SEPTEMBER 25 RALLY IN TAIPEI TO DEFEND TAIWAN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 003947

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR TW
SUBJECT: SEPTEMBER 25 RALLY IN TAIPEI TO DEFEND TAIWAN,
PASS THE DEFENSE SPECIAL BUDGET, AND CHANGE NAME


Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason(s):
1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary. A group of pro-independence organizations
plan a march and rally on Sunday, September 25, to
"Strengthen National Defense and Defend Taiwan." The stated
purpose of the rally is to demand the Legislative Yuan (LY)
pass the long-delayed Defense Procurement Special Budget. In
the course of the rally and march, organizers plan to raise
the politically sensitive "constitutional reform" and "name
change" slogans. The highly visible identification of
pro-independence organizations and themes with the Defense
Special Budget will likely further complicate chances of the
latter's passage. End Summary.


2. (SBU) The "Hand-in-Hand to Protect Taiwan Grand
Alliance," composed of a who's who of pro-independence
leaders and organizations, has announced it will hold a march
in Taipei on Sunday, September 25, in conjunction with the
Fifth World Taiwanese Congress (Shijie Taiwanren Dahui). The
stated goal of the march is to build public support for the
Legislative Yuan (LY) to pass the Defense Procurement Special
Budget, a USD 11.6 billion package of defensive weapons
systems the U.S. has agreed to sell to Taiwan, in order to
strengthen Taiwan's defense. An Alliance staffer told AIT
that organizers expect around 50,000 people to march Sunday.
The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) announced it
will mobilize 10,000 supporters to join the march, which will
start at 3:00 p.m. at the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall and
end on nearby Ketagalan Boulevard, the broad street/square in
front of the Presidential Palace, where former President Lee
Teng-hui is scheduled to speak.


3. (U) Speaking at a press conference in Taipei on September
8, former President Lee called on the people of Taiwan to
join the parade and protest opposition parties' continuing
blockage of the Defense Special Budget in the LY. This would
also demonstrate their commitment to oppose a PRC invasion of
Taiwan. Lee also called for drafting a new constitution and
changing the country's official name.


4. (C) A day-long conference at the Grand Hotel the
preceding day, Saturday, will feature speeches and workshops.
Former President Lee was scheduled to give the keynote
address Saturday morning but had to cancel, DPP elder and
Control Yuan President Yao Chia-wen told AIT, because of
severe back pain. Lee requested the strongly
pro-independence Yao to speak in his stead. The conference
and march are, Yao explained, an effort to get the DPP back
on track. He lamented the declining popularity of the party
that he helped found and earlier served as Chairman, a
decline which he attributed to DPP President Chen Shui-bian's
departure from the founding principles of the DPP, including
recognition of Taiwan separate identity and independence. A
new constitution and name change, Yao said, were essential to
get the DPP and Taiwan back on the right track.


5. (C) Comment. This high profile attempt to identify the
Defense Procurement Special Budget with pro-independence
themes can only further complicate chances the Special Budget
or any of its constituent elements will ever see the LY
floor. While it is impossible to predict the crowd the rally
will draw, it is clearly a lose-lose situation for the
defense procurement budget. Pan-Blue opponents will claim a
small turn-out proves the budget lacks popular support; they
will alternatively claim a large turn-out proves that a
stronger defense will encourage pro-independence forces and
increase cross-Strait tensions. End Comment.
KEEGAN