CHIAYI MAYORAL RACE HEATS UP IN LAST WEEK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004746

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TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: CHIAYI MAYORAL RACE HEATS UP IN LAST WEEK

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1. (SBU) Summary: In a mayoral race touted by the press
and southern political observers as one of the most
important for the DPP during the 3 in 1 elections, nervous
campaigners on both sides in Chiayi City have turned to
negative campaigning and vote buying to lure the 30 percent
of critical undecided voters. President Chen leads the mud-
slinging for 3 days in the pan-green camp in an attempt to
spur a crisis mentality among the depressed deep-green
voters. Despite signs that the KMT candidate has a
substantial lead, the KMT cannot rest easy in this deep
Green heartland. End summary.


2. (SBU) For DPP operatives in Chiayi City the mayoral
election finally have moved into their comfort zone -- the
high tension, big stakes, last few days of campaigning in
what appears to many outsiders to be an unwinnable race for
the DPP. Although they previously worried that local
appearances by President Chen could poison their candidate's
chances, the DPP has now fallen back on what they know best:
creating a crisis to which DPP voters can respond. Their
new campaign slogan, repeated as a daily mantra, is that a
win for the KMT in Chiayi City will return Taiwan to the
hands of mainland China. The purpose of this negative
image, DPP campaigners told AIT/K, is to motivate the
depressed "deep green" voters, who are unlikely to vote if
they don't feel the island is under mortal threat. They
estimate if they can spur even five percent out of their
lethargy and into voting booths on December 3, then the
election is theirs. With an election turnout at 65 percent,
they speculate, the DPP is likely to win. If the turnout is
more than 70 percent, they say they can claim a sure
victory.


3. (SBU) Circumspect KMT officials in Chiayi City revealed
their own polls that show KMT candidate Huang Min-hui 15
percent ahead of DPP candidate incumbent mayor Chen Li-zhen.
The KMT claims the DPP is overly optimistic if they believe
their polls showing Mayor Chen just three points behind
Huang. DPP officials told AIT/K that polls are meaningless
because the DPP is always behind in polls, but they always
win elections. It is exactly this history of DPP success
that keeps KMT officials nervous. Despite all the polls and
word of mouth that place Huang in the lead, both KMT and DPP
officials believe that a DPP win still is possible.


4. (SBU) DPP officials who previously hoped the scandal-
ridden President Chen would skip Chiayi City are now
comfortable with his 3 day presence (November 28, 29 and
December 1) and his message because the tone and timing are
just right to communicate a crisis. Chiayi City political
observers note that incumbent mayor Chen is known widely as
less than a stellar campaigner and desperately needs the
President's help at this point. She does not like negative
campaigning and her less than amiable persona has made it
doubly hard for the DPP to package her against such a
seasoned and likeable campaigner like the KMT's Huang.
President Chen's willingness to raise his voice, denounce
the KMT for its past and present, and threaten the voters
with the potential loss of the island is just what Chiayi
City deep-green voters need, say DPP campaigners, to get the
deep-green base out to vote. Interestingly, these deep-
green voters are not staying home just because they are
disillusioned by recent DPP scandals. More importantly, one
of the beleaguered deep-green independence leaders told
AIT/K, they have been "heart-stricken" because President
Chen's administration has not moved forward on promises of
Taiwan independence. They perceive there is no one left to
vote for who will move their agenda any closer to reality.


5. (SBU) Although KMT campaigners in Chiayi City couldn't
say if Chairman Ma
Ying-jeou will be down to stand beside candidate Huang in
the last days leading up to the election, they did stress
that being the "opposition party" in Chiayi City offers them
some extra votes. While most people see Chiayi City as the
cradle of Taiwan's democracy, they noted, it's really a
"cradle of opposition," in which challenging authority is a
local attitude. Even without a visit by Chairman Ma, they
are hoping to turn that sentiment to their advantage by
pounding on the DPP's failure to deliver as a ruling party.
However, their candidate, who is running on her own merit
rather than as a KMT party faithful, is leaving the negative
campaign messages to her campaign officials. Instead she is
using her campaign hours to work her exceptionally strong
grassroots base of voters who not only devotedly enjoy her
time with them, but trust her effectiveness since she has
been delivering excellent services to constituents as a
legislative yuan member.


6. (SBU) AIT/K heard accusations of massive vote-buying
from both sides in this mayoral race. The only thing they
two sides had in common was the price of a vote, which is
going at NT 3,000 for a "party slate" vote in which the
seller agrees to vote for party candidates in the mayoral
and city council elections. One TSU-aligned political
observer told AIT/K a voter would have to hide this week to
avoid being approached by a "good friend" to secure his/her
vote. Although vote buyers, claimed this interlocutor,
expect delivery on only 30 percent of purchases, that 30
percent is critical in an election this close. Besides, he
said, "it comforts the candidates" to know that, if nothing
else,
there is a 30 percent cushion out there to shore them up.


7. (SBU) Comment: There is no question that the Chiayi
City's DPP has come back to life in the last few days before
the election. While there is no guarantee the negative
message they are pushing will mobilize traumatized deep-
green voters, DPP campaigners express confidence they still
can beat the KMT here in the heartland of the party. The
planned three day visit of the President indicates just how
nervous the DPP is about the significant damage a KMT win in
Chiayi City could visit on its future prospects in Southern
Taiwan. End comment.

THIELE

PAAL