OPPOSITION TO POSTPONE CONTROVERSIAL CROSS-STRAIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004251

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW CH
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION TO POSTPONE CONTROVERSIAL CROSS-STRAIT
PEACE PROMOTION BILL IN RESPONSE TO RULING PARTY ATTACKS

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary: President Chen, under pressure over charges
of corruption and cronyism, has shifted to full campaign
mode, accusing the opposition of being co-opted by Beijing.
During a television interview on October 17, Chen termed the
People First Party (PFP) "Cross-Strait Peace Promotion Bill"
the Taiwan edition of Beijing's "Anti-Secession Law" and
called for the bill to be blocked by violent means if
necessary. The controversial PFP bill specifically
acknowledges the "1992 consensus" (referring in explanatory
notes to differing interpretations of one China),which the
ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has long rejected,
and establishes a new opposition-controlled legislative
committee to manage cross-strait policy. In addition, Chen
again accused PFP Chairman James Soong of meeting covertly in
the U.S. early this year with Chen Yunlin, Director of the
PRC Taiwan Affairs Office, a charge Soong vehemently denies.
The PFP will likely postpone legislative action on the "Peace
Promotion Bill" in hopes of preventing Chen from using it as
a campaign issue. End Summary.


2. (U) In the past few days, DPP leaders have weighed in
strongly against the "Cross-Strait Peace Promotion Bill,"
which specifically acknowledges the "1992 consensus"
(referring in the draft law's explanatory notes to differing
interpretations of one China),a key PRC demand that the DPP
rejects. The bill would also place control of cross-Strait
relations in the hands of a new Legislative Yuan (LY)
committee to be selected by political parties according to
their representation in the LY. If implemented, control of
cross-Strait policy would be moved into the hands of the
opposition Pan-Blue parties (Kuomintang (KMT) and PFP),which
have the majority of seats in the LY. During a television
interview on October 17, Chen said the bill, which he called
the Taiwan edition of Beijing's Anti-Secession Law, must be
blocked from passage at all costs, even if it takes a bloody
battle in the LY. A day earlier Chen had charged: "It's a
peace promotion law on the surface, but a surrender law in
reality.... If it is passed, I'm afraid... two million
Taiwanese would take to the streets to oppose it." DPP
Chairman Su Tseng-chang charged that the "surrender law"
would complete the PRC's three-step strategy to swallow
Taiwan, the first two steps being the PRC's anti-secession
law and the PRC's invitations to then Kuomintang (KMT)
Chairman Lien Chan and PFP Chairman James Soong to visit. In
addition to attacking the PFP bill, Chen Shui-bian has also
attacked PFP Chairman James Soong for allegedly meeting
covertly in the U.S. early this year with Chen Yunlin,
Director of the PRC Taiwan Affairs Office, a charge Soong
vehemently denies.


3. (C) Late on October 17, PFP Policy Director Vincent Chang
(Hsien-yao) told the press that the PFP has decided to
postpone LY action on its controversial "Cross-Strait Peace
Promotion Bill" until late December to prevent Chen Shui-bian
from using the bill as a campaign issue in the December 3
local elections. Earlier the same day, Soochow University
Professor Emile Sheng had told AIT that he did not expect the
KMT or PFP to push the controversial bill forward because it
would provide the DPP an opportunity to shift the focus of
media and public attention away from DPP corruption to the
controversial issue of cross-Strait policy. That would
enable Chen and the DPP to seize the moral high ground and
win votes from the opposition by focusing on the "China
threat" and their efforts to protect Taiwan's interests.
Prominent DPP legislator Lin Cho-shui recently suggested to
AIT that it is uncertain if the cross-Strait bill will
actually pass because some KMT members might defect on a
vote. Even if passed, Lin added, he was confident that the
court would reject the bill as unconstitutional. Bearing out
Lin's doubts, KMT legislator Su Chi told AIT last week that
he and many other KMT legislators "do not support" the PFP
cross-Strait bill and would be quite happy to see it
scuttled.

Comment
--------------


4. (C) Taiwan has entered a no-holds barred campaign season,
and Chen Shui-bian is trying, as he has in past elections, to
seize the initiative from the opposition by shifting media
and public attention from DPP troubles by tarring the
opposition as Beijing fellow travelers. By postponing the
Cross-Strait Peace Promotion Bill, the opposition parties
hope to keep the focus on DPP scandals, corruption and
cronyism, issues which have dominated the media in recent
weeks and which threaten to cost the DPP dearly in the
December 3 polls.

PAAL