THE GRAND PRIZE ELECTION - TAIPEI COUNTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004775 SIPDIS STATE PASS AIT/W E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2015 TAGS: PGOV TW SUBJECT: THE GRAND PRIZE ELECTION - TAIPEI COUNTY REF: A. TAIPEI 4748 ¶B. TAIPEI 4403 Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Taipei County magistrate contest remains too close to call, but AIT's contacts, local observers, and media and political party polls consistently indicate that opposition Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Chou Hsi-wei enjoys a slight lead over ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Luo Wen-jia heading into the election on Saturday, December 3. The KMT and DPP are treating Taipei County as the key race in the final days of campaigning, because the county's large size gives it strategic importance heading into the 2008 presidential election and because both sides believe the contest is still in play. Hoping to overtake Chou at the finish line, Luo and the DPP have stepped up the campaign tempo, focusing on mobilizing Green base voters. In response, the KMT is also concentrating its final campaign push in Taipei County, hoping to win back control from the DPP of Taiwan's largest election district. The leaders of both parties will focus their final campaign pushes in Taipei County. End Summary. ¶2. (C) The population of Taipei County equals the combined population of twelve of the other twenty-two counties and cities that are holding elections on Saturday. The KMT regards north Taiwan as its turf and believes that winning back control of key Taipei County after sixteen years is an important step in its effort to return to power in the 2008 presidential election. In addition, these are the first elections contested under the leadership of KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou. Ma is Mayor of Taipei City, and a KMT victory in the adjacent Taipei County will further boost Ma's image as a winner prior to his expected run for the presidency in 2008. ¶3. (C) The ruling DPP hopes to prevent Taipei County from falling into KMT hands because losing control of Taiwan's largest district would make it that much more difficult to hold on to the presidency in 2008, and because such a defeat would be a potent symbol of DPP decline and difficulties. In addition, DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang, the previous magistrate of Taipei County has a direct interest in the outcome because it could well decide his survival as party chairman and his hopes to become the DPP presidential candidate in 2008. ¶4. (C) Polling from the past several days by the leading pro-KMT newspaper gives Chou a 14 percent lead, while comparable polling by the leading pro-DPP newspaper shows Chou with a 2 percent lead. DPP internal polling from November 15 has Chou ahead by 2.8 percent, while KMT internal polling from the same period has Chou with a 9 percent lead. Some AIT contacts have suggested that splitting the difference between polling associated with the competing parties may give a more accurate assessment of the actual situation. Numerous AIT contacts stress, however, that there are a variety of reasons why polling, though useful for reference, cannot be relied on for accurate prediction of the outcome of a close election. These reasons include voter turnout levels, voters who are undecided, or who refuse to answer or even deliberately mislead poll takers, and the effects of new, often unexpected, campaign developments. Some of our contacts speculate that more DPP voters than normal are temporarily "hidden" in the undecided or refuse-to-answer categories but could turn out and boost the final vote totals for Luo. ¶5. (C) Soochow University Professor Emile Sheng suggested to AIT that Luo is trailing Chou in the polls for two reasons. First, election results over the past decade show that core KMT supporters outnumber DPP supporters in Taipei County. Second, Luo is suffering the effects of relentless KMT attacks on corruption at top levels in the DPP government. During a discussion with AIT in the early stages of the campaign, Taipei County Acting Magistrate Lin Hsi-yao said that the KMT enjoys a natural 6 percent advantage over the DPP in Taipei County, so Luo was starting with a handicap and would have to make up the difference through his campaigning. Lin suggested that Luo would appeal to young voters and Hakka voters (Luo is Hakka) and that increased support from those groups would be key to Luo's quest for victory. ¶6. (C) Luo began his campaign by stressing reform. After falling increasingly behind in the polls because of KMT attacks against DPP government leaders over corruption issues, Luo changed the focus of his campaign to attacking Chou Hsi-wei for alleged financial misdealings. Luo's attacks, which damaged Chou temporarily but not fatally (Chou simply ducked the issue and tearfully criticized DPP smear tactics),were a double-edged sword, sullying Luo's reform image and alienating some of the swing voters he had originally hoped to capture. Most important, the new strategy was only partially effective and did not give Luo the lead. Over the past few days, Luo has shifted gears again, stirring up the enthusiasm of base supporters through emotionally charged activities commemorating late DPP heroes. Most recently, some of Luo's supporters were charged with making small payments to participants in a campaign rally, which, though minor, does not help Luo's effort to present a clean personal image. ¶7. (C) Party leaders from all sides are focusing on Taipei County in the final days of campaigning. Before switching to the KMT to run for Taipei County magistrate, Chou Hsi-wei was a People First Party (PFP) legislator. On November 30, PFP Chairman James Soong, despite hard feelings toward the KMT leadership, joined Chou on the platform to endorse Chou's campaign. KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou has canceled some campaign plans in other districts in order to devote much of the last two days prior to the election to Chou's campaign. DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang has become a near permanent fixture in Luo's campaign, and President Chen will be in Taipei County both Thursday and Friday. Health concerns and a commitment to support the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) candidate for mayor in Keelung, however, may prevent former President Lee Teng-hui from appearing on Luo's behalf. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Traditionally, the KMT has a harder time than the DPP in turning out the vote, and the outcome of the Taipei County and some other close elections on December 3 may depend on which party does the better job in turning out the vote. The DPP hopes the overall turnout rate in Taipei County will be low because the swing vote, which is most affected by the turnout rate, favors the KMT. It is not yet clear, however, whether last-minute efforts by Luo and DPP leaders can succeed in mobilizing the party base in Taipei County to vote in large enough numbers to score a come-from-behind victory on Saturday. Whichever party wins this election will almost certainly proclaim itself the overall winner on December 3. Paal