Pingtung County Magistrate Election Countdown

UNCLAS TAIPEI 004763

SIPDIS

DEPT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON
DEPT FOR EAP/TC, INR/EAP

FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: Pingtung County Magistrate Election Countdown

REF: Taipei 4355

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY.


1. (SBU) Both sides express optimism about the December
3 election based on conflicting polls carried out by
party operatives in Pingtung County's green and blue
camps. While KMT officials would not reveal specific
numbers, they told AIT/K KMT candidate Wang Chin-shih has
maintained a comfortable lead in their polls throughout
the close race. A DPP campaign assistant in charge of
polling and promotional activities told AIT/K DPP
candidate Tsao Chi-hung leads in internal polls by 5
percent. Based on these results the DPP predicts Tsao
will win the election by ten thousand votes (there are
160,000 eligible voters in Pingtung County).


2. (SBU) Although independent candidate Soong Li-hua's
support continues to hover at 10 percent despite ongoing
vote-buying charges and indictments (see reftel),both
KMT and DPP officials expect that the "dump and protect
effect" (chi-pao) will take place. They anticipate that
the vast majority of votes for Soong Li-hua will
disappear on the morning of December 3, going instead in
an even-split between DPP and KMT.


3. (SBU) The KMT remains extremely cautious about
potential DPP campaign tricks and is trying to put out
any fires as they arise. Both parties have their
heavyweights campaigning locally by walking or parading
in the street this week. President Chen was in Pingtung
on the afternoon of the November 29, when AIT/K visited
the city. Ma Ying-jeou, Wu Dun-yi, and Wang Jyn-ping
have also visited the county for the KMT in the last two
weeks.


4. (SBU) The KMT stated they hoped to keep the last week
of the campaign calm and cool. They don't want to
emphasize any party issues or arouse inter-party strife.
Their hope is to not engender any sense of crisis that
will rile green voters and thus push them to the polls.
On the other hand, the DPP said its last few days is
concentrated on whipping up three kinds of voters who may
stay away from the polls: first - voters who are
confident that the DPP candidate will win and may not
vote; second - voters who support the DPP but are so
disappointed by DPP corruption scandals they are not
motivated to vote; and, third - soft-hearted voters who
are easily sympathetic to a weak candidate and may throw
their votes to a tearful Soong Li-hua. Both parties
remain convinced voter turnout will decide this election.


5. (SBU) Comment: This race remains too close to call.
Although internal party polls are usually good indicators
of the real direction of the race, neither side could
present conclusive evidence or display even enough
bravado about their polls to indicate to AIT/K that they
have a firm lead. End comment.

THIELE

PAAL