TAIPEI AGONIZES OVER RESPONSE TO ANTI-SECESSION LAW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000362

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV TW
SUBJECT: TAIPEI AGONIZES OVER RESPONSE TO ANTI-SECESSION LAW

REF: TAIPEI 266

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Chen administration officials say they fear
that action on the proposed Anti-Secession Law will deal a
major blow to the government's diplomatic, cross-Strait, and
domestic political interests. Concern over the PRC law is
fueled by an internal assessment that the PRC law will
criminalize "Taiwan independence activities," offering
Beijing leverage to harass DPP political and business
supporters. They also express fears that the law will be
dismissed by Taiwan society, the USG, and the international
community as non-threatening. Officials are urging a tough,
but measured, public response, but say they fear that events,
and their own president, could pull the agenda away from
them. AIT has urged caution in Taiwan's public statements at
least until the PRC reveals the contents of the proposed law.
However, officials say that the President may repeat his
January 20 public warning about holding an anti-PRC
referendum in the coming days and weeks if leaders in Beijing
tout plans for the new law in public fora. End Summary.

Taipei's Dilemma
--------------


2. (C) Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Chen
administration officials say they are increasingly concerned
over how the PRC's proposed Anti-Secession Law will impact on
Taipei's domestic, cross-Strait, and international standing.
Officials and Taiwan scholars say they fear the PRC will use
the law to criminalize activities defined by Beijing as
"splittist" (Reftel),a move they claim could isolate the
ruling party from sectors of Taiwan society involved with
business and travel to the Mainland (Comment: some also warn
that PRC allies may even extradite "splittists" at Beijing's
request. End Comment.). DPP Deputy Secretary General Chung
Chia-bing, a member of the party's moderate New Tide faction,
told AIT that the deepest fear within the ruling party is
that the PRC will pass a law that will, over the long run,
undermine Taiwan's de facto independence in such a subtle way
that people in Taiwan and in the international community will
not realize the seriousness of the threat.


3. (C) Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Senior Secretary Jan
Jyh-horng told AIT that Taipei is also concerned that the new
law will push future PRC policy in negative directions. Jan
predicted that the PRC law would be ambiguously worded, but
less so than the current set of PRC cross-Strait policy
guidelines. Jan warned that PRC hard-liners could interpret
Taiwan actions in their own way and demand that policymakers
fulfill the legal requirement to counter "splittist"
activities. Jan added that the recent charter flight
experience shows that flexibility is the only effective means
to advance cross-Strait relations, and any attempt to codify
policy is likely to limit Beijing's future room to maneuver.
"They likely mean to constrain us with the law, but they may
find that they are constraining their own ability to set the
policy agenda," he remarked.

No Good Option
--------------


4. (C) According to the DPP's Chung, the Chen administration
believes the best response to Beijing's moves would be to
mobilize a multi-partisan mass movement to protest the law
modeled on the 2003 demonstrations held in Hong Kong to
protest revisions to Article 23 of the Basic Law. Chung told
AIT that the DPP has asked pro-independence groups not to
lead such an effort. "If the Chen government or independence
activists do something, Beijing, the international community,
and many in Taiwan will dismiss it as more troublemaking by
Taiwan," he added. However, Chung said that thus far, the
DPP has failed to convince Taiwan's public or opposition
parties to mobilize. "They simply do not feel an immediate
threat," he commented, "it is like a frog in a pot being
boiled so slowly it doesn't realize it is being cooked."
(Comment: Chung may be underestimating opposition concern.
KMT Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou has expressed publicly, and
People First Party (PFP) Policy Chief Vincent Chang conveyed
to AIT privately, deep concerns over the implications of
Beijing's plans. End Comment.) Officials also fret that
President Chen's track record of rocking the boat on
cross-Strait relations will make it easy for Beijing to
convince the international community that the Anti-Secession
Law is a harmless document.
Measured Hard-line
--------------


