PRE-ELECTION SCENESETTER: TAINAN CITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004145 SIPDIS STATE PASS AIT/W, INR/EAP E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2025 TAGS: PGOV PINR TW SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SCENESETTER: TAINAN CITY REF: A. A) TAIPEI 3900 ¶B. B) TAIPEI 3916 Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: WITH A TWO-TIME KMT LOSER HEADING THE MAYORAL TICKET, THE ONLY HOPE FOR THE BELEAGUERED CANDIDATE IS THE RECENT ENTRY OF A TSU CANDIDATE WHO COULD SPLIT THE PAN-GREEN CAMP. HOWEVER, THE DPP INCUMBENT IS SWEATING LESS OVER THE POSSIBILITY OF THE KMT COMING FROM BEHIND TO GRAB A WIN THAN OVER THE POPULARITY OF HIS TSU RIVAL, WHO, DESPITE PLEAS BY THE SOUTHERN TAIWAN ASSOCIATION, REFUSES TO PULL OUT OF THE RACE, SAYING THE DREADFUL PERFORMANCE OF THE INCUMBENT AND THE WEAK KMT CANDIDATE MAKE A RACE TO THE FINISH A WORTHWHILE ONE. LOCALS SEEM TO AGREE THE MAYORAL BATTLE IS ALL-GREEN, BETWEEN THE DPP AND TSU, SAYING THE KMT CANDIDATE ISN'T EVEN A VIABLE PLAYER DUE TO HIS OWN HISTORY OF INCOMPETENCE. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) CHIEN-LIN HUI-CHUN, A RECENT TSU ENTRY INTO THE TAINAN CITY MAYORAL RACE (REFTEL A),HAS SPLIT THE GREEN CAMP AND HAS INCUMBENT DPP MAYOR HSU NERVOUS. CHIEN-LIN, ECHOING A THEME ALSO HEARD IN THE KAOHSIUNG COUNTY MAGISTERIAL RACE, STRONGLY BELIEVES THE DPP HAS TURNED IN A POOR ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND LACKS A SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT PLAN FOR THE CITY. WITH A CAMPAIGN THAT WILL STRESS DPP'S WASTEFUL SPENDING ON CITY FESTIVALS AND FIREWORKS RATHER THAN ON INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS, SHE HAS AN APPEALING MESSAGE THAT COULD POTENTIALLY PULL THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER THE DPP IN TAINAN. ALTHOUGH SHE WILL NOT ESTABLISH HER CAMPAIGN OFFICE UNTIL OCTOBER 15, 2005, THERE IS NO DOUBT SHE WILL STAY THE COURSE, ACCORDING TO HUANG CHAO-CHAN, THE TSU VICE SECRETARY GENERAL WHO FINANCED CHIEN-LIN'S CAMPAIGN TO THE TUNE OF NT 5 MILLION. PROFESSOR YANG TZE-CHUANG, A PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS FROM TAINAN'S CHENG GONG UNIVERSITY SAID, IN FACT, CHIEN-LIN COULDN'T EVEN BEGIN HER CAMPAIGN BEFORE THE TSU FINANCING CAME THROUGH BECAUSE HER HUSBAND REFUSED TO FINANCE THE CAMPAIGN WITH FAMILY FUNDS. ¶3. (C) ECHOING ECONOMIC WOES AS THE BIG CAMPAIGN ISSUE, THE KMT CITY CHAIRMAN CHUANG SUNG-WONG, A RETIRED JOURNALIST, TRIED TO PRESENT HIS CANDIDATE IN THE BEST POSSIBLE LIGHT. CANDIDATE CHEN JUNG-SHEN HAS FAILED TWICE IN PURSUING THE MAYORAL SEAT AND HAS NO MONEY OF HIS OWN TO INVEST IN THIS CAMPAIGN. HOWEVER, THE KMT CHAIRMAN STRESSED THAT CHEN, AS A NATIVE OF TAINAN, KNOWS THE CITY WELL AND, WITH THE HELP OF CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU, CAN MAKE A GOOD SHOWING IN THE ELECTION. CITY CHAIRMAN CHUANG BLAMED CHEN'S PREVIOUS LOSS IN THE LAST ELECTION ON THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER PAN-BLUE CANDIDATE WHO WAS RUNNING. IN FACT, AIT/K CONTACTS IN TAINAN CITY, ALL OF WHOM ARE FAMILIAR PERSONALLY WITH ALL THREE CANDIDATES, ASSURED US THAT THE KMT ISN'T EVEN A FACTOR IN THIS RACE AND THE ONLY CANDIDATES TO WATCH WERE DPP'S HSU AND TSU'S CHIEN-LIN. PROFESSOR YANG OF CHENG GONG UNIVERSITY SIPDIS WENT EVEN A STEP FURTHER BY PREDICTING FLAT OUT THAT INCUMBENT MAYOR HSU COULD SLEEP THROUGH THE ENTIRE CAMPAIGN AND STILL WIN DUE TO CHIEN-LIN'S LATE START AND HER LACK OF FUNDING. ¶4. (C) IN A SEPTEMBER 30, 2005, DISCUSSION WITH INCUMBENT MAYOR HSU, WHO HAD JUST RETURNED FROM REGISTERING