PROSPECTS DIM FOR POSSIBLE VISIT BY PRC TAIWAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 004316

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW
SUBJECT: PROSPECTS DIM FOR POSSIBLE VISIT BY PRC TAIWAN
AFFAIRS OFFICE DIRECTOR CHEN YUNLIN

Classified By: AIT Acting Director David Keegan, Reasons: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Strait Exchange Foundation (SEF) Chairman
Chang Chun-hsiung, told the Director on October 20 that the
SEF welcomes a visit by PRC Taiwan Affairs Office Director
Chen Yunlin and hopes that Chen will meet not just with the
opposition Kuomintang (KMT) but also with government
authorities. The next day, however, National Security
Council Counselor Chen Chung-hsin told the Acting Director
that Taiwan will require Chen Yunlin to agree to hold talks
with Taiwan Government officials as a condition for approving
his visit to Taiwan. Taiwan authorities expect Chen Yunlin
to refuse unless Taiwan accepts the "92 Consensus." That
will be a deal breaker. If the proposed visit by Chen Yunlin
does not take place, the KMT will blame the ruling Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) for blocking dialogue, while the DPP
will blame the KMT for being pro-China. Once again,
cross-Strait policy has become an electoral gambit. End
Summary.


2. (C) Chang Chun-hsiung, Chairman of the SEF, noted to the
Director on October 20 that the opposition KMT has proposed a
visit to Taiwan by PRC Taiwan Affairs Office Director Chen
Yunlin. SEF's position, Chang said, is 1) that it welcomes a
visit by Chen Yunlin, and 2) hopes Chen Yunlin will have
contact not just with the KMT but also meet formally with the
ruling party authorities. From the viewpoint of SEF, this
would be a breakthrough. President Bush has called for the
PRC to hold dialogue with the Taiwan ruling party in addition
to the opposition and therefore, Chang argued, the SEF
position on a possible Chen Yunlin visit tracks with U.S.
policy.


3. (C) The next day, October 21, however, National Security
Council Counselor Chen Chung-hsin told the ADIR that the
Taiwan authorities will require Chen Yunlin to hold official
talks with the Taiwan government as a condition for allowing
him to visit Taiwan. Chen Chung-hsin acknowledged that Chen
Yunlin is very unlikely to agree to talks with Taiwan
government officials because Taiwan rejects Beijing's
precondition for such talks -- acceptance of the "1992
consensus" on one China.


4. (U) According to Taiwan press reports, the KMT is
inviting PRC Taiwan Affairs Office Director Chen Yunlin to
attend a KMT-Chinese Communist Party (CCP) forum on economic
issues in Taiwan in mid-December and the KMT-run National
Policy Foundation plans soon to apply to the Mainland Affairs
Council for approval of the visit by the PRC delegation to be
headed by Chen Yunlin. Taiwan press also reports that an
unnamed Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) official said there is
no indication Chen Yunlin would be willing to meet with
Taiwan officials and he might even avoid contact with
officials, which would make it difficult for the Taiwan
Government to approve a visit by Chen Yunlin. Taiwan
officials also ask rhetorically whether the PRC would be
willing to invite a high-ranking Taiwan official to visit the
Mainland, suggesting a possible Chen Yunlin visit also
involves questions of reciprocity.

Comment
--------------


5. (C) Neither Chang nor Chen is a DPP policy insider. In
this case, we are inclined to credit Chen with the more
realistic angle. The DPP has nothing to gain from permitting
a visit by Chen Yunlin and no reason to grant a victory to
the KMT as elections approach. Once again cross-Strait
policy has been ensnared by politics.
KEEGAN