defense, and they must be exclusively defensive weapons. "I am essentially describing the P-3C aircraft," he said. He dismissed PAC-3 missiles on the grounds that they had been voted down, and rejected submarines as "offensive weapons" that would increase cross-Strait tensions. Comment: Been There, Done That -------------- ¶10. (C) The caveat to the indications of possible movement on defense procurement is that we have been here before. As they voted against the Defense Special Budget week after week through Spring 2005, opposition Pan-Blue legislators urged the government to shift funding for the three weapons systems from the "fiscally irresponsible" and legislatively "unmanageable" special budget process into the regular annual defense budget. When the government moved the PAC-3 missiles into the regular defense budget in September, however, opposition Pan-Blue legislators "zeroed-out" the PAC-3's altogether, claiming this system had been voted down in the March 2004 defensive referendum. The ascent of Chairman Ma and the KMT landslide victory on December 3 has altered the situation, and Ma has already moved gingerly beyond his earlier noncommittal stance to cautious support for reconsidering the items remaining in the Defense Special Budget and increasing the annual defense budget. He has also moved to establish closer coordination with, and oversight of, the KMT Legislative Caucus. Nevertheless, KMT reported willingness to "consider" the Defense Special Budget weapons systems is still just that -- a promise only to discuss defense procurement in the LY. Ma himself has had little experience and little time recently to develop firm views on Taiwan's defense needs. He will undoubtedly need more time to move beyond what is a slightly more flexible expression of former Chairman Lien Chan's unforthcoming positions. At the December 17 inauguration ceremony for the two Kidd destroyers, President Chen announced his intention to increase defense spending to the 3 percent level by 2008 and called on the opposition to pass the Defense Special Budget. Chen's pledges, however, are meaningless without opposition KMT support, and his criticisms of Pan-Blue opposition in that speech probably pushed Ma to respond the following day with further caveats on KMT willingness to reconsider the Defense Special Budget, stating that the LY should undertake a thorough review of Taiwan's weapons needs. It remains unclear whether he would prefer to have the weapon systems over having an issue that makes the Pan-Blue look bad at home and in Washington. PAAL