HIS CANDIDACY, HE WAS CLEARLY NERVOUS ABOUT THE ENTRY OF THE TSU CANDIDATE. HOWEVER, HE BELIEVES HIS GOOD PERFORMANCE AND WHAT HE SEES AS TAINAN'S FLOURISHING ECONOMY WILL KEEP VOTERS ON HIS SIDE. STILL, HSU WAS STICKING WITH AN OFT-REPEATED DPP TENET IN TIGHT RACES THAT ROUGHLY EQUATES WITH "IT AIN'T OVER 'TIL IT'S OVER." EVEN HSU'S CAMPAIGN DIRECTOR, CITY COUNCIL WOMAN AND DPP CITY CHAIRMAN CHEN TING-FEI, INDICATED THE ONLY DPP PROBLEM IN THIS RACE, BESIDES THE NATIONAL BAD IMAGE OF THE DPP ITSELF, IS THE TSU CANDIDATE. WHILE THE DPP CITY OFFICE HAD DONE EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO KEEP TSU'S CHIEN-LIN FROM REGISTERING HER CANDIDACY, ITS ONLY HOPE NOW IS THAT THE CENTRAL LEADERS OF THE TWO PARTIES MIGHT NEGOTIATE A WAY OUT OF THIS CONUNDRUM, SINCE THEIR LOCAL EFFORTS HAVE FAILED MISERABLY. HSU'S CAMPAIGN DIRECTOR SAID THEY ARE CAMPAIGNING NOW AS IF CHIEN-LIN IS THE ONLY COMPETITION. ALTHOUGH COUNCIL WOMAN CHEN BELIEVES PAN-GREEN VOTERS WILL EXERCISE THE "QIBAO" EFFECT (THE "DUMP AND PROTECT" EFFECT WHICH EXHIBITS AT THE 11TH HOUR WHEN VOTERS TOSS ASIDE THE CANDIDATE TO WHOM THEY PROFESS LOYALTY IN ORDER TO VOTE FOR SOMEONE LIKELY TO WIN),MAYOR HSU'S CAMPAIGN WILL NOT SIT EASY UNTIL THE LAST VOTE IS CAST. ¶5. (C) REGARDING THE ISSUE OF THE CENTRAL AUTHORITIES ATTEMPT TO FORCE THE RELOCATION OF THE ONE HUNDRED YEAR OLD TAINAN UNIVERSITY IN TAINAN CITY (REFTEL B) MAYOR HSU HAS RECOGNIZED THE ISSUE'S IMPORTANCE AND TAKEN STRONG STEPS TO DEAL WITH IT. HSU TOLD AIT/K THAT HE HAS MADE IT CLEAR TO CENTRAL AUTHORITIES AND THE MEDIA HE WILL RESIGN OVER THIS ISSUE IF IT IS NOT RESOLVED ACCORDING TO THE WISHES OF THE TAINAN CITIZENRY. WHILE HE INDICATED THAT WHILE SOME HORSE-TRADING WILL TAKE PLACE, HE IS CONFIDENT HE WILL GET WHAT MOST OF WHAT HE WANTS, WHICH IS TO KEEP MOST OF THE UNIVERSITY ON CITY LAND, AND THUS COMPLETELY SET ASIDE THIS HERETOFORE CONTENTIOUS ISSUE. ¶6. (C) ALTHOUGH THE PRESS HAS INDICATED THE SOUTHERN TAIWAN ASSOCIATION (STA) (REFTEL A),A GROUP OF DEEP-GREEN ACADEMICS AND MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS WHO COMMAND RESPECT AMONG LESS EDUCATED VOTERS IN SOUTHERN TAIWAN, HAVE SAID THEY WILL NEGOTIATE BETWEEN THE TWO CANDIDATES, PROFESSOR KUO CHIH-WEN, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING AT NATIONAL SUN YAT-SEN UNIVERSITY AND A HIGH PROFILE MEMBER OF THE STA, SAID STA WILL DO ONLY LIMITED NEGOTIATING UNDER THE TABLE TO GET CHIEN-LIN OUT OF THE RACE. HE MADE IT CLEAR THAT STA WILL COME OUT PUBLICLY SOON IN A PRESS CONFERENCE TO SUPPORT MAYOR HSU IN THIS ELECTION IF CHIEN-LIN DOESN'T PULL OUT IN A TIMELY FASHION. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: AN INTERESTING DICHOTOMY APPEARS IN THIS RACE ON THE ECONOMIC ISSUE. WHILE THE KMT AND TSU CANDIDATES WILL STRIKE HARD AGAINST THE DPP ON WORSENING LOCAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, THE DPP CANDIDATE AND HIS CAMPAIGN MANAGER BELIEVE THAT TAINAN CITY IS FLOURISHING WITH JOBS AND OPPORTUNITIES, PARTICULARLY IN THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY. THE INCREASING CLOSURE OF SHOP HOUSES DUE TO BANKRUPTCY OR BUSINESSES MOVING TO THE MAINLAND AS WELL AS THE DRAMATIC DECREASE IN REAL ESTATE PRICES IN THE CITY, HOWEVER, BESPEAK A DPP CANDIDATE OUT OF TOUCH WITH HIS CITY AND, POSSIBLY, SUBJECT TO REAL DAMAGE BY A DOUBLE FRONTAL ATTACK ON AN ISSUE ABOUT WHICH THE INCUMBENT APPEARS TO BE IN DENIAL. DAMAGE ON THAT FRONT COUPLED WITH A SPLIT PAN-GREEN VOTE COULD LIFT TSU CANDIDATE CHIEN-LIN'S PROSPECTS SIGNIFICANTLY IF SHE PUT CAN LIFE INTO A CAMPAIGN NOT YET OUT OF THE GATE. END COMMENT. PAAL