MEDIA REACTION: CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS, ZHAO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000417

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD -
ROBERT PALLADINO
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS, ZHAO
ZIYANG'S DEATH

Summary: In general, the intense news coverage of last
Saturday's historic direct charter flights across the
Taiwan Strait has died down as local dailies have
switched their focus to covering local political issues
such as the election of the president and vice
president of the Legislative Yuan.

Two English-language newspapers - "China Post" and
"Taiwan News" - continued, however, to comment on the
direct cross-Strait charter flights. The former, a pro-
unification publication, said the flights and Beijing's
announcement Friday that it is willing to talk with
Taiwan "indicate Beijing is ready to tolerate Taiwan's
separate entity under the name Republic of China or
Chinese Taipei." The pro-independence "Taiwan News,"
however, said "it is wise for Taiwan to try to keep the
atmosphere in cross-strait ties warm and thus make it
even more embarrassing for Beijing to block progress
toward dtente by enacting the `anti-secession' law."

Two other newspapers carried pieces on China affairs.
"China Times" published a commentary by Lin Chong-pin,
a former Mainland Affairs Council vice chairman and
former vice minister of the Ministry of National
Defense, about Beijing having a new strategic framework
whose goal is to replace the United States influence in
East Asia. The "Taipei Times" noted that "China's head-
in-the sand approach towards Zhao [Ziyang's] political
record is an indication of its willingness to deny
reality, and of the gulf that separates it from the
values that characterize civilized nations." End
summary.


1. Cross-Strait Relations

A) "PRC Favors ROC Status Quo"


The conservative, pro-unification, English-language
"China Post" noted in an editorial (2/1):

"Beijing's latest overtures to Taiwan were all drowned
out in Saturday's fanfare over the first direct
commercial flights between the two sides in 56 years.

"Taiwan's media made scant coverage of Beijing's
announcement Friday that the mainland "is willing to
talk with Taiwan `president' Chen Shui-bian' and the
ruling Democratic Progressive Party as long as they
`agree to return to the 1992 consensus and scrap the
party's independence goal."

This is the first time Beijing says it is ready to deal
with the `separatist' Chen and the DPP; it is also the
first time China Daily, Beijing's mouthpiece in
English, calls him `president,' albeit in brackets.
There are no harsh words. .

"Beijing also assures Taiwan that the proposed anti-
secession law is not aiming at unification but rather
to preserve the status quo by preventing Taiwan from
breaking away. China has no intention of changing the
status quo by forcing unification on Taiwan.

"The remarks indicate Beijing is ready to tolerate
Taiwan's separate entity under the name Republic of
China or Chinese Taipei. . Beijing has softened, if
Taipei responds in kind, talks can be resumed soon."

B) "Flights Offer Chance to Boost Tactical Role"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News"
editorialized (2/1):

". It is clear that, as far as the DPP government is
concerned, initiatives, such as the effort to re-
engineer our constitution, do not aim to change our
status quo of independence.

"So long as Taiwan does not engage in unnecessary
`provocative' moves toughing on the issue of
sovereignty, Beijing will lose credible grounds to
engage in arbitrary actions that could endanger the
Taiwan Strait's stability.

"From this perspective, the ball is now in the hands of
the PRC authorities, since Beijing has announced its
intention to arrange for its rubber stamp National
People's Congress to enact an `anti-secession' law in
March.

"Beijing is in an embarrassing position as enacting the
so-called law will demonstrate its intent to
arbitrarily undermine the status quo to the world
community, but refraining from enacting the bill now
would cause the PRC regime to lose face.

"Hence, it is wise for Taiwan to try to keep the
atmosphere in cross-strait ties warm and thus make it
even more embarrassing for the PRC regime to block
progress toward dtente by enacting the `anti-
secession' law.

