PRE-ELECTION SCENESETTER: CHIAYI CITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004357

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W, INR/EAP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2025
TAGS: PGOV PINR TW
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SCENESETTER: CHIAYI CITY

REF: TAIPEI 4158

Classified By: AIT ACTING DIRECTOR DAVID J. KEEGAN, REASON(S): 1.4 (B/
D)


1. SUMMARY. (C) CHIAYI CITY IS MORE THAN JUST ECONOMICALLY
DEPRESSED THESE DAYS. A FUNEREAL GLOOM LOOMS OVER THE DPP'S
TINY CITY OFFICE, AND THE MERE SUGGESTION THAT PRESIDENT CHEN
SHUI-BIAN MIGHT BE BROUGHT INTO TO ROUSE THE PARTY FAITHFUL
ON BEHALF OF MAYORAL CANDIDATE CHEN LI-CHEN SENDS GHOSTLY
CHILLS THROUGH THE AIR. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE LARGE,
WELL-LIT KMT OFFICES, ALTHOUGH STILL GUARDEDLY OPTIMISTIC,
WAS ALL BUSINESS WITH TELEPHONE CAMPAIGN ACTIVITY ON THE
FIRST FLOOR FULLY STAFFED AND OPERATIONAL. ODDLY, FOR THIS
MAYORAL RACE, CHIAYI CITY'S DPP IS MORE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT A
VISIT FROM KMT CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU THAN IS THE KMT ITSELF.
END SUMMARY.


2. (C) CLOSED UP SHOPS, A NEAR COMPLETE LACK OF CAMPAIGN
POSTERS OR BILLBOARDS AND A SENSE OF DESPAIR SUMS UP WHAT IS
LEFT OF CAMPAIGN ENTHUSIASM IN WHAT WAS ONCE KNOWN AS
TAIWAN'S "CRADLE OF DEMOCRACY." CHIAYI CITY WAS GOVERNED FOR
DECADES BY INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES, PRIMARILY A MOTHER AND
SISTERS FROM THE CURRENTLY INACTIVE FACTION KNOWN AS "HSU
CHIA PAN." THE FACTION SUPPORTED THE NOW-DPP CANDIDATE,
INCUMBENT CHIAYI CITY MAYOR CHEN LI-CHEN, IN THE LAST MAYORAL
ELECTION WHEN CHEN RAN AS AN INDEPENDENT. THE "HSU CHIA BAN"
LEADER, CHANG PO-YA (FORMER CHIAYI CITY MAYOR) NOW LEADS A
SUB-GROUP OF NON-PARTISAN LEGISLATORS, A FACT THAT TIES HER
HANDS SO THAT SHE CANNOT COME OUT IN SUPPORT OF A DPP
CANDIDATE. THIS TIME THE FACTION CANNOT AND WILL NOT EVEN
TRY TO PRODUCE VOTES FOR THIS ELECTION.


3. (C) BESIDES A LOCAL ECONOMY IN TATTERS, DPP OFFICIALS
TOLD AIT/K THAT THERE IS NO MORE ENTHUSIASM FOR THE DPP IN
CHIAYI CITY AND THAT LOCALS ARE SICK AND TIRED OF THE
DISPUTES, CORRUPTION AND CHAOS THAT NOW SURROUNDS THE ONCE
POPULAR PARTY. WITH JUST A FEW WEEKS TO THE ELECTION, NO ONE
AT THE CITY'S DPP OFFICE HARBORS ANY HOPE THAT PRESIDENT CHEN
CAN PULL THE PARTY BACK TOGETHER IN TIME TO KEEP THE DPP
INCUMBENT MAYOR IN OFFICE. THE VERY SUGGESTION THAT "A BIAN"
(PRESIDENT CHEN) OR ANY OTHER NATIONAL DPP FIGURE MIGHT COME
TO CAMPAIGN FOR THE DPP CANDIDATE WAS GREETED WITH GRIMACES.
DPP CITY OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT BARELY 800 PEOPLE TURNED UP
TO HELP OPEN CANDIDATE CHEN'S CAMPAIGN OFFICE. THERE SIMPLY,
THEY SAID, IS "NOTHING TO CELEBRATE."


