PRE-ELECTION SCENE SETTER: KEELUNG CITY, A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004470

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2015
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SCENE SETTER: KEELUNG CITY, A
PAN-BLUE BATTLEGROUND


Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason(s):
1.4 (B/D)


1. (U) Summary: The race for Keelung City Mayor is largely
an internecine Pan-Blue fight between Kuomintang (KMT)
incumbent Mayor Hsu Tsai-li and People First Party (PFP)
legislator Liu Wen-hsiung. While Democratic Progressive
Party (DPP) candidate Wang Tuo withdrew from the race and
endorsed Pan-Green coalition partner Taiwan Solidarity
Union's (TSU) Chen Chien-ming, Chen continues to lag far
behind in the polls. Whereas the campaign visits of
charismatic KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou are having a palpable
impact on the Keelung mayoral campaign, a visit by the
scandal-embroiled President Chen appears unlikely to help,
and could even hurt, the Pan-Green candidate, whose campaign
is in disarray. End Summary.

PFP: Guarded Optimism
--------------


2. (C) The dynamic and relatively young (late forties) PFP
legislator Liu Wen-hsiung is holding his own in public
opinion polls against incumbent KMT Mayor Hsu Tsai-li. PFP
Keelung Chairman Yu Cheng-Chen insisted to AIT that Liu's
chances of winning are better than 60 percent. PFP campaign
strategy, he said, is to target the large body of undecided
voters, ranging from 25 to 48 percent, according to various
polls. Acknowledging that Pan-Blue competitors PFP and KMT
are soliciting from the same voter base, Yu explained that
PFP is concentrating on attracting young and middle-aged
voters, since voters over sixty will likely vote KMT. PFP is
also highlighting Mayor Hsu's health problems (diabetes) and
contrasting this to the relative youth and vitality of Liu
Wen-hsiung. Arguing that voters are moving away from strict
party affiliation and looking more at a candidate's image, Yu
said Liu will continue to highlight his personal
characteristics.


3. (C) A few days earlier, PFP Culture Deputy Director Liao
Wan-cheng in Taipei had told AIT that the popular,
charismatic KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou would be the key to the
Keelung mayoral election. PFP strategy, Liao explained,
would be to persuade Ma, for the sake of Pan-Blue unity, to
stay away from Keelung and refrain from campaigning for Hsu.
Yu, however, told AIT that Ma has visited Keelung several
times already and has hurt the PFP. Later in the meeting,
however, Yu sought to play down Ma's influence on the Keelung
race, and noted that PFP Party Chairman James Soong will
visit Keelung this week to inaugurate Liu's campaign
headquarters and stump for Liu. (Comment: Given Soong's
highly controversial image, it will be interesting to see if
such a visit will help or hurt Liu. End Comment.)

KMT: Incumbent Confidence
--------------


4. (C) KMT incumbent Keelung Mayor Hsu Tsai-li, a
working-class Taiwanese politician, has held his own against
PFP's Liu. Local KMT Chairman Li Po-yuan showed AIT six
public opinion polls with Hsu in the lead. (Comment: AIT has
found altogether nine public opinion polls on the Keelung
mayoral race, which show the lead see-sawing back and forth
between the two Pan-Blue candidates. End Comment.) Li also
noted Chairman Ma's three visits to Keelung, crediting Ma's
appearances with improving Hsu's position. He predicted that
even voters lukewarm about Hsu will vote for him because of
Ma, and he stressed the importance of KMT victory in Keelung
to help Ma win the presidency in 2008. Not suprisingly given
that strategy, Hsu Tsai-Li's campaign billboards show a
larger Ma standing with his arm around Hsu's shoulder.


5. (C) With Liu and Hsu having nearly identical campaign
platforms promising to improve Keelung's environment, Li
Po-yuan told AIT, KMT strategy is to emphasize Hsu's
"achievements" as Mayor, such as bringing Taiwan's "Golden
Horse" movie awards ceremony to Keelung for the first time
this year and his administration's generous welfare policies
for retirees and others, in addition to bringing in Chairman
Ma to campaign for him. Our DPP and TSU interlocutors argue
that, to the contrary, Hsu has accomplished nothing
significant (such as cleaning up water pollution) during his
tenure and that his generous welfare policies are close to
vote buying. Li predicts the vote in Keelung will be very
close, and could be decided by 10,000-20,000 votes.

Pan-Green Trailing
--------------


6. (C) With the withdrawal of DPP candidate Wang Tuo, TSU
former Secretary General Chen Chien-ming is left as the sole
Pan-Green candidate for mayor. Pan-Green solidarity in
Keelung is only a mirage, Wang Tuo told AIT. Because the TSU
rejected a request by the DPP to withdraw candidates from the
city council election, the DPP refuses to help Chen's
campaign. Local TSU Chairman Wang Wen-yuan candidly
acknowledged to AIT that Chen, an outsider to Keelung, has
"no chance" of winning the election. The TSU, he explained,
has little support in Keelung, and is fragmented and
disorganized. Wang Tuo's withdrawal, moreover, has not
benefited the TSU candidate much. Wang Wen-yuan expressed
the hope that the upcoming visits of former President and TSU
"Spiritual Leader" Lee Teng-hui will attract older voters and
of President Chen Shui-bian will attract young and female
voters. On the other hand, DPP legislator Wang Tuo, who
withdrew from the mayoral race, suggested to AIT that
President Chen's and former President Lee's campaign stops in
Keelung will not benefit, and could even hurt, the Pan-Green
candidate because voters have been put off by the recent DPP
scandals. Noting that the DPP leadership had
"misinterpreted" the "New DPP Movement," Wang also predicted
DPP's island-wide election results will be poor.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Other than Lienchiang County (Matsu Island) Keelung
is PFP's only reasonable chance for winning on December 3.
Keelung, however, is one race in which the much-discussed "Ma
Ying-jeou effect" appears to be at work, and this is an
ingredient that PFP Chairman James Soong cannot hope to
match. The Keelung race is one of the declining PFP's last
hopes for remaining a viable island-wide party.
Keegan