TAICHUNG CAMPAIGN TRAIL: KMT LOSING ITS GRIP?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003804

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2015
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: TAICHUNG CAMPAIGN TRAIL: KMT LOSING ITS GRIP?

Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason(s):
1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: On August 24, Deputy Director Keegan
traveled to Taichung City to meet with incumbent Taichung
City Mayor Jason Hu, his DPP opponent Lin Chia-lung, and DPP
candidate for Taichung County Commissioner Chiu Tai-san.
Taichung City and County have traditionally been KMT
territory, but DPP candidates are optimistic about their
chances in the December 3 city/county elections there. Even
though he holds a strong early lead in public opinion polls,
Mayor Hu has not ruled out the possibility of a loss to his
younger rival. For his part, Lin Chia-lung promises to be a
more responsive mayor, and to use his access to Chen
Shui-bian's DPP government to bring a mass-transit railway
system to Taichung. Chiu Tai-san told AIT that increasing
divisions between the "Red" and "Black" factions of the KMT
have weakened that party's grip on the county government,
creating a unique opportunity for the DPP. For the DPP,
which has traditionally been stronger in the south, victories
in either Taichung City or Taichung County would be a major
step in its drive to increase voter support in Northern
Taiwan. End Summary.

Mayor Hu Cautiously Confident
--------------


2. (C) Mayor Hu told the Deputy Director that despite his
comfortable lead in the Mayoral race he expects the race to
grow tighter in the final months of the campaign. (Note:
The latest ERA TV poll of August 25 shows Hu leading Lin 48.1
percent to 24.9 percent. End Note.) Representatives of the
DPP government, he surmised, would be coming to Taichung and
promising public works if the DPP candidate wins. Hu said,
moreover, that his opponent's campaign war chest is full, and
that "anything is possible" in the final few months of the
race, including trumped-up scandals. If the KMT loses the
Taichung mayoral race, he mused, it could presage a third
straight presidential loss in 2008.

DPP Mayoral Candidate Won't Back Down
--------------


3. (C) DPP Taichung Mayor candidate Lin Chia-lung is the
former Director (2004-2005) of the Government Information
Office (GIO),the public relations and media regulatory body
of the Taiwan central government. The Taiwan press recently
blamed Lin for the seven-month GIO delay in disbursing to
relief NGOs some NT$400 million (US $13 million) in aid
donations for victims of last December's tsunami. Despite
that setback and his weak polling numbers, Lin told the
Deputy Director, he is optimistic that his youth (41),
experience, and connections to the DPP central government
will convince voters he is the best choice for Mayor.
Incumbent Mayor Hu is 68 years old, he noted, compared to the
average voter age in Taichung of 33. Noting reports that Hu
is in poor health, Lin said he would use his campaign to
highlight his own youth and vitality. Lin's "Healthy
Taichung" campaign ads show him playing volleyball,
basketball, riding a bike, boxing, etc. Lin argued that his
academic and political accomplishments (Yale Ph.D., GIO
Director) already rival Hu's (Oxford Ph.D., Foreign
Minister),even though he is 20 years Hu's junior. But it is
Lin's connections to the DPP government in Taipei that enable
him to promise a Taipei-style mass-transit railway system for
Taichung. According to Lin, the DPP's access to resources
and its ability to deliver are "better than ever." (Comment.
Recent embarrassments in the Kaohsiung metro and high speed
projects may make such promises less appealing. End Comment.)

Magistrate's Race Could Be A Squeaker
--------------


4. (C) Chiu Tai-san is the DPP candidate in the Taichung
County Magistrate race, a position similar to a County
Executive in the US. Chiu told the Deputy Director that
Taichung has long been a KMT stronghold, but enmity between
the local "Red" and "Black" KMT factions has compromised KMT
dominance in the county. Although recent polling puts Chiu
15 points behind his KMT opponent, incumbent Huang
Chung-sheng, Chiu is so confident of the breakdown in KMT
organizational strength in Taichung County that he claims he
has a "50-50" chance of winning. Chiu charged that Huang has
been an ineffective Magistrate, because he has ceded too much
control to local faction leaders in exchange for their
support. Nor will Huang benefit from Chairman Ma's
popularity, argued Chiu, because Ma is a reformer and Huang
represents the "old" KMT.


5. (C) Chiu estimated that 45 percent of Taichung voters are
loyal Pan-Blues, and 35 percent are Pan-Green voters. Chiu,
however, a member of the DPP "New Tide" faction, believes his
clean image will help him attract the lion's share of the
10-15 percent pool of swing voters. Chiu, moreover, has
pledged to connect Taichung's county road system to Taiwan's
island-wide highway system, to lure Taiwan-PRC charter flight
business to Taichung's international airport, and to reverse
the county's budget deficit problem. He told the Deputy
Director that a voter turnout below 70 percent would hinder
his chances, since the majority of these voters would come
from the KMT fixed local base of older voters. A higher
turnout, however, would mean that he had succeeded in getting
swing voters, including younger commuters who work in Taipei,
to vote, which would enable him to win. Thus, Chiu
explained, his strategy at this point is to concentrate on
winning over grass-roots leaders to ensure their mobilization
support come election day. As a Taichung County native,
coming from a KMT family, Chiu has been working to accentuate
Red-Black faction problems and win over KMT voters who no
longer feel bound by old faction loyalties.


6. (C) Comment: It may be that Taichung DPP candidates are
better-positioned, better-funded, and better-connected than
at any time in the past, but Lin and Chiu must overcome
substantial polling deficits with less than 100 days until
the December 3 elections. Lin told AIT that, unlike the KMT,
the DPP candidates in Taichung are "united," and running as
"partners" in an integrated campaign. While Lin's campaign
relies more on image than substance, using advertisements to
play the "age" card against his older, more established
opponent, Chiu is running a more traditional,
boots-on-the-ground strategy, focusing his efforts on the
local leaders he believes can deliver the votes. Both DPP
candidates, however, particularly Taichung City Mayor
candidate Lin Chia-long, will face a steep uphill battle to
catch their KMT incumbent opponents. End Comment.
KEEGAN