TAIWAN'S RULING DPP: DIFFICULT TIMES AFTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004552 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/W E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/10/2015 TAGS: PGOV TW SUBJECT: TAIWAN'S RULING DPP: DIFFICULT TIMES AFTER ELECTION? REF: A. TAIPEI 4439 ¶B. TAIPEI 4353 ¶C. TAIPEI 4158 ¶D. TAIPEI 3793 ¶E. TAIPEI 4189 ¶F. TAIPEI 4482 Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Many local observers expect the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) to make significant gains in the December 3 local elections at the expense of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Several DPP contacts, moreover, have expressed pessimism to AIT about the party's prospects over the next decade. They are concerned that recent changes in the Legislative Yuan (LY) structure will ensure continued KMT control of the LY and that the DPP also stands to lose the presidency to the KMT in 2008 if current trends continue. End Summary. DPP Saddled with Scandals -------------- ¶2. (C) AIT's DPP contacts are visibly discouraged by the snowballing charges of corruption, cronyism, and poor performance swirling around President Chen and his administration. The most damaging allegations have concerned the Kaohsiung Mass Rapid Transit (KMRT) project, the subject of intense controversy since a violent protest by Thai laborers last August raised questions about corrupt labor brokering practices and other issues (Refs A, B, C, D). Chen's initial defensive reaction to criticism of scandals and poor performance was to lash out at the opposition parties and their leaders. In reaction to Chen's failure to address problems directly, DPP Young Turks in early October launched the "New DPP Movement," a call for party reform aimed at restoring the party's clean-government orientation (Ref E). Many DPP reformers were disappointed when Chen rejected the New DPP Movement, charging it would split rather than reform the party. In mid-October, Chen launched an attack on People First Party (PFP) leader James Soong over cross-Strait issues, apparently in a failed effort to deflect public attention from the corruption issue. ¶3. (C) The KMRT scandal tarnished Chen directly when a top advisor and confidant, Chen Che-nan, was implicated and arrested after the media published a sensational photograph of the advisor together with the KMRT Vice Chairman gambling at a casino in South Korea. The Chen administration compounded its problems by launching an investigation of ;TVBS, the television station that had unveiled this and other scandals (Ref F). Although Chen subsequently apologized publicly for the scandals, embraced the DPP reform movement, and announced he would not close TVBS, he has continued to counterattack his critics as well as to attack the opposition's cross-Strait policies. The KMRT corruption story is hitting the press at an awkward time for Chen as he and other DPP leaders try to generate support for the party's candidates in the December 3 local elections. As long as the almost daily corruption charges and revelations continue, and there are promises of new dirt to come, Chen will be on the defensive on what has traditionally been one of his strongest campaign themes: clean government. Cross-Strait Challenges -------------- ¶4. (C) Despite his criticism of the opposition on cross-Strait policy, Chen may also be on the defensive on this issue as well. KMT officials trace the rise in KMT popularity, compared to the DPP, to the party's cross-Strait initiative launched by then-Chairman Lien Chan when he visited China last May. A KMT official told AIT that the party's polling indicates the KMT effort to improve cross-Strait relations enjoys greater popular support than the confrontational approach of the DPP. If this trend holds, Chen's campaign efforts to mobilize his base by stirring up antagonism to the opposition's cross-Strait policy may have less resonance than in previous years. December 3 Elections -------------- ¶5. (C) Heading into the December 3 local elections, Chen and the DPP are in a significantly weakened position compared to previous elections and they may pay a heavy price at the polls. Even within the DPP, it is now common to criticize Chen and his administration for policy mistakes, lack of consistency, paucity of achievements, and exclusive reliance on a small coterie of politically trustworthy advisors. Since May, public support for the KMT has exceeded public support for the DPP, a reversal of the pattern over the past several years. According to a regular monthly poll by the respected but Blue-leaning ERA polling center, the gap between the two parties has remained consistently about ten percent in each of the monthly polls since May. According to an October 20 ERA poll, 50 percent of the public trusts KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou, while just 34 percent trusts President Chen. While several important local elections on December 3, including Taipei County magistrate, remain up in the air, many observers here expect the KMT to gain significant ground at the expense of the DPP. Beyond December 3 -------------- ¶6. (C) Beyond the December 3 local elections, AIT's DPP contacts are also concerned about the long-term prospects for the ruling party. A poor showing on December 3 could harm the unity and morale of the DPP as it faces an important series of elections over the next three years. Constitutional reforms passed in June, moreover, that will halve the size of the 225-member LY and create a one-member-per-district legislative system to replace the current multiple member district system, could complicate DPP election prospects in the 2007 legislative elections. In the view of AIT's DPP contacts, the new system will probably ensure a pan-Blue majority in the LY in 2007, and probably for years to come, in part because the new system will give the opposition pan-Blue a lock on several tiny districts, including Kinmen, Matsu, and Penghu. ¶7. (C) DPP prospects for the 2008 presidential election also appear bleak at the moment, though much can change between now and 2008. Even as the DPP weathers the current corruption storm, the Chen administration will continue to suffer from a public perception of much talk and little achievement. Even DPP officials volunteer that responsibility for this problem runs deeper than opposition obstructionism in the LY -- although that is part of the problem -- because not all reforms require new legislation. Taipei Mayor and KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou, the presumed KMT presidential candidate and a model of integrity, is riding high in current political popularity polls. If the DPP loses both the LY elections in 2007 and the presidential election in 2008, the party will be consigned to playing an opposition role for some time. ¶8. (C) The one bright sign for the DPP may be its ability to reform itself and its generally higher clean government standards than the KMT. Although Ma Ying-jeou has a reputation for integrity, the KMT does not. A PFP legislator recently told AIT that KMT legislators are far more likely to be corrupt than DPP legislators and that the DPP as a party has the ability to reform itself. So, despite its current difficulties, the DPP may well be able to make a comeback. Paal