THE DPP ON THE DEFENSIVE NINE WEEKS BEFORE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 004043

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2015
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: THE DPP ON THE DEFENSIVE NINE WEEKS BEFORE
YEAR-END LOCAL ELECTIONS


Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: With just nine weeks remaining before
Taiwan's December 3 county magistrate/city mayor elections,
the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is on the
defensive because of criticism over scandals and lackluster
government performance. DPP candidates are trying to
compensate for the party's credibility deficit by focusing
their campaigns on their own individual records and voter
appeal. The "Three Kings and One Queen" (Premier Frank
Hsieh, DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang, Presidential Secretary
General Yu Shyi-kun, and Vice President Annette Lu) are
stumping for candidates with no apparent coordination,
generating speculation they are using the year-end elections
to position themselves for the 2008 presidential race.
Meanwhile, President Chen Shui-bian and other DPP leaders
have been hurling criticisms at new Kuomintang (KMT) Chairman
Ma Ying-jeou in an apparent attempt to stem Ma,s surging
popularity, the so-called "Ma Ying-jeou effect," which may
have long coattails in the December elections. End Summary.

Taipei County is the Key Race
--------------


2. (C) The DPP currently governs ten (eight counties and two
cities) of the 23 jurisdictions (18 counties and 5 cities)
being contested on December 3. (Note: The mayoral elections
for the two national level municipalities - Taipei City and
Kaohsiung City - will be held in December, 2006. End Note.)
The DPP is the ruling party in the counties of Taipei, Ilan,
Nantou, Changhua, Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Pingtung,
and the cities of Chiayi and Tainan. In recent weeks, some
DPP officials have stressed the importance of the party
retaining power in Taipei, Ilan, and Pingtung Counties -)
Taipei because of its large population; Ilan and Pingtung
because they are the hometowns of many DPP leaders.


3. (C) The key election for both the DPP and KMT is Taipei
County, whose population exceeds that of Taipei City (3.7
million to 2.6 million in 2000). Many political operatives
and analysts view Taipei County as pivotal to the election
results. One political analyst told AIT that the DPP must
win Taipei County to avoid being labeled the overall loser of
the December 3 elections, while the KMT must win to claim
overall election victory. At this early stage, the Taipei
County race remains too close to call, with leadership in
public opinion polls seesawing back and forth between the
DPP's Luo Wen-jia and the KMT's Chou Hsi-wei. Wu
Hsiang-jung, Deputy Director of the DPP Policy Research and
Coordinating Committee, told AIT that the DPP might lose Ilan
County in addition to an increasingly likely defeat in Chiayi
City. Balancing possible losses, the DPP may pick up Yunlin
County and possibly even Penghu County. Races in Miaoli and
Nantou Counties, he continued, are also close at this point.
The DPP may have problems in tight elections, Wu explained,
because the party,s current high level of voter
dissatisfaction saddles the party's candidates with an
initial vote deficit that they must overcome by relying on
their own individual record and voter appeal. So negative do
some DPP candidates view the DPP's image public image that
they do not want party leaders to visit their counties or
cities to campaign on their behalf, fearing this will cost
rather than win votes.

A Credibility Gap
--------------


4. (C) Since last April, Wu told AIT, public support for the
DPP, as indicated by the party,s internal polling, has
declined significantly due to scandals, poor government
performance, and constant criticism in the media. Charges of
corruption have been especially damaging to the party,s
erstwhile clean government image. Recently, the press has
highlighted a series of alleged ruling government blunders.
One involved DPP candidate for Taichung City Mayor and former
Government Information Office (GIO) Director Lin Jia-lung,
who was accused of not following proper government auditing
procedure and thus causing a delay in distributing the
tsunami relief aid that the GIO had collected while Lin was

SIPDIS
its Director. While no one has accused Lin of financial
malfeasance, he has been widely portrayed as careless and
incompetent. Lin is currently trailing his KMT opponent, the
popular KMT Mayor of Taichung Jason Hu, by 30 percentage
points in public opinion polls. When asked whether the DPP
has an election campaign strategy to counter this and other
alleged missteps, DPP Party Chairman Su Tseng-chang predicted
that voters will be understanding, and said that the DPP will
try to convince them that &it is a glorious act to support
the party.8 Wu was far less optimistic about Lin's chances.


