TAIWAN'S PEOPLE'S FIRST PARTY: SNAPSHOT OF A PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004381

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2015
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: TAIWAN'S PEOPLE'S FIRST PARTY: SNAPSHOT OF A PARTY
IN DECLINE


Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan
Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: THE WEAKENED AND DEMORALIZED PEOPLE'S FIRST
PARTY (PFP) APPEARS SET TO SLIP FURTHER IN POLITICAL
INFLUENCE IN THE UPCOMING DECEMBER LOCAL ELECTIONS. WITH
JUST ONE LIKELY AND ONE POSSIBLE ELECTION VICTORY, THE PFP
WILL BE FURTHER MARGINALIZED AND ITS FUTURE FURTHER CLOUDED.
CHAIRMAN JAMES SOONG SHOWS NO SIGNS OF MOVING TO STOP THE
PARTY'S SLIDE THROUGH COOPERATION WITH ITS SOMETIME PAN-BLUE
COALITION PARTNER, THE KUOMINTANG PARTY (KMT). ON THE
CONTRARY, SOONG'S RECENT TRIAL BALLOONS HINTING AT HIS
RUNNING IN NEXT YEAR'S TAIPEI MAYORAL RACE ARE SEEN AS A
CHALLENGE TO KMT CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU'S 2008 PRESIDENTIAL
AMBITIONS AND DRIVE THE TWO PARTIES FURTHER APART, TO THE
PFP'S DISADVANTAGE. END SUMMARY.

PFP'S LONG SLIDE
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2. (U) THE PFP HAS DECLINED STEADILY IN PUBLIC SUPPORT, FROM
18 PERCENT AT ITS FOUNDING IN 2000 TO 5 PERCENT IN THE MOST
RECENT SURVEY (COMPARED WITH THE KMT'S REVERSE TREND FROM 15
TO 29 PERCENT IN THE SAME PERIOD). WHEN EFFORTS TO MERGE PFP
AND KMT FAILED, PFP'S VOTE SHARE IN THE DECEMBER 2004
LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS DECLINED TO 14 PERCENT, DOWN FROM 19
PERCENT IN 2001. PFP CHAIRMAN JAMES SOONG'S EFFORTS TO
RESUSCITATE THE PARTY THIS YEAR INCLUDING HIS SHORT-LIVED
ALLIANCE WITH PRESIDENT CHEN SHUI-BIAN IN FEBRUARY AND HIS
MAY VISIT TO MAINLAND CHINA, ALSO FAILED TO HALT THE PARTY'S
SLIDE. IN MAY, THE PFP FINISHED LAST IN THE NATIONAL
ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS WITH JUST 6 PERCENT OF THE VOTE. THE
GROWING DEMORALIZATION AMONG THE PFP MEMBERSHIP WAS REFLECTED
IN THREE HIGHLY PUBLICIZED DESERTIONS TO THE KMT, INCLUDING
THAT OF POPULAR PFP LEGISLATOR CHOU HSI-WEI, WHO REJOINED THE
KMT AND RECEIVED THE KMT NOMINATION IN THE ALL-IMPORTANT
DECEMBER TAIPEI COUNTY MAGISTRATE ELECTION.

DECEMBER ELECTIONS: ALL HOPES ON KEELUNG
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3. (C) PFP DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC AND CULTURAL AFFAIRS
LIAO WEN-CHANG TOLD AIT THAT THE PAN-BLUE CAMP WILL BE THE
BIG WINNER IN THE DECEMBER 3 YEAR-END ELECTIONS. HE WAS,
HOWEVER, PESSIMISTIC OVER HIS OWN PFP'S ELECTION PROSPECTS.
IN AUGUST, LIAO HAD TOLD AIT THAT IF THE KMT REFUSED TO YIELD
FIVE OR SIX KEY ELECTIONS TO PFP CANDIDATES, THE PFP WOULD BE
FORCED TO FIGHT FOR ITS VERY SURVIVAL. THE TWO PARTIES, IN
FACT, WERE UNABLE TO AGREE ON CANDIDATES IN ANY OF THE KEY
RACES, INCLUDING KEELUNG AND TAICHUNG CITIES AND HUALIEN AND
MIAOLI COUNTIES. LIAO TOLD AIT THAT OF THE FOUR DISTRICTS
WHERE PFP CANDIDATES ARE RUNNING, THE PFP WILL LIKELY WIN
ONLY LIENCHIANG COUNTY (MATSU ISLAND),HAS A REASONABLE
CHANCE OF WINNING KEELUNG CITY, AND HAS NO CHANCE OF WINNING
IN EITHER TAICHUNG CITY OR HUALIEN COUNTY.(NOTE: CURRENTY,
THE PFP ONLY CONTROLS MATSU. END NOTE.)


