TAIWAN'S DECEMBER ELECTIONS: COOPERATION AND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 004262

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: TAIWAN'S DECEMBER ELECTIONS: COOPERATION AND
COMPETITION WITHIN BLUE AND GREEN COALITIONS

REF: TAIPEI 4158

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY.


1. (U) Summary: With Taiwan's local elections six weeks
away, both Pan-Blue and Pan-Green coalitions have been
working to cooperate on candidates to eliminate
intra-coalition competition. After several months of
off-again-on-again negotiations, the Pan-Green camp's
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Taiwan Solidarity
Union (TSU) and the Pan-Blue camp's Kuomintang party (KMT)
and People's First Party (PFP) have each achieved a mixed bag
of cooperation and unresolved competition. The two Green
parties remain in direct competition in one race and the Blue
parties in four races. End Summary


2. (U) Originally, 77 candidates registered to run in the 5
city mayor and 18 county magistrate races on December 3 -- 20
DPP, 20 KMT, 4 PFP and 4 TSU, with the remaining 31
candidates running on independent tickets. Subsequently, one
DPP candidate withdrew and one PFP candidate was
disqualified, leaving 75 candidates in the race. The Central
Election Committee (CEC) is reviewing the candidates'
qualifications and will announce a formal list of candidates
on November 22.

Pan-Blue Cooperates In All But Four Races
--------------


3. (SBU) The KMT and PFP succeeded in reaching agreement on
candidates in many districts, leaving Keelung and Taichung
cities and Hualien and Miaoli counties with Pan-Blue
candidates facing -- and undermining -- each other. In
Kinmen County, the KMT, PFP and pan-Blue New Party have
agreed to jointly support incumbent New Party Magistrate Lee
Chu-fen, while in Lienchiang County (Matsu),the KMT will
support incumbent PFP Magistrate Chen Hsueh-sheng. In
return, PFP candidates in Ilan and Hsinchu counties have
withdrawn and pledged to support the KMT candidates there.
In Taipei County, generally viewed as the most important
race, PFP member Wang An-pang pulled out in lieu of KMT
candidate Chou Hsi-wei. The two parties agreed to cooperate
in Chiayi City in support of KMT legislator Huang Ming-hui
for Mayor, and former PFP legislator Hsieh Chang-hsieh pulled
out of the Changhua County race. Chang Jung-kung, Director
of the KMT Central Committee Mainland Affairs Department,
told AIT that the PFP agreed to withdraw its candidates in
Chiayi City and Changhua County thanks to mediation efforts
by Legislative Yuan (LY) Speaker Wang Jin-pyng and local
politicians.


4. (SBU) In Keelung City, incumbent KMT Mayor Hsu Tsai-li
and PFP legislator Liu Wen-hsiung are in a bruisingly close
race with each other, while the joint Pan-Green candidate,
TSU's Chen Chien-ming, is trailing ten points behind. Liu

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and Hsu have a history that makes it unlikely either will
drop out. In 1997, Hsu ran as an independent against Liu,
then the KMT candidate, splitting the pan-Blue vote and
allowing the DPP candidate to score an upset victory. Now
Hsu and Liu are once again locked in head-to-head
competition. In Taichung City, incumbent KMT Mayor Jason Hu
has a considerable lead in the polls. With a large
percentage of undecided voters, it is possible but unlikely
that his re-election could be affected by PFP legislator Shen
Chih-hui's insistence on remaining in the race. KMT official
Chang Jung-kung told AIT that the PFP tried to make a deal
with the KMT, proposing that its candidate drop out of the
Taichung City race in return for the KMT candidate dropping
out of the Keelung race. The KMT did not agree because it
believes Jason Hu will win in Taichung regardless of whether
there is a PFP candidate, and the KMT sees no reason to give
up the Keelung race, where its candidate is the incumbent
mayor.