"Moreover, by adopting a stance on the possible
expansion of the charter service and other goodwill
measures to increase cross-strait interchanges, Taiwan
can show her own sincerity to promote peace and
stability.
"From a geo-strategic point of view, Taiwan's best
location lies in playing an integrative role to allow
the industrial division of labor in the Asia-Pacific
region function smoothly while at the same time rapidly
upgrading the quality of our own society to widen the
qualitative gap with the PRC.


"The onset of direct cross-strait flights poses some
risks to Taiwan's national security environment, but
also serves to bring neighboring economic interests
into the web of cross-strait relations. .

"The risk lies in the trend of improved of [sic] cross-
strait exchanges to enhance the degree of incorporation
of Taiwan into China. But such exchanges will also
bring both Taiwan and China deeper into the orbit of
the Asia-Pacific economic web and thus tend to enhance
Taiwan's long-term security. .

"If this condition can be met, the accomplishment of
non-stop charter flights should help in general to ease
the degree of confrontation between Taiwan and China,
enhance the competitiveness of each side, enhance peace
and stability in this region and win affirmation from
the world community.

"From this angle, Taiwan should consider grasping the
opportunity to step forward to the regularly scheduled
cross-strait commercial air services, especially to
expedite air cargo shipments.

"Displaying wiliness to expedite cross-strait
interchange and open discussions without conditions
will enhance Taiwan's ability to appeal to support from
the international powers, especially the United States,
and build her image as a peace-maker instead of a
trouble-maker.

"By so doing, Taiwan may be able to consolidate the
advantages of a geo-strategic position as a hub for the
regional economic development and demonstrate the
provocative nature of Beijing's plans to enact its so-
called `anti-secession' law."

C) "Use Wisdom to Secure a Victory"

Professor Lin Chong-pin of Tamkang University's
Graduate Institute of International Affairs and
Strategic Studies noted in the weekly column of the
centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" (2/1):

"`To gain control of East Asia without having to wage a
war' is the new big strategic [framework] of Beijing's.
This strategy includes policies governing China's
diplomacy, national defense, cross-Strait [position]
and domestic situation, and with the increasing
coordination among these various policies, the final
outcome and effect [of these policies] are expected to
be greatly enlarged. Even though Beijing did not
disclose it, one of its ultimate goals is to use
economic and cultural power to replace the United
States in East Asia, which now still plays a leading
role in the region. Beijing is also rapidly developing
and modernizing its military in an attempt to reinforce
the effects created by its non-military (e.g.
diplomatic) means, but it's better for Beijing to keep
[its military] ready just in case and not use it. .

"The strategy toward Taiwan is just a part of Beijing's
big strategic framework, and [Chinese President] Hu
Jintao is expected to use more diversified and new
approaches [in this aspect] .

"For [U.S. President George W.] Bush's second term,
even though he has a strong will, the privilege of
[being considered the world's sole superpower] no
longer exists. The economic strength of China keeps on
rising, and its cultural influence is expanding, too.
Both sides of the Taiwan Strait differ greatly in size,
and Beijing does not want to give up the use of force
and other means like diplomatic isolation, political
belittling and sowing discord in Taiwan's society. To
secure a victory in the face of a strong power, Taiwan
needs to use its wisdom."


2. Zhao Ziyang's Death

"Zhao's Death Shakes Beijing's Rule"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times"
commented in an editorial (2/1):

". Beijing's reluctance to rehabilitate Zhao's
reputation shows that although China is adopting a
liberal approach in economic development, it remains an
authoritarian regime and is ignorant of the concepts of
democracy and human rights. China's leadership will
not ignore any force that could possibly challenge the
rule of the Communist Party. . [D]emocratic change,
embodied by Zhao, is certainly a threat. .

"China's head-in-the sand approach towards Zhao's
political record is an indication of its willingness to
deny reality, and of the gulf that separates it from
the values that characterize civilized nations.
Because of what Zhao represents, his passing could
serve as a platform on which the Chinese government
could show to its people and the international
community that it is capable of facing up to historical
errors, and that it is willing to correct past
mistakes. Beijing has missed this opportunity. ."

PAAL