5. (C) Just as the GIO tsunami relief fund scandal and the
violent riots by Thai laborers in Kaohsiung last month were
fading from the front pages, another controversy involving
the ruling party attracted island-wide attention. The press
reported that the Examination Yuan (EY) used one of President
Chen Shui-bian,s speeches as a test subject in a Senior
Civil Examination for Lawyers administered by the Examination
Yuan (EY) in late August. This caused a large public outcry
and opposition charges that the civil examination had
degenerated into a propaganda tool of the DPP. Examination
Yuan President Yao Chia-wen, a "deep Green" independence
fundamentalist, insisted to AIT that the EY leadership had
nothing to do with the selection of test questions, which had
been done solely by academic testing specialists. DPP Caucus
General Secretary Chen Chin-chun awkwardly defended the
Examination Yuan,s action by arguing that these kinds of
things &happened frequently during the rein of Chiang
Kai-shek . . . therefore, the opposition should not make a
fuss with trifles.8 Chen,s remarks created more public
criticism of the ruling DPP, with many commentators and
opposition politicians charging that the DPP has replaced its
original identity as the party of reform and honest
government with a &toadying culture8 that wastes
taxpayers, money on the visits of high ranking officials.
The NT $16.5 million (USD 550,000) temporary bridge
constructed for President Chen and Premier Frank Hsieh's
inspection of the Hsuehshan Tunnel in late August caused a
public outcry and government officials scrambled to defend
the bridge, a defense that came back to haunt the ruling
party when highway engineers demolished the bridge last week.
The furor over what critics called the "currying favor"
(ma-pi) bridge forced President Chen to cancel a visit to an
air FORCE base in Hsinchu County after soldiers complained to
the media that they were barred from taking leave in order to
rehearse for the President's visit.

Where is President Chan Shui-bian?
--------------


6. (SBU) Although the DPP is on the defensive, President
Chen Shui-bian has tried recently to stay above the fray.
Rather than respond to criticism, he has chosen to engage Ma
Ying-jeou, whose popularity has continued to rise following
his election as KMT chairman last July. Ma,s public support
rating stands at 65 percent according to a recent TVBS news
channel poll, up five percent from a similar survey in May.


7. (SBU) In an apparent attempt to divert attention from the
DPP,s troubles and stem the new KMT leader,s surging
popularity, President Chen publicly challenged Ma to: abandon
the KMT's &one China8 mythology and relate to contemporary
Taiwan; cease KMT opposition tactics so that cross-Strait
peace can move forward; and face up to the KMT party assets
controversy and recompense Taiwan society. If Ma will lead
the KMT in these directions, Chen stated, this will build a
unified Taiwan better able to resist China,s annexationist
ambitions. Ma politely thanked Chen for his suggestions but
stated that he will not respond to similar messages via the
media in the future.


8. (SBU) Other DPP leaders apparently hope to use the
current election campaigns to generate momentum for their own
runs for the presidency in 2008. In late August, Vice
President Annette Lu and DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang held
separate meetings with local party directors to prepare for
the year-end elections. Lu issued her invitation
independently and without notifying Chairman Su,s office,
which triggered speculation that she was trying to strengthen
support for herself among local constituencies, since
organizing the year-end elections is Su,s responsibility,
not hers.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Negative publicity is forcing DPP party and
government officials to spend valuable time and political
capital on damage control rather than focusing on the
upcoming elections. This is cause for concern among some
senior DPP officials, a number of whom, from "deep Green"
independence fundamentalist Yao Chia-wen to moderate New Tide
faction member and DPP Deputy Secretary General Yan Wan-chin,
have lamented to AIT the rising dissatisfaction with the DPP
because of the series of embarrassing incidents verging on
scandals. After a recent KMT Central Standing Committee
meeting, incumbent DPP Chiayi County Magistrate Chen Ming-wen
reportedly told his colleagues that Ma Ying-jeou,s winning
the KMT chairmanship has given KMT grassroots supporters a
huge lift in morale, and is having a "serious negative
impact8 on DPP chances in many closely contested elections,
such as Chiayi. Stating the DPP is in &an emergency
situation in Chiayi," Chen urged DPP leaders to formulate a
careful and comprehensive response to surge in KMT popularity
under Ma before it is too late. Natives of neighboring
Tainan, including Yan Wan-chin and NSC Deputy Secretary
General Paris Chang (Hsu-cheng) have told AIT of their
surprise at finding support for the DPP in their hometown so
low. DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang acknowledged to the press
that DPP supporters have grown silent and are reluctant to
admit affiliation with the party. As a remedy, Su said, the
party needs to discuss how to reawake voters, passion toward
the DPP. This may be easier said than done. As two senior
journalists working for pro-DPP media organizations told AIT:
&How can one become passionate if there is nothing to be
passionate about?8
PAAL