5. (SBU) Hualien County incumbent KMT Magistrate Hsieh
Shen-shan is expected to win another term in spite of a
challenge from PFP legislator Fu Kin-chi. KMT Mainland
Affairs Director Chang told AIT that while the PFP has little
chance of winning in Hualien County, it has decided to keep
its candidate in the race to put pressure on the KMT and
maintain PFP influence. While the largely Hakka Miaoli
County is normally a safe Blue district, the surprise KMT
choice of a non-Hakka candidate has made the race
unexpectedly competitive. Several Hakka candidates have
joined the fray, Soochow University Professor Emile Sheng
noted, and this may actually help the KMT candidate by
splitting the Hakka vote. More generally, Chang and Sheng
both said that nonviable candidates sometimes enter races
just in hopes of collecting payoffs or other benefits in
return for dropping out or not campaigning hard. According
to Sheng, new KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou has refused to engage
in the traditional payoff practice.

Pan-Green Cooperates In All But One Race
--------------


6. (SBU) On the Pan-Green side, integration negotiations
were considerably smoother. The DPP and TSU were able agree
on joint candidates in all election districts except Tainan
City, where DPP incumbent Mayor Hsu Tain-tsair and former TSU
legislator Chien Lin Hui-chun will campaign against each
other and against KMT candidate Chen Jung-sheng. Mayor Hsu
continues to lead in public opinion polls. DPP Keelung City
nominee Wang Tuo dropped out of the race at the last minute,
throwing his support to the TSU's Chen Chien-ming, and the
TSU returned the favor by dropping plans to run a candidate

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in Chiayi City. According to Emile Sheng, other potential
DPP candidates in Keelung, who had been prevented from
entering the race because of Wang Tuo's candidacy, were
incensed when Wang dropped out in favor of a TSU candidate.
TSU candidate Chen has picked up only a portion of Wang's

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supporters, with other supporters backing the KMT candidate.
Pan-Green parties did not bother to nominate any candidates
in the Blue stronghold islands of Kinmen and Matsu
(Lienchiang County).

Campaign Oddities
--------------


7. (U) Although the Pan-Blue vs. Pan-Green match-up will be
the main event in most cites and counties, there are a few
unusual situations. In Nantou County, two Pan-Blue
candidates are running against two Pan-Green candidates. DPP
incumbent Nantou County Magistrate Lin Tsung-nan is running
as an independent after an unexpected failure to win his
party's renomination. The DPP candidate is Tsai Huang-lang.
KMT County Councilman Lin Ming-chen is also running as an
independent after losing the KMT nomination to Lee
Chao-ching.


8. (SBU) In Taitung County, none of the four parties
nominated a candidate. Rather, DPP and KMT candidates are
running as independents in the footsteps of popular incumbent
independent Magistrate Hsu Ching-yuan, who is not running for
re-election. Hsu supports his Deputy Magistrate, DPP member
Liu Chao-hao. The KMT refused to nominate Wu Chun-li because
of his involvement in a corruption lawsuit, so Wu is running
as an independent candidate. According to Emile Sheng, the
KMT is still supporting Wu despite the corruption lawsuit,
and the DPP is providing support to Liu.

Districts To Watch
--------------


9. (SBU) Taipei County is the defining contest for both
Pan-Blue and Pan-Green camps, according to AIT's contacts.
KMT campaign strategy, Chang told AIT, is to characterize the
December 3 race as the second and final battle between
President Chen and Mayor Ma (the first being Ma's 1998
victory over Chen for Taipei Mayor) and to portray the
December 3 elections, particularly Taipei County, as a
precursor to the 2008 presidential election. By contrast,
the DPP candidate in Taipei County, Luo Wen-jia, has been
trying to distance himself from the beleaguered President
Chen, whose ratings in public opinion polls have plummeted
due to a series of scandals and government problems. Luo's
introduction of the "New DPP Movement" had been intended to
do just that. However, almost all polls and pundits agree it
has hurt rather than helped him.

10. (SBU) In addition to Taipei County, the KMT is focusing
its efforts on winning Ilan County and Chiayi City, both long
under the rule of the DPP, which calls these two districts
"the sacred lands of democracy." Of the races where Pan-Blue
parties could not settle on one candidate, Keelung City and
Miaoli County are the most competitive districts where the
KMT risks defeat.
PAAL