PRE-ELECTION SCENE SETTER: TAIPEI COUNTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004403

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2015
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SCENE SETTER: TAIPEI COUNTY


Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reasons: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: The ruling Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP) and opposition Kuomintang (KMT) both view Taipei County
as the most important contest in the December 3 local
elections and a key indicator of relative party strength
following the KMT's election of Taipei City Mayor Ma
Ying-jeou as its new Chairman and a series of scandals
involving the DPP. Both parties expect a tight race that
will go down to the wire despite opinion polls that show the
KMT's Chou Hsi-wei with a substantial and growing lead over
the DPP's Luo Wen-jia. The KMT's campaign strategy is to
turn the election into a referendum on public dissatisfaction
with the DPP central government's performance, while Luo
Wen-jia will campaign on his personal record and image as a
reformer and try to minimize his personal connections to
President Chen. End Summary.


2. (SBU) The contest for Taipei County Magistrate is widely
viewed here as the most important race in the December 3
local elections. It is also viewed as a key test of strength
between the ruling Demographic Progressive Party (DPP) and
the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) in the run up to the
presidential election in 2008, when the DPP expects to face a
formidable foe: the highly popular Taipei City Mayor and new
KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou. Taipei County is the largest
local jurisdiction in Taiwan, with 3.7 million people, and
its population, mostly migrants from throughout Taiwan,
reflects the demographics of the island as a whole. Although
Blue supporters outnumber Green supporters in Taipei County
by a small margin, the local government has been in DPP hands
since 1989. The DPP is deeply concerned that the charges of
scandals and poor government performance swirling around
President Chen Shui-bian and the central government may cost
them the election in Taipei County,


3. (C) Acting Magistrate Lin Hsi-yao is filling in
temporarily after the popular Su Tseng-chang stepped down as
Taipei County Magistrate when he assumed the post of
Presidential Office Secretary General in May 2004, before
becoming DPP chairman last January. Some AIT contacts
suggest that Su will have to step down as party chairman if
the DPP loses Taipei County and that this will end Su's
prospects to compete for the DPP presidential nomination.
Other contacts suggest, however, that Su will stay on as
party chairman if the margin of defeat in Taipei County is
close. (In any event, Su has not impressed us as a quitter.)


4. (SBU) The DPP has selected Luo Wen-jia, a rising
political star but an outsider to Taipei County politics, to
run for magistrate. Luo, who has long been closely
associated with Chen Shui-bian, stepped down as Chairman of
the Hakka Affairs Commission last March after having been a
legislator from the Northern District of Taipei City. Luo's
opponent is Chou Hsi-wei, who has been a legislator
representing Taipei County's First District since 1998. A
member of the People First Party (PFP) from 2000-2005, Chou
returned to the KMT last April to compete as the KMT nominee
for Taipei County Magistrate. Although recently published
public opinion polls show Chou with a substantial lead of
seven to fifteen percentage points, there is a large number
of undecided voters, and both the KMT and DPP expect a tight
race. While our contacts give a decided edge to Luo over
Chou in campaign skills and personal charisma, the DPP
corruption issue hurts Luo despite his own reputation as a
reformer.


5. (C) Luo Wen-jia told the Acting Director on October 26
that current internal polling by the DPP indicates that Chou
Hsi-wei is running 3-4 percent ahead of him in voting
preference, but that Luo is 3-4 percent more popular with the
public than Chou. Luo attributes this discrepancy to public
dissatisfaction with the DPP central government over
corruption and poor performance. This factor has a
particularly strong effect in Taipei County because of its
proximity to the capital. Luo said that his campaign
strategy is to focus on his popularity and image as a
reformer, his record, and his political message, which
includes a call for reform by all parties, and that he hopes
to have a chance to present his message in one or two
televised debates with Chou. Luo noted that 51 percent of
respondents to a DPP internal poll believe he is a reformer,
exceeding the 37 percent who regard the DPP as a reform
party. Luo believes that the swing voters in Taipei County
support the Green side and his reform efforts and that a high
voter turnout will help the DPP. Swing voters are relatively
apathetic, however, Luo said, so one goal is to mobilize this
group to vote for him. Luo is also counting on winning half
of the Hakka vote, which traditionally goes to the KMT. Luo
said he was not sure whether the October 29 visit to Taipei
County by the embattled President Chen would have a positive
or negative effect on his campaign, and he noted that the
strong rhetoric on cross-Strait issues that Chen used to
mobilize his base did not appeal to swing voters in Taipei
County. (Note: During his October 29 campaign stop,
President Chen apologized to the public for a major scandal
and reversed his previous position by expressing support for
Luo's reform initiative, the New DPP Movement, according to
press reports. End Note.)


6. (C) During a discussion with AIT on October 26, KMT
Taipei County Deputy Chairman Chao Jung-sheng attributed Chou
Hsi-wei's rise in the polls to the DPP corruption image, the
"Ma Ying-jeou effect" (including frequent campaign visits by
Ma),and the efforts of the KMT organization in arranging
Chou's campaign schedule throughout the large and diverse
county. In the end, Chao predicted, the election will be a
showdown between the Green and Blue forces. Current polls
showing Chou with a wide lead do not reflect how close the
race will be, Chao stressed. In Taipei County, base support
for blue and green is about equal, but, according to Chao,
swing voters shade to the blue, because they are opposed to
the DPP's confrontational image and because intellectuals
focus on the DPP poor governance record. High voter turnout
will help the Blue, Chao suggested. Although being a
mainlander is a disadvantage for Chou Hsi-wei, Luo Wen-jia
may not be able to play the "ethnic card" (Taiwanese versus
mainlander). This is because Luo is from the Hakka minority
rather than the majority southern Fukienese, who do not
always get along with the Hakka.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) The Taipei County Magistrate race remains the most
visible contest in this election. It has also become a
dramatic reminder of the waning fortunes of the scandal
plagued DPP and the rise of Ma Ying-jeou's new-look KMT. All
observers acknowledge that Luo is a better candidate
individually than Chou, but an increasing number expect that
the negative image of the DPP and President Chen may lose
this close race for the DPP.
PAAL