5. (C) DPP officials say they only have limited time to come
up with a solution before pro-independence fundamentalists
use the issue to seize the initiative on cross-Strait policy.
Former President Lee Teng-hui organized a meeting of
pro-independence leaders on January 25 to discuss a plan to
turn ceremonies marking the February 28 anniversary of the
Kaohsiung Incident into a mass rally against Beijing. Lee's
Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) announced on January 27 that it
would sponsor an "Anti-Annexation Law" in the Spring
legislative session. Y.Y. Lee, the DPP's other Deputy
Secretary General and organizer of the million-plus person

SIPDIS
2/28 "Protect Taiwan" rally in 2004, told AIT that the DPP
will inevitably participate in the 2/28 rally, even if it
does not organize it. He predicted that Lee Teng-hui and his
allies could mobilize at least 100,000 people for an
anti-Anti-Secession Law/pro-independence rally without active
DPP logistical support.


6. (C) DPP officials have promised pro-independence activists
the government will make a tough official response in
exchange for a promise to delay their mobilization efforts.
Presidential Office Deputy Secretary General James Huang
explained that President Chen Shui-bian's January 20 warning
(Reftel) about Taiwan enacting an "Anti-Annexation Law" or
holding a referendum to protest Beijing's legislative moves
were meant to warn PRC leaders against crafting a
toughly-worded law. While Huang and NSC officials tell AIT
that no decision has been made over specific policy measures
Taipei may take in response to PRC moves, they say the
president is under pressure to hang tough on the issue.
Huang told AIT on January 27 that Chen may reiterate his
warning about passing a countervailing law or holding an
anti-PRC referendum if senior level PRC officials publicly
raise the Anti-Secession Law. Strait Exchange Foundation
(SEF) Deputy Secretary General Yen Wan-ching, a confidante of
NSC Secretary General Chiou I-jen, told AIT on January 27
that Chiou ordered the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) to
downgrade planned feel-good PR efforts surrounding the launch
of cross-Strait Lunar New Year charter flights so as not to
conflict with a possible high-level public warning from the
president over the Anti-Secession Law. MAC's Jan told AIT
that while MAC is urging restraint, "there are many over at
the Presidential Office who want to hit Beijing hard on the
issue."

Stop Us Before We Provoke Again
--------------


7. (C) Chen administration officials acknowledge to AIT that
Chen's threats and planned actions by pro-independence groups
could create a vicious cycle that will only harden Beijing's
resolve to pass a tough law in March. Huang and other Taiwan
officials say they have been reassured by their recent
exchanges with U.S. counterparts in Washington and Taipei
that the USG does not take the PRC's moves over the
Anti-Secession Law lightly. Huang, MAC's Jan, and SEF's Yen
told AIT on January 27-28 that they would positively convey
AIT's request for caution to President Chen and NSC SecGen
Chiou. Huang told AIT that, at the very least, he would
coordinate with AIT before Chen makes any sharp statements to
the media over the Anti-Secession Law. The DPP's Chung urged
Washington to go a step further and convey to Beijing the
message that its moves over the Anti-Secession Law were
undermining the PRC's own interests. "We have finally moved
the political process back onto a more moderate course," he
added, "but this could derail everything and bring us back to
the counter-productive cycle of the past two years." The
DPP's Lee warned, however, that nothing short of a full
reversal on Beijing's part will prevent the law from
triggering a new cycle of public recriminations. "The
contents don't matter, all they have to do is pass a law with
the words 'Anti-Secession' in it and you will have a strong
push-back from Taiwan," he warned.

Comment: A Closing Window?
--------------


8. (C) Chen administration officials are clearly driven by a
sense of foreboding over what may happen during the coming
three months over the Anti-Secession Law. It is taken as
almost an article of faith among Chen administration
officials that the PRC Law will criminalize "Taiwan
independence activities," broadly defined, giving Beijing a
lever to single out and punish DPP leaders and their business
supporters at a time of their choosing. Many also say they
feel isolated, both internally and internationally, in their
concerns over the PRC law. These two assumptions are driving
the policy process in assertive, and counterproductive,
directions. AIT will continue to urge Taiwan officials to
exercise restraint until it sees the actual contents of the
proposed law. However, with the planned 2/28 rallies in
February, the opening of the National People's Congress (NPC)
in March, and the campaign for Taiwan's National Assembly in
April, the calendar does not lend itself to moderate
discourse.
PAAL