PRE-ELECTION SCENE SETTER: TAICHUNG CITY AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004599

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2015
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SCENE SETTER: TAICHUNG CITY AND
TAICHUNG COUNTY, KMT AHEAD BUT STILL CAUTIOUS


Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D)


1. (U) Summary: Kuomintang (KMT) candidates for Taichung
City Mayor and Taichung County Magistrate, both incumbents,
are comfortably ahead of their challengers according to
published public opinion polls. In Taichung City, the
campaign atmosphere is muted with little visible election
competition due to the large lead enjoyed by popular Mayor
Jason Hu. In Taichung County, however, the DPP is energized
and hopeful that its anti-gambling platform will be able to
unseat incumbent KMT Magistrate Huang Chung-sheng. Due to
the large number of undecided voters, the unreliability of
public opinion polls, and the possibility of "last minute
surprises," both parties are cautious about predicting a
winner in Taichung County. End Summary.

Taichung City: KMT Cautiously Confident
--------------


2. (C) KMT Taichung City Chairman Mu Kui-hsin told AIT that
55 percent of Taichung City voters support the Pan-Blue camp
and 45 percent support the Pan-Green camp. More
specifically, Mu estimated that 35 percent of voters are
strongly committed to the Blue coalition and 30 percent to
the Green, while 30 percent are undecided and will vote
according to the personal qualities of the candidates.
Although incumbent Mayor Jason Hu is leading by a wide margin
in all public opinion polls, Mu continued, Taiwan's polls are
historically unreliable because voters are reluctant to
reveal their true candidate preferences and because sample
sizes are too small to be truly reliable. Noting that KMT
Chairman Ma Ying-jeou's two earlier visits had a positive
impact on Mayor Hu's re-election campaign, Mu told AIT that
Ma plans to return at least two more times before election
day, December 3.


3. (C) Chairman Mu told AIT that he expects the gap between
Mayor Hu and DPP candidate Lin Chia-lung to narrow as
election day nears and that he expects the final vote to be
much closer. The People's First Party (PFP) refused to
cooperate on a common Pan-Blue candidate, Mu explained, in
hopes of leveraging KMT support for PFP candidates competing
in other districts. PFP candidate Shen Chih-hui is stuck in
the race now because, Mu surmised, were she to drop out at
this late date her supporters would think she had made a
"secret deal" with the KMT. Mu insisted that, contrary to
rumors, Mayor Hu is in good health (Note: Hu suffered a
relatively minor stroke three years ago; he went on a
television talk show last night, November 15, to demonstrate
to voters how robust his health is now. End note.) While
continuing to stress Hu's achievements as Mayor
(construction of highways and stadiums),Chairman Mu noted
cryptically that the party is also planning a few "special
activities" during the final week of the campaign.


4. (C) DPP Taichung City Chairman Chen Ta-chun told AIT that
according to DPP internal polls, DPP candidate Lin
Chia-lung's voter support has risen to 22 percent while Mayor
Hu's support has slipped to 40 percent. Chen acknowleged
that DPP suport in Taichung is declining, but insisted the
party still has a chance to win since outside polls always
underestimate DPP support. Chen told AIT that the DPP will
continue to focus on Hu's "problems" in hopes of gaining
votes. The DPP has attacked Mayor Hu for inflating his
number of years in civil service, largely by including his
years working for the then-ruling KMT, after he retired from
the central government to run for Taichung Mayor in 2001;
there are also sleaze rumors being circulated by unnamed
sources that Mayor Hu is a homosexual. In an odd note,
Chairman Chen, acknowledging his own aspirations to run for
Taichung Mayor, criticized DPP candidate Lin Chia-Lung as an
"outsider".


5. (C) Tunghai University (Taichung) Political Scientist
Wang Yeh-li separately assessed to AIT that DPP accusations
against Mayor Hu will have minimal effect on the Taichung
City race. Professor Wang explained that voters in Taichung
City come from all parts of Taiwan and have limited party
identification, which makes election predictions especially
difficult. Professor Wang told AIT that DPP candidate Lin
Chia-lung's greatest liability is his lack of personal ties
to Taichung City, because many Taichung voters are
uncomfortable with the DPP nominating an outsider. The real
reason the DPP nominated non-residents to run in Taichung
City and County races, as well as in Taipei County, Wang
explained, was to cultivate a younger generation of leaders
for the future.

Taichung County: KMT Still Cautious, DPP Energized
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Lin Chao-tang, a Section Chief in the KMT party
headquarters in Fengyuan, told AIT that although KMT
incumbent Magistrate Huang Chung-sheng continues to lead in
public opinion polls, poll samples were too small -- around
1,000 out of over 1 million voters -- to be reliable. With
KMT membership only about 40,000 county-wide, Lin said, most
voters will end up voting for the candidates they know best,
regardless of party affiliation. While 60 percent of
Taichung County voters traditionally vote KMT and Magistrate
Huang brings a strong record as magistrate to the race, the
KMT remains cautious and uncertain. Although local factions
no longer exert as much influence in elections as they did in
the past, they are still influential in rural areas, which
will befit KMT candidate Huang with his superior relations
with the factions. Lin predicted that the voter turnout
would increase from 60 percent in earlier elections to 70
percent, for which he credited the new "three-in-one"
election format.


7. (C) DPP Taichung County Director Chang Wen-huai told AIT
that the DPP out-polled the KMT in the 2004 presidential
election despite the fact that the KMT support base
outnumbers the DPP 55-45 percent. Explaining that internal
DPP polls show rising support for DPP magistrate candidate
Chiu Tai-san, Chang insisted the election is much closer than
commonly believed and will probably be decided by
30,000-50,000 votes. Candidate Chiu's campaign manager Li
Chin-hsiang separately told AIT that the influence of local
factions is on the decline, especially among younger voters,
while the percentage of undecided voters is increasing.
Since the latter are more independent in their voting, the
DPP will campaign for their support by emphasizing Chiu's
qualifications. It will press the DPP's anti-gambling
platform in order to capitalize on DPP candidate Chiu
Tai-san's accusations that KMT incumbent Magistrate Huang
illegally approved licenses for video arcades. (Note: KMT
Taichung County Magistrate Huang has issued a six-point
statement refuting these allegations. End note) Explaining
that the DPP considers Taichung County to be a battleground
race and a potential win, Wang and Li told AIT they are
confident Chiu's popularity will continue rising and will
catch his opponent by election day.
Paal