SEPTEMBER 25 RALLIES FOR AND AGAINST DEFENSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003962

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: SEPTEMBER 25 RALLIES FOR AND AGAINST DEFENSE
PROCUREMENT SPECIAL BUDGET

REF: TAIPEI 3947

Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D
)


1. (C) On Sunday, September 25, 20,000-40,000 people marched
in support of the USD 11.6 million Defense Procurement
Special Budget. The march and rally following were organized
by the "Hand-in-Hand to Protect Taiwan Grand Alliance," the
ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP),and several
pro-Taiwan independence groups. At the same time, some 200
protestors opposing the Special Budget held a sit-in in front
of the Legislative Yuan (LY) proclaiming the US arms deal
would fuel an arms race with China. Some members from the
two groups traded harsh words, but there was no violence.


2. (C) March organizer Huang Chao-tang, Chairman of World
United Formosans for Independence (WUFI),told the crowd that
the march showed the world that the people of Taiwan would
not be bullied by China and are determined to defend Taiwan's
independent sovereign status. Former President Lee Teng-hui
and Vice President Annette Lu did not participate in the
parade or give their announced speeches at the rally on
Ketagalan Boulevard in front of the Presidential Palace
following the march, Lee reportedly because of back problems.
A few government officials participated in the Sunday
events, including Examination Yuan President Yao Chia-wen
(see reftel),Council of Labor Affairs Minister Lee
Ying-yuan, and National Policy Adviser Wu Shu-ming. Speaking
on behalf of a contingent of several thousand DPP supporters
at the rally, DPP Legislator Trong Chai charged that the
opposition parties are selling out Taiwan to China by
boycotting the arms procurement package in the LY Procedure
Committee. DPP elder Shen Fu-hsiung told AIT that a large
number of Taiwanese from abroad attended the rally, many
former WUFI comrades from Shen's twenty years in the U.S.
(Shen was a U.S. citizen and M.D. before returning to Taiwan
in 1986 to take up the DPP independence cause). Unlike Shen
himself, however, who said he had moderated his views over
the ensuing two decades in order to deal with the "reality"
of Taiwan Blue-Green politics and cross-Strait situation, the
overseas Taiwanese had not changed and still lived in the
rarified world of overseas Taiwanese politics, meaning total
commitment to independence.


3. (C) In a television interview, Premier Frank Hsieh
charged that the opposition parities are trying to weaken
Taiwan by boycotting the government's defense budget, and he
warned that the majority in the LY may sell Taiwan out to
China. (Comment: The fact that Hsieh made this accusation
on a "pro-Green," or independence-leaning, station suggests
he was seeking to encourage the faithful of government
support rather than to speak to the Blue opposition. End
Comment.) Meeting with Taiwan reporters during his visit to
the Dominican Republic on September 25, President Chen
Shui-bian criticized the opposition parties for boycotting
the package. Chen pointed to opposition People First Party
(PFP) Chairman James Soong as the main obstacle blocking the
package from being reviewed on the legislative floor. PFP
Vice Chairman Chang Chao-hsiung clailmed to reporters that
KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou has softened his stance and is
trying to persuade PFP lawmakers to agree to at least move
the arms procurement package to the LY floor for formal
discussion. Chang threatened to discipline any PFP member
who supports this effort. KMT Policy Committee Executive
Director Tseng Yung-chuan and Legislator Su Chi publicly
denied Chang's allegations, insisting the KMT has not decided
whether to support the arms package. However, Su added, the
KMT definitely will not support procurement of PAC-III
missiles because they had been "vetoed" by voters in a March
2004 referendum. Chairman Ma echoed the referendum argument
to the media, adding that it is President Chen and the DPP
that do not attach importance to the arms procurement project
as evidenced by the three years that passed between President
Bush's approval of the Special Budget package and the DPP
government's submission of the bill to the LY.


4. (C) Comment. The September 25 pro-Defense Special Budget
march and rally, along with the smaller opposition
demonstration, appear only to have further politicized the
Special Budget issue. Support for and opposition to the
Defense Special Budget has already become a political
shibboleth defining Green-Blue opposition. Saturday's
rallies make this polar opposition even more difficult to
overcome. The only signs to date of possible breaks in the
legislative logjam are various statements by KMT leaders,
including Chairman Ma LY Speaker Wang Jin-pyng, that they
might be willing to support moving the Special Budget on to
the LY floor for discussion. This, however, would constitute
only a first step in the legislative process with no hint of
further support, and with several LY pressure points at which
any dissenting political party could put an automatic
four-month hold on further deliberation, bringing the LY into
its Spring session. End Comment.
KEEGAN