RULING DPP PESSIMISTIC ON DECEMBER ELECTIONS:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003952

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2015
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: RULING DPP PESSIMISTIC ON DECEMBER ELECTIONS:
CAUTIOUS REALISM OR JUST POLITICS?

REF: A. TAIPEI 3804


B. TAIPEI 3793

Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason(s):
1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary. Leaders of the ruling Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) have been expressing pessimism about
the party's prospects in Taiwan's December local elections.
KMT operatives, on the other hand, have let it be known they
are confident the party will do well in December. Though DPP
leaders insist they are "genuinely worried, and their
pessimism is not a "campaign tactic," a similar pairing of
DPP low expectations and KMT overconfidence before the past
two presidential elections, the 2001 LY election, and the May
14, 2005, National Assembly election ended in DPP victory.
KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou, who predicted KMT victory before
the May 14 election, has been noticeably more circumspect
this go-round, but how he plays the psychological dynamics of
the election will be a bellwether of his own leadership style
and capabilities in the run up to the 2007 legislative and
2008 presidential elections. End Summary.

DPP Down in the Dumps
--------------


2. (C) Taiwan media have been reporting that DPP leaders are
cautious, even pessimistic, regarding the party's chances in
the December 3 city mayor/county magistrate elections. When
AIT asked DPP Deputy Secretary General Yan Wan-chin about
these reports on September 20, he confirmed that party
leaders are "very concerned" about the party's elections
prospects. Yan did acknowledge that DPP negativism before
the May 14 National Assembly election may have played a
strategic part in the DPP victory in that election, but he
insisted DPP leaders really are "genuinely worried" and not
"playing politics." This negative DPP assessment, he
explained, is based on a realistic assessment of current
political realities, notably the rise of KMT Chairman and
Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou, and on internal DPP public opinion
polls.


3. (C) Contrary to the public optimism voiced by some DPP
candidates, Yan said, internal DPP public opinion polls
indicate the party is in trouble. He dismissed DPP Taichung
mayoral candidate Lin Chia-lung's public optimism (Ref A),
telling AIT that internal DPP polls showed Lin with little or
no chance of beating incumbent KMT Mayor Jason Hu. Yan
explained that people are upset with President Chen and have
a low opinion of the DPP and the DPP government. A series of
scandals involving special treatment for the President, the
Kaohsiung MTR, and protests by Thai laborers have hurt the
ruling party, Yan insisted. (Note: DPP elder and Control
Yuan President Yao Chia-wen separately told AIT that support
for the DPP island-wide had declined, but the "deep Green"
Yao attributed this decline to Chen's departure from DPP
independence principles, in contrast to the reasons given by
the more moderate New Tider, Yan Wan-chin. End Note.) While
the DPP's "One Queen and Three Kings" (Vice President Annette
Lu, Premier Frank Hsieh, Presidential Secretary General Yu
Shyi-kun, and DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang) will campaign for
DPP candidates this Fall, Yan told AIT, they will do so
independently, will not coordinate with Party central or each
other, and will push their own 2008-related agendas.


4. (C) The DPP, Yan told AIT, is placing its hopes on three
counties -- Taipei, Yunlin, and Penghu. Ilan County is a
dead heat. Yan expressed optimism only regarding the
all-important Taipei County magistrate election, telling AIT
that internal DPP polls have shown DPP candidate Lo Wen-jia
steadily ahead of KMT candidate Chou Hsi-wei from the outset,
in contrast to other polling organizations that have shown Lo
pulling from behind only in the past week to pass Chou. Yan
dismissed candidate Chou's pledge the previous day to rent
out the Magistrate's office and relocate to a trailer in
order to both save money and stay in touch with voters.
Taipei County voters, Yan scoffed, are too sophisticated to
fall for such political games, and besides it would probably
be illegal.

How DPP Deals with Electoral Pessimism
--------------


5. (C) Yan told AIT that the DPP is planning a vigorous
campaign to overcome this pessimistic assessment. First, the
party will make an "early announcement" of its nominees next
week, he said, to get a jump-start on campaigning. Second,
the DPP will launch a vigorous "negative campaign" against
the KMT, targeting both Taipei Mayor and KMT Chairman Ma
Ying-jeou and Taipei City. The DPP will highlight the
excessive funding Taipei City receives from the central
government in order to tap into both Taipei County
resentments and island-wide indignation at Taipei City's
preferential treatment. In response to AIT's comment that
this "excessive funding" came from the Executive Yuan (EY)
run by the ruling DPP, Yan responded that such details do not
matter during the heat of a campaign.

PM Hsieh on the Presidential Skids?
--------------


6. (C) The December local city mayor/county magistrate
elections, Yan told AIT, could have a profound impact on the
party's 2008 presidential nomination and prospects. PM
Hsieh's premiership and his presidential prospects, Yan
continued, have been seriously damaged by the gridlock that
has hobbled the government since Hsieh took office in January

2005. This leaves DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang as the most
viable DPP presidential candidate at this still early date,
Yan argued, since Vice President Annette Lu and Presidential
Secretary General Yu Shyi-kun have "absolutely no chance."

SIPDIS
Explaining that his own DPP New Tide faction strongly
supports Su and opposes Hsieh (the latter "on purely personal
grounds," Yan acknowledged),Yan queried AIT about Su's
performance during his visit to Washington earlier this
Summer -- how well did Su convey himself in Washington and
how did Americans respond to him? There is one major
obstacle to a Su 2008 nomination, Yan explained: the
December 2005 local elections, loss of which would severely
damage Su's presidential prospects. (Comment: Yan has his
own ax to grind here as a member of the New Tide faction;
until the Kaohsiung transit scandal reported Ref B, we had
been hearing pretty much the exact opposite -- that Hsieh was
receiving credit both within the DPP and among Taiwan voters
for reaching out to the "Pan-Blue" opposition. End Comment.)

Comment: Been There, Deja Vu
--------------


7. (C) DPP leaders may be "genuinely worried" about the
party's prospects on December 3, as Yan insisted.
Nevertheless, the emerging scenario of DPP pessimism and KMT
confidence is eerily reminiscent of previous elections, when
DPP leaders expressed pessimism and KMT leaders, Mayor Ma in
particular, proclaimed confidence in winning. DPP pessimism
served to mobilize supporters and KMT optimism kept
supporters at home. Though they express surprise at the very
idea, DPP leaders are certainly aware of the electoral
effectiveness of pessimism and may be employing it once again
for the December local elections.
KEEGAN