THE 2006 KAOHSIUNG MAYORAL RACE -- LOCAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003891

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W, INR/EAP. EAP/PD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR TW
SUBJECT: THE 2006 KAOHSIUNG MAYORAL RACE -- LOCAL
SPECULATION ON CANDIDATES

REF: TAIPEI 3793

Classified By: AIT Acting Director David Keegan, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. THE SEPTEMBER 15TH ARRIVAL OF KAOHSIUNG'S
NEW ACTING MAYOR YEH CHU-LAN, SENIOR PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR AND
FORMER VICE-PREMIER, HAS FUELED LOCAL SPECULATION ON THE 2006
KAOHSIUNG MAYORAL RACE. LOCAL KAOHSIUNG POLITICIANS REACTED
TO YEH'S APPOINTMENT WITH EVERYTHING FROM SURPRISE TO OUTRAGE
TO INDIFFERENCE TO SUPPORT. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) YEH CHU-LAN ARRIVED IN KAOHSIUNG ON THE MORNING OF
SEPTEMBER 15, 2005, ACCOMPANIED BY HER GOOD FRIEND LY MEMBER
GUAN BI-LING (DPP). IN A MEETING THE SAME DAY WITH AIT/K AND
AIT/T, GUAN SAID YEH'S APPOINTMENT WAS MADE BY PRESIDENT CHEN
FOLLOWING A COMPROMISE WITH DPP FACTIONS. GUAN BELIEVES YEH
IS RIGHT FOR THE JOB BECAUSE SHE IS A SOPHISTICATED
POLITICIAN AND FLEXIBLE ENOUGH FOR THE PEOPLE TO ACCEPT HER.
GUAN HAD SPENT THE MORNING BEFORE HER MEETING WITH AIT
INTRODUCING YEH AROUND TOWN TO IMPORTANT CONTACTS. HOWEVER,
GUAN NOTED, THE CITY COUNCIL'S VICE SPEAKER, TSAI
SUNG-HSIUNG, A KMT SUPPORTER, HAD SLAMMED THE DOOR IN YEH'S
FACE, REFUSING EVEN TO SPEAK TO HER, SUPPOSEDLY DUE TO
DISPLEASURE THAT A DPP OUTSIDER HAD BEEN BROUGHT IN, WITHOUT
ANY CONSULTATION WITH THE CITY COUNCIL, AT A DELICATE TIME TO
DEAL WITH, AND LIKELY DOWNPLAY, ISSUES OF CORRUPTION.
ALTHOUGH SEVERAL FORMER CHEN CHI-MAI APPOINTEES HAD TENDERED
THEIR RESIGNATIONS, GUAN TOLD AIT THAT YEH HAD ASKED VICE
MAYOR CHENG WEN-LUNG TO STAY ON. CHENG HAD WORKED PREVIOUSLY
WITH YEH WHEN SHE SERVED AS MINISTER OF TRANSPORTATION AND
COMMUNICATIONS.


3. (C) GUAN BI-LING NOTED THAT, ALTHOUGH YEH IS NOT EXPECTED
TO RUN FOR KAOHSIUNG MAYOR IN 2006, WITH A FULL YEAR BEFORE
THE ELECTION, THERE IS NO TELLING WHAT MAY HAPPEN. GUAN
PRAISED HER OWN PARTY'S "MATURE SYSTEM" THAT DECIDES UPON
NOMINEES, BUT SAID THAT A PRIMARY MAY BE NEEDED IF A
COMPROMISE CANNOT BE REACHED. WITH CHEN CHI-MAI'S
RESIGNATION, GUAN BELIEVES ALL POSSIBLE CANDIDATES, INCLUDING
CHEN CHI-MAI, CHEN CHU, AND YEH CHU-LAN ARE NOW ON A LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD. HOWEVER, SHE BELIEVES THE THAI LABOR RIOT
HURT CHEN CHI-MAI TO THE DEGREE THAT CHEN CHU IS NOW IN A
MORE FAVORABLE POSITION THAN THE PREVIOUS ACTING MAYOR TO
SECURE THE MAYORAL NOMINATION.


4. (C) WHEN ASKED IF SHE HERSELF WOULD RUN FOR MAYOR, GUAN
NOTED THAT SHE IS CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH PREMIER HSIEH
CHANG-TING. IF SHE WERE TO RUN FOR MAYOR, IT WOULD CAUSE
DISSATISFACTION AMONG PAN-GREEN FACTIONS AND POSSIBLY AFFECT
HSIEH AS HE SEEKS SUPPORT FOR THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL BID.
GUAN, A FORMER ACADEMIC JUST NEWLY ELECTED TO THE LY IN
2004, SEES HERSELF AS WOEFULLY SHY OF THE GRASSROOTS SUPPORT
NEEDED TO RUN A SUCCESSFUL CAMPAIGN FOR KAOHSIUNG MAYOR.
ALSO, SHE BELIEVES THAT THE THAI LABOR RIOTS SIGNIFICANTLY
AFFECTED GRASSROOTS SUPPORT FOR HSIEH. SINCE THE DPP DID NOT
COME TOGETHER TO DEFEND ITSELF OR ITS ADMINISTRATION,
SUSPICIONS OF CORRUPTION KEPT GROWING. SHE BELIEVES THAT IF
DPP CHAIRMAN SU TSENG-CHANG AND OTHER DPP HEAVYWEIGHTS HAD
DEFENDED HSIEH IN PUBLIC THE POLITICAL WAVES WOULDN'T HAVE
EXTENDED SO FAR OR CAUSED SO MUCH DAMAGE. IN FACT, SHE SAYS
THAT ALTHOUGH SHE KNOWS HSIEH WILL BE COMPLETELY EXONERATED
FROM ANY WRONG DOING, SHE STILL IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE
POLITICAL IMPACT OF A DRAWN OUT INVESTIGATION.


