CHEN USING BUSH SPEECH TO PROMOTE REFORM AGENDA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000473

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV TW
SUBJECT: CHEN USING BUSH SPEECH TO PROMOTE REFORM AGENDA


Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal; Reasons: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: President Chen Shui-bian is actively touting
President Bush's inaugural call to spread freedom and
democracy as a validation of his efforts to push forward with
constitutional reform. During a January 31 speech in Guam,
President Chen characterized Taiwan as a key ally in
President Bush's initiative to expand the community of
democracies. Local analysts say that Chen is likely to
exploit the USG focus on democratization to justify policies
such as referenda and constitutional revision that are
anathema to Beijing. Taiwan observers tell AIT that
President Bush's inaugural speech played well with the Taiwan
pubic, leading to expectations that relations with Washington
would improve in a second term. Some Chen administration
officials tell AIT privately, however, that Chen's
mismanagement of U.S.-Taiwan relations over the past two
years may negate any bounce Taiwan might have gained from a
new USG focus on democracy building. End summary.

Chen Pushing His Own Agenda
--------------


2. (C) President Chen Shui-bian is touting President Bush's
inauguration speech references to freedom and democracy to
validate his constitutional reform agenda. During a January
31 speech to local Taiwan community leaders in Guam and other
recent public events, Chen has described his plan for
constitutional reform as paralleling President Bush's
inaugural call to expand freedom and democracy. In Guam,
Chen said that President Bush's initiative can "form the
basis of future cooperation between Taiwan and the U.S." and
touting an emerging "alliance of values" between Taipei and
Washington. In a congratulatory letter to President Bush on
his re-election, Chen also made a clear reference to his plan
for constitution reform when he said he was "encouraged that
the U.S. would seek and support the growth of democratic
movements and institutions" in every nation.

A Blank Check?
--------------


3. (C) Local political observers have warned that President
Bush's speech may be utilized by Chen and his Pan-Green
supporters for "whatever they want." National Taiwan
University Professor Chiang Ming-ching told AIT that
President Bush's speech gave the Chen administration "a
blank-check." Chiang said that the Pan-Green camp sees
liberty and freedom as something that all Taiwanese must
enjoy, particularly the right of self-determination. Chiang
believes that in Chen's mind, President Bush's speech
validates Chen's grass roots campaign to promote such
initiatives as changing the names of state institutions from
"China" to "Taiwan" and major constitutional reform. Chiang
also maintained that, in Chen's mind, "freedom" means the
freedom to do whatever the people want, regardless of the
consequences. Institute of National Policy Research (INPR)
Executive Director Lo Chih-cheng separately offered a similar
assessment, predicting that Chen would likely seize the
initiative to promote his own image of freedom in Taiwan.


4. (C) Some analysts assessed that President Bush's focus on
democracy and freedom would reassure the Taiwan public.
Academia Sinica polling expert Hsu Yung-ming told AIT that
liberty and democracy are very popular ideas in Taiwan. He
said that many people are hopeful that President Bush's
speech signals that Washington will stand closer to Taiwan
than the PRC. Moreover, Hsu said that many Taiwanese expect
that President Bush will push the PRC on democracy. Hsu
believes that the Taiwanese think President Bush is a man of
his word and will follow his speech with real actions. The
INPR's Lo told AIT that President Bush was wise to emphasize
freedom over democracy because every country can say they are
a democracy, but it is more difficult to claim every country
is free. For this reason, Lo argued that the PRC may feel a
little uneasy and threatened after the speech. Lo added that
the speech was important for Taiwan because it reminds people
that they share the same values as the U.S.

Improved Taiwan-U.S. Relations?
--------------


5. (C) Many Taiwanese are hopeful that President's Bush
speech signaled a closer relationship with Washington. Lin
Cheng-yi, the Director of European and American Studies at
Academia Sinica and a former National Security Council (NSC)
Senior Advisor told AIT that he was optimistic over prospects
for closer Taipei-Washington ties after hearing President
Bush's speech. Although Lin noted that President Bush did
not mention China when he singled out countries that lacked
freedom, Lin believes that the Bush Administration's second
term goals track closely with Taiwan's efforts to reform the
constitution. He opined that these factors suggest that
there is hope that Taiwan-U.S. relations will be closer as a
result of Washington's ideals-based initiative. Lin added
that many Taiwanese think that President Bush will support
Taiwan because Taipei represents the values President Bush
highlighted as major goals for his second term.

The Cynical View
--------------


6. (C) While Pan-Green analysts were generally heartened by
President Bush's inaugural speech, opposition observers
expressed skepticism. Professor Emile Sheng from Soochow
University told AIT that the speech was not about Taiwan and
the PRC at all. He said the cross-Srait situation is a
unique issue and President Bush's speech should not be taken
literally. Sheng said that most people in Taiwan were not
aroused by the speech because they know that the speech was
on places like Iraq and North Korea, not China. Academia
Sinica's Hsu noted that President Bush did not mention
Beijing in his speech, suggesting that Washington sees a need
for the PRC for help with North Korea and anti-terrorism
initiatives. He said that, President Bush's inaugural
address notwithstanding, Taiwan is worried President Bush
will sacrifice Taiwanese interests at the hands of Beijing.

Comment: Chen Taking the Initiative
--------------


7. (C) While President Bush's speech did not generate an
unusually large amount of publicity in Taiwan, President Chen
and his supporters have decided to get as much as they can
out of it. Chen appears particularly eager to use President
Bush's speech to justify his more controversial initiatives,
including constitutional reforms. Chen administration
foreign policy officials tell AIT privately that they realize
that frictions in U.S.-Taiwan relationship are not going to
be overcome simply because of shared interest in promoting
abstract issues like freedom and democracy. However, in his
dealings with the Taiwan public, media, and U.S. supporters,
Chen is likely to invoke these themes to justify policies
that may impact on more concrete U.S. policy issues in the
region.
PAAL