PRE-ELECTION SCENE SETTER: HSINCHU CITY AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004553

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/10/2015
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SCENE SETTER: HSINCHU CITY AND
HSINCHU COUNTY, KMT STRONGHOLDS


Classified By: AIT Director Douglas H. Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D)


1. (U) Summary: The Kuomintang (KMT) candidates for Hsinchu
City Mayor and Hsinchu County Magistrate, both of whom are
incumbents, lead their Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
challengers by wide margins. The election atmosphere in
Hsinchu City is not very competitive or intense, and the KMT
should have an easy victory. The KMT is well organized in
heavily Hakka and traditionally pro-Blue Hsinchu County,
where it is playing up the theme of DPP corruption and
expects a relatively easy victory. End Summary.

Hsinchu City: KMT Confident of Retaining Power
-------------- -


2. (C) KMT Hsinchu City Chairman Chang Yi-hua told AIT that
the population mix in Hsinchu City is approximately 60
percent Taiwanese, 20 percent Hakka and 20 percent Mainlander
and that Pan-Blue supporters outnumber Pan-Green supporters
by approximately three to two, giving the KMT a built-in
advantage. Chang attributed Mayor Lin's high poll ratings to
several factors: Hsinchu's strong economy, his achievements,
especially road and park construction; his keeping in touch
with people by attending local weddings and funerals; and
welfare policies that benefit retirees and families who have
children. Noting that KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou inaugurated
Lin's campaign headquarters on October 29, Chang said that
they have suggested to Ma that he will not need to do any
more campaigning in Hsinchu City because Mayor Lin enjoys a
stable lead. Chang predicted that voter turnout will be
about 65 percent.


3. (C) Chairman Chang told AIT that the DPP chose not to run
its strongest candidate, Hsinchu City DPP Chairman Cheng
Hung-hui, because a likely election loss would prevent Cheng
from running for office for the next four years, according to
DPP regulations. According to a mid-October public opinion
poll from the generally respected but Blue-leaning ERA
organization, Mayor Lin has a 35 percentage point lead over
Cheng Kuei-yuan. Despite Lin's lead and popularity, Chang,
however, was cautious in predicting who would win the
election because of the possibility of last-minute DPP
"tricks".


4. (C) DPP Hsinchu City Chairman Cheng Hung-hui told AIT that
the 35-point polling gap probably exaggerates the actual
margin between the two candidates and added that the DPP
often increases its support as the election draws near. As a
City Council Member representing just one district in the
city, DPP candidate Cheng Kuei-yuan suffers from a lack of
name recognition, Cheng Hung-hui noted. The strongest
candidates for mayor or magistrate are usually legislators or
at least council speakers who enjoy wide recognition. Cheng
added that people support candidates because they know them,
not because of their party affiliation. Cheng told AIT that
the DPP plans to attack Mayor Lin for waste and running a
deficit and to stress the DPP's own programs, which include
putting the railway underground and building a second
industrial science park.

Hsinchu County: Even More KMT Confidence
--------------


5. (C) KMT Hsinchu County Chairman Lee Cheng-wen noted that
Hsinchu County has the highest proportion of traditionally
pro-Blue Hakka residents in Taiwan, 81 percent, adding that
the KMT has a strong organizational base in the country.
According to Lee, Hsinchu County's Hakkas prefer stability
and do not favor Taiwan independence or the DPP. Lee
attributed Magistrate Cheng's popularity to Hsinchu County's
strong economy, as well as his congenial personality,
realism, welfare policy of pension subsidies for the elderly
and free school lunches for children.


6. (C) Lee remarked that Ma Ying-jeou's clean image has
benefitted the KMT and predicted this will influence the
swing vote. In light of recent DPP scandals, Lee said, the
KMT's strategy will be to emphasize DPP corruption in its
campaign message. He criticized DPP candidate Lin Kuang-hua,
who was magistrate from 1997-2001, as arrogant, unrealistic,
and for putting the county in debt. Lee told AIT that Cheng
has a better record regarding the cost-effectiveness of major
projects.


7. (C) Lin Yu-ting, son of Hsinchu County DPP candidate Lin,
told AIT that in Hsinchu County 40 percent of voters support
the KMT, 25 percent the DPP and 35 percent of voters are
uncommitted. Lin acknowledged that the DPP's scandals have
complicated his father's campaign and said his father will
emphasize his personal characteristics rather than his party
affiliation. Lin suggested that incumbent Magistrate Cheng
has corruption problems, which will come to light during the
campaign. He also claimed that local reporters are being
bribed, which explains why there are no negative stories
about incumbent Magistrate Cheng. Lin lamented the power of
personality and how unfair it is that President Chen's own
problems have tainted the entire DPP while the entire KMT is
now suddenly "clean" because of Ma Ying-Jeou's positive image.


8. (C) Lin stated that a false corruption allegation and more
generous welfare promises by the KMT derailed his father's
campaign during the last election. This year, Lin's father
is upping the ante, promising voters a still higher pension
for the elderly and two free meals (breakfast in addition to
lunch) for school children.



Paal