4. (C) UNLIKE ANY OTHER CITY OR COUNTY YET VISITED BY
AIT/K, IN CHIAYI THE DPP AND THE KMT CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES ARE
COMPLETELY REVERSED. WHEREAS MOST KMT OFFICES IN THE SOUTH
ARE EMPHASIZING THE 3-IN-1 ELECTIONS AS A BATTLE BETWEEN
PARTIES AND A PRE-CURSOR TO THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION,
IN CHIAYI CITY THE KMT IS USING A DPP STRATEGY OF RUNNING ON
THE STRENGTH OF ITS CANDIDATE'S PERSONALITY. THE DPP, ON THE
OTHER HAND, IS RUNNING ON THE "BEN TU" (LOCALISM) ISSUE BY
TRYING TO CONVINCE VOTERS THIS IS A "PARTY TO PARTY" FIGHT
THAT CAN BE WON ONLY IF THE VOTERS SUPPORT THE DPP. WHEN
ASKED WHY IT ISN'T EMPHASIZING ITS CANDIDATE, DPP OFFICIALS
DESCRIBED CANDIDATE CHEN AS SOMEONE POPULARLY KNOWN AS HAVING
A VERY "BAD TEMPER."


5. (C) THE ODDEST HOPE STATED BY DPP OFFICIALS FOR THIS
ELECTION IS THEIR HOPE THAT KMT'S CHAIRMAN MA WILL COME TO
CHIAYI CITY TO CAMPAIGN FOR KMT CANDIDATE HUANG MING-HUI, A
HIGHLY POPULAR INCUMBENT LEGISLATIVE YUAN MEMBER AND NATIVE
OF CHIAYI CITY WHO HAS DEEP GRASSROOTS SUPPORT HERE DEVELOPED
THROUGH HER LONG-STANDING AND EXCELLENT SERVICES TO
CONSTITUENTS. THE DPP BELIEVES A VISIT BY MA, CLOSE TO THE
VOTING DATE OF DECEMBER 3, WILL STIR THE POT ENOUGH TO RILE
DPP SUPPORTERS TO BOTHER TO VOTE ON ELECTION DAY. IN FACT,
DPP OFFICIALS THINK A PERSONAL APPEARANCE BY KMT CHAIRMAN MAY
BE THE ONLY THING THAT CAN INSPIRE A SENSE OF "CRISIS" LARGE
ENOUGH TO SLAP DPP SUPPORTERS OUT OF THEIR DEPRESSION. IF "A
BIAN" CAN'T FIX THINGS OR THEY CAN'T FIND SOMETHING TO SLAP
DPP VOTERS OUT OF THE FUNK CREATED BY A CONFLUENCE OF
UNEMPLOYMENT, POOR FUTURE ECONOMIC PROSPECTS, DISGUST WITH
THE DPP AND DISDAIN FOR THE DPP CANDIDATE, THEY FEAR LOW
VOTER TURNOUT CERTAINLY WILL COST THEM THE ELECTION.


6. (C) COMMENT: MINUS A MIRACLE, NOTHING WILL LIFT THE
GLOOM FROM THE DPP'S PERCEPTION THAT THE ELECTION IS ALREADY
LOST. THE DEPRESSION AMONG DPP OFFICIALS, WHO AREN'T EVEN
BOTHERING TO PUT ON A CHEERFUL FACE IN HOPES OF GENERATING
ENTHUSIASM FOR THEIR CANDIDATE, IS PALPABLE. STILL, IN AN
AREA WITH TRADITIONALLY PRO-GREEN SENTIMENTS, THE KMT IS WISE
TO CAMPAIGN HARD AND REMAIN CAUTIOUS UNTIL THE LAST VOTE IS
CAST. END COMMENT.

KEEGAN
KEEGAN