4. (C) LIAO BECAME UPBEAT AND HOPEFUL ONLY WHEN TALK TURNED
TO THE KEELUNG CITY MAYOR'S RACE, WHERE PFP LEGISLATOR LIU
WEN-HSIUNG HAS A RAZOR-THIN THREE-POINT LEAD OVER INCUMBENT
KMT MAYOR HSU TSAI-LI, ACCORDING TO SOME POLLS. THE KEELUNG
RACE, LIAO TOLD AIT, IS CRITICAL TO THE PFP SINCE IT IS THE
PARTY'S ONLY CHANCE FOR A BIG WIN BY UNSEATING THE KMT
INCUMBENT CANDIDATE HSU. IF THE PFP LOSES KEELUNG CITY, LIAO
NOTED, "ALL IS LOST". HE EXPLAINED THAT THE PFP'S ONLY
ELECTION STRATEGY FOR KEELUNG IS TO TRY TO PERSUADE TAIPEI
MAYOR MA YING-JEOU NOT TO VISIT KEELUNG AND CAMPAIGN FOR KMT
CANDIDATE HSU, OR AT LEAST TO MINIMIZE HIS VISITS TO KEELUNG
CITY. THIS COULD ONLY HAPPEN THROUGH VERY QUIET DIPLOMACY,
LIAO NOTED, AND KMT CANDIDATE HSU MUST NEVER LEARN OF SUCH A
DEAL. (COMMENT: THE PFP STRATEGY IS NOT WORKING. MA HAS BEEN
VISITING KEELUNG TO SUPPORT MAYOR HSU, AND THE KMT IN KEELUNG
IS HIGHLIGHTING THE STRONG CONNECTION BETWEEN MA AND HSU. END
COMMENT.)

OTHER RACES
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5. (C) PFP CHAIRMAN JAMES SOONG, LIAO TOLD AIT, WILL VISIT
KEELUNG CITY AND HUALIEN COUNTY TO CAMPAIGN FOR PFP
CANDIDATES. SOONG IS LARGELY INDIFFERENT TO THE LOWER LEVEL
RACES FOR COUNTY AND CITY COUNCILORS AND TOWN MAGISTRATES,
LIAO LAMENTED, NOTING THAT THESE OFFER THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THE PFP TO WIN ELECTIONS AND, THUS, KEEP THE PARTY ALIVE.
LIAO HIMSELF WILL TRAVEL TO HUALIEN COUNTY, KEELUNG CITY, AND
TAINAN CITY AND COUNTY TO MOBILIZE SUPPORT FOR CANDIDATES AT
THE COUNCIL LEVEL. THROUGHOUT THE CONVERSATION, LIAO
WONDERED ALOUD ABOUT THE PFP'S FATE, EXPRESSED THE NEED FOR
THE PFP TO COLLABORATE MORE CLOSELY WITH THE KMT AND SEEMED
RESIGNED TO A DISMAL FUTURE FOR THE PARTY.

SOONG'S OWN POLITICAL ASPIRATIONS
--------------


6. (C) LIAO CONFIRMED TO AIT THAT CHAIRMAN SOONG IS
SERIOUSLY ASSESSING HIS OPTIONS FOR A POSSIBLE RUN IN NEXT
YEAR'S TAIPEI CITY MAYORAL RACE. KMT CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU,
HE NOTED, WOULD NOT BE AT ALL PLEASED WITH OR SUPPORTIVE OF
ANY PLAN THAT MIGHT PUT SOONG IN DIRECT COMPETITION WITH MA
FOR THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. LIAO, HOWEVER,
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT SOONG WOULD NEED KMT SUPPORT FOR A MAYORAL
BID, OTHERWISE HE COULD END UP IN A RE-PLAY OF HIS FAILED
2000 PRESIDENTIAL BID, WHICH SPLIT THE PAN-BLUE VOTE AND GAVE
THE ELECTION TO DPP'S CHEN SHUI-BIAN. LIAO, NEVERTHELESS,
WAS SKEPTICAL THIS WOULD HAPPEN, SINCE SOONG AND MA ARE
CURRENTLY AT ODDS AND NOT COMMUNICATING WITH EACH OTHER.
KEEGAN