INPR PRESIDENT TIEN HUNG-MAO ON 1992 CONSENSUS AND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004899 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC BARBORIAK DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW SUBJECT: INPR PRESIDENT TIEN HUNG-MAO ON 1992 CONSENSUS AND CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS ¶1. Summary: The centrist, pro-status quo, Chinese-language daily "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] reported Friday that Tien Hung-mao, former Foreign Minister and a long-time Taiwan independence advocate, suggested the DPP should consider accepting the 1992 Consensus in dealing with cross- Strait relations. Full text translation of the story follows. End Summary. ¶2. "Tien Hung-mao: Only by Returning to the `1992 Consensus' Can Bian Hold Sway" by Chiang Hui-chen, China Times page A13, December 16, 2005. ¶3. "Commenting on how to break the cross-Strait stalemate after the pan-Blue camp won a landslide victory in the three- in-one elections, former Foreign Minister Tien Hung-mao urged the DPP government to start cross-Strait negotiations and to especially take the initiative or leadership [in this endeavor]. In order to do so, it must seriously consider `whether to return to the basis of the 1992 consensus.' This is because if the KMT becomes the ruling party, the KMT's basic cross-Strait policy will be to return to the 1992 Consensus." "The China Times Cultural Foundation and the Taipei City Government's Department of Cultural Affairs co-sponsored the `The Future of Taiwan and the Two Sides Across the Strait' seminar yesterday. Panelists included former Foreign Minister and President of the Institute for National Policy Research Tien Hung-mao, Taichung City mayor and former Foreign Minister Jason Hu, former Mainland Affairs Council Chairman Su Chi, and DPP Legislator Lin Cho-hsui. Tien, who has strongly supported Taiwan independence since his younger days, boldly suggested that the [Chen Shui-]bian government return to the 1992 Consensus. This made Su Chi respond by saying "[I] admire you very much!" "Tien Hung-mao said he has been advocating Taiwan independence since the 1970s when he was a young student. In the past 30-some years, he has visited the mainland many times, providing close and insightful observations of China's changes. In his view, Chinese President Hu Jintao's remarks from his inauguration until now indicate that Hu is unlikely a `pro-speedy unification' person. For Taiwan, there is currently no threat of immediate unification. Therefore, it would be highly difficult to realize `de jure independence' by amending the Constitution." "Tien believes that the DPP government should think of ways to take the initiative or leadership position in cross- Strait political talks and negotiations. To this end, it must seriously consider `whether to return to the basis of the 1992 consensus.' This is because if the KMT becomes the ruling party, the KMT's basic cross-Strait policy will be to return to the 1992 Consensus. Now [is the time for the DPP to decide] whether the DPP wants to take the leading role on cross-Strait negotiations." "Jason Hu used the `traffic light concept' to describe cross- Strait relations. He thinks Taiwan does not want to see hostility, rivalry, discrimination and confrontation across the Strait. However, in the areas of national defense, military affairs and foreign relations, [there is] a red light [flashing] now. Even after Lien Chan's visit to the mainland, China did not relax its restraint on [Taiwan's] cross-Strait military and foreign relations. But cross- Strait economic and trade cooperation, investment reciprocity, document certification, cultural exchanges, and industrial collaboration are all [seeing] the green light [now]." "Hu said Taiwan does not need to push [forward] in the areas flashing red. The government should stop and [consider creating] a `yellow light' area. This requires communication, coordination and dialogue. At least [the government] should create an atmosphere, a `yellow light' atmosphere, favorable for dialogue. Then one can hope the `green light' will [eventually] appear." "Regarding the `peaceful rise of China' theory, which has attracted much attention around the world, Hu said Americans believe China's peaceful rise equates to a military threat. Nevertheless, regardless of [China's] rising military strength, the most important factor is the mainland's economic rise and its ambition to become the world's number one market. The rise of China's economic strength should never be ignored in the future." "Hu believes it will be difficult for Taiwan in the short term to have any breakthrough in national defense, foreign relations and military affairs. He suggested Taiwan aim for a `soft landing' and watch the mainland from an international perspective. It should spare no effort to promote exchanges between private and non-governmental organizations. Secondly, it should try to sign free trade agreements with the United States and Japan as soon as possible and sign informal peace and friendship agreements with ASEAN nations and even with mainland China. What Taiwan should deliberate is whether it should fundamentally resolve the issue of [China's] military threat. As a member of the East Asian region, `we cannot just watch the train run while only chasing after it!'" PAAL