MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS, U.S.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004901

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC
BARBORIAK
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS, U.S.
ARMS PROCUREMENTS


1. Summary: Major Chinese-language Taiwan dailies focused
their coverage December 16 on local political issues such as
the planned Cabinet reshuffle and the race for DPP
chairmanship in January 2006. The centrist "China Times"
and pro-unification "United Daily News" each carried in
their inside pages the results of their separate poll
surveys on the race for DPP chairmanship. The "China Times"
opinion survey showed that 28 percent of respondents said
they support Yu Shyi-kun, who resigned Thursday from his
position as the Secretary-General of the Presidential
Office to run for DPP chairman, while 18 percent said they
believe Vice President Annette Lu is the best candidate for
the position. The same poll also showed that President Chen
Shui-bian's approval rating has dropped to 28 percent while
55 percent of those polled said they are displeased with
Chen's performance. The "United Daily News" poll showed
similar results for the DPP chairperson race: 40 percent of
respondents said they support Yu whereas 23 percent said
they would vote for Lu.

With regard to U.S. arms procurement, the pro-independence
"Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest daily, ran a banner
headline on its page two that quoted Legislative Yuan
President Wang Jin-pyng as saying: "Bian Agrees to U.S.
Suggestion to Increase [Taiwan's] Military Spending to 3% of
GDP."


2. Two opinion pieces in the Chinese-language dailies
discussed the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. Professor Yang
Yung-ming of National Taiwan University said in the mass-
circulated "Apple Daily" that, given the rapid changes in
U.S.-China relations and cross-Strait relations lately, U.S.
arms sales to Taiwan is no longer a pure military issue but
a key factor concerning complicated cross-Strait relations
and cross-Strait peace. Professor Chang Ya-chung of
National Taiwan University, however, questioned the U.S.
arms deal with Taiwan in the pro-unification "United Daily
News." According to Chang, the speed of capital outflow
from the island will definitely be faster than that of U.S.
soldiers coming to Taiwan should a war break out across the
Taiwan Strait. End summary.


1. U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations

"Both Cooperation and Conflict Are Seen in the East Asia
Region"

Yang Yung-ming, professor of political science at National
Taiwan University, wrote in an opinion piece in the mass-
circulated "Apple Daily" [circulation: 500,000] (12/16):

". The East Asia area also faces two challenges with regard
to security protection, namely, the competition for power
between various nations in the region and the flashpoints on
the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan Strait. The U.S.-China
relationship and Japan-China relationship are the focus of
competition for power [in the region]. In the meantime,
China's rise has re-allocated the power [balance] in the
region in the economic, diplomatic and energy spheres, thus
altering the interactions between big nations in the region.
.

"Following [Taiwan's] presidential and legislative elections
in 2004, it seems `no news is good news' can best describe
the current situation across the Taiwan Strait. The focus
of cross-Strait relations, however, now lies in the issue of
[U.S.] arms procurement. . Given Taiwan's democratization
[process], rapid and substantive changes in the U.S.-China
relations and cross-Strait relations, and the current East
Asia environment strongly impacted by China's peaceful
rising, U.S. arms sales to Taiwan is no longer a pure
military issue but a key factor concerning complicated cross-
Strait relations and cross-Strait peace. The arms deal has
also become a major part of the triangular relationship
between Washington, Beijing and Taipei. ."


2. U.S. Arms Procurement

"[Enhancing the Island's] Military Strength in Order to
Protect Taiwan? Capital Outflow Will Be Faster Than U.S.
Soldiers' Coming to Taiwan [Should a War Break out in the
Taiwan Strait]."

Chang Ya-chung, professor of political science at National
Taiwan University, commented in an opinion piece in the pro-
unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000]
(12/16):

"Local newspapers reported that the United States hopes
Taiwan could increase its annual defense budget to 3% of its
GDP so that the island will have an additional defense
budget of NT$50 to 60 billion. Washington believes that
this is the only way Taiwan can demonstrate its
determination and capability to defend itself. . The United
States' motive is very clear; what it wants is simply the
[monetary] sum of Taiwan's purchases to [flow to] the United
States. .

"Should Taiwan buy weapons to prove the Taiwan people's
determination to defend the island, or should it use
political and economic means to safeguard Taiwan? Should
any military conflict break out across the Taiwan Strait,
what else can Taiwan do other than defend itself for two
weeks? The speed of globalized capital outflow [from the
island] will definitely be faster than the arrival of U.S.
soldiers to Taiwan. How could Taiwan convince foreign
businesses to stay on the island if it is constantly under
the threat of military conflict? American and European
firms warn Taiwan about the island's failure to initiate
direct transportation with China, not its failure to buy
enough weapons. .

"Let's get to the bottom [of it]. Can Taiwan rely on its
military strength to safeguard the island's safety? Can
Taiwan really and fully trust the United States to protect
the island? Can Taiwan's financial status really sustain
its increasing defense budget? If all the answers are no,
then what is the reason behind Taiwan's eagerness to buy
weapons and increase its national defense budget? .

"Of course we do not deny that Beijing will not easily
renounce the use of force [against Taiwan], but we must
understand that Taiwan enjoys a surplus as much as over
NT$30 billion each year from its trade with China. The
mistrust between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait can
still be possibly resolved, and we should no longer blindly
believe that military strength can be used as a strong
support. Just remember that it is Washington's Asia-Pacific
strategy that [Taiwan should enhance] `its military strength
to protect the island;' it is not a necessity for Taiwan. ."

PAAL