5. (C) IN A MEETING THE SAME DAY, KMT LY MEMBER LEE FU-SHING
REFUSED TO EXPRESS ANY OPINION ABOUT YEH'S APPOINTMENT,
SAYING THAT IT WAS A DPP MATTER. LEE HAS LITTLE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE INVESTIGATION INTO THE THAI LABOR RIOTS WILL GO
DEEPLY INTO THE CORRUPTION THAT HE SAID UNDOUBTEDLY EXISTS.
HOWEVER, LEE ADMITTED THAT THE POLITICAL FALL OUT FROM THE
RIOTS (SEE REFTEL) WILL AFFECT DPP'S SUPPORT IN THE SOUTH.
LEE BELIEVES THAT DPP CHAIRMAN SU TSENG-CHANG IS PURPOSEFULLY
SILENT ON THE MATTER AND IS PLEASED THE KMT IS VIGOROUSLY
ATTACKING HSIEH CHANG-TING, WHO WAS THE MAYOR OF KAOHSIUNG
AND HAD BEEN IN CHARGE OF THE RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT DURING
HIS TENURE.


6. (C) ALTHOUGH LEE WOULD NOT SPECULATE ON THE NEXT KMT
MAYORAL CANDIDATE, HE EXPRESSED HIS OWN INTEREST IN RUNNING
FOR THE OFFICE. HE NOTED THAT HE PAID SPECIAL ATTENTION TO
THE URBAN PLANNING ASPECT OF HIS 1995 INTERNATIONAL VISITOR
TRIP TO THE U.S. AND HAS BEEN THINKING FOR YEARS ABOUT THE
BEST WAY TO DEVELOP KAOHSIUNG CITY. WITH THE RECENT SHAKE-UP
AT CITY HALL, LEE IS WATCHING THE SITUATION UNTIL EARLY NEXT
YEAR WHEN HE WILL DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO SEEK THE KMT
NOMINATION FOR MAYOR. AS A STRONG MA YING-JEOU SUPPORTER
(AND, ACCORDING TO LEE, THE ONLY OPEN SUPPORTER AMONG THE
KMT'S 83 SOUTHERN LEGISLATORS),LEE STRONGLY BELIEVES THE
PEOPLE IN KAOHSIUNG ARE LOOKING FOR REFORM AND ARE HOPING MA
WILL LEAD TAIWAN TO A BETTER FUTURE. HE SAID THAT HE HIMSELF
AND OTHER NATIVE (BEN-TU) PEOPLE OF TAIWAN WILL STAND WITH MA
IN THE NEXT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. HE ANTICIPATES MA WILL
PICK A "BEN-TU" RUNNING MATE, SUCH AS WU DEN-YIH, KMT LY
MEMBER FROM NAN-TOU COUNTY AND FORMER KAOHSIUNG MAYOR, TO
HELP SOLVE MA'S PROBLEM OF BEING A "WAI-SHENG" PERSON.


7. (C) THE DPP KAOHSIUNG COUNTY MAGISTRATE YANG CHIU-HSING
ADMITTED COMPLETE SURPRISE THAT YEH CHU-LAN WAS SELECTED TO
REPLACE FORMER ACTING MAYOR CHEN CHI-MAI. HOWEVER, YANG
PRAISED YEH AS A GOOD AND COMPETENT PERSON WHOSE PRESTIGE
FROM FORMER APPOINTMENTS WOULD SERVE HER WELL IN THE SOUTH.
YANG SERIOUSLY DOUBTS THAT YEH WILL RUN FOR MAYOR AS HE
ANTICIPATES SHE IS A MORE LIKELY CONTENDER FOR THE DPP
VICE-PRESIDENTIAL RACE. THE MAGISTRATE ALSO SEES LITTLE
LIKELIHOOD OF CHEN CHI-MAI RUNNING FOR MAYOR IN THE 2006
RACE. YANG THINKS TOO MANY QUESTIONS WOULD ARISE AS TO WHY
CHEN STEPPED DOWN IF HIS INTENTION WAS JUST TO RUN AGAIN.
ALSO, LOGISTICALLY, YANG NOTED THAT CHEN CHI-MAI WOULD HAVE
TO THROW HIS HAT IN THE RACE NO LATER THAN APRIL 2006 AND
THAT TRYING TO BUILD SUPPORT IN SUCH A SHORT TIME, AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER JUST RESIGNING, MIGHT BE PROBLEMS TOO HARD
TO OVERCOME.


8. (C) COMMENT: YEH CHU-LAN HAS YET TO BE INSTALLED
OFFICIALLY AS KAOHSIUNG'S MAYOR, ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO DOUBT
THAT ALL THAT STANDS BETWEEN HER AND OFFICIAL MEETINGS
BEGINING MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, IS MERELY A MATTER OF
FORMALITIES. AIT/K WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW DEVELOPMENTS AS
THE NEW ACTING MAYOR BEGINS HER TERM OF OFFICE FACING LOCAL
POLITICIANS WHO HAVE NOT PROVED ON THE WHOLE TO BE A
WELCOMING GROUP AND AS THE CORRUPTION ISSUE CONTINUES TO LOOM
LARGE IN BOTH THE PAN-BLUE AND PAN-GREEN CAMPS FOLLOWING THE
THAI LABOR RIOTS. END COMMENT.

KEEGAN
KEEGAN