POLITICAL JUJITSU: CAN PFP LEVERAGE KMT IMAGE FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003571 SIPDIS STATE PASS AIT/W E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2015 TAGS: PGOV TW SUBJECT: POLITICAL JUJITSU: CAN PFP LEVERAGE KMT IMAGE FOR NOMINATIONS? REF: A. TAIPEI 3376 ¶B. TAIPEI 3450 ¶C. TAIPEI 3496 Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D). ¶1. (U) Summary: Ma Ying-jeou immediately reached out after his August 19 inauguration as KMT Chairman to urge PFP Chairman James Soong and other former KMT members to come back to the party. At Ma's insistence the KMT removed the party rules barring disciplined or expelled members from serving as party Chairman or from sitting on the Central Standing Committee; Ma has declared "Pan-Blue unity" essential to victory in this year's city/county elections and the 2008 presidential race, and he promised former KMT members a warm homecoming and a respected place in the party. PFP leaders dismissed Ma's gestures as empty talk, arguing that if the KMT sincerely wanted Pan-Blue cooperation, it would agree to let PFP candidates represent the Pan-Blues in five key year-end elections. Newly appointed KMT Secretary-General Chan Chun-po recently met with PFP leaders SIPDIS to begin the discussion of election cooperation possibilities. PFP representatives professed optimism, but the devil will be in the details, which have yet to be ironed out. PFP leaders know they have little leverage, and hope an image-conscious KMT will choose to cooperate with its much weaker ally. End summary. ¶2. (U) During his campaign for KMT Chair, Ma Ying-jeou called for the KMT to work closely with its erstwhile Pan-Blue coalition partner, the People First Party (PFP). Ma also publicly welcomed PFP Chairman James Soong and other former KMT members back into the fold, as part of his "Old Comrades Return Home, New Comrades Join In" policy. Leading up to the KMT's 17th National Congress, Ma proposed striking the KMT rule banning disciplined or expelled KMT members from running for the Central Standing Committee or for KMT Chair. This was widely interpreted as a peace offering to Soong, who was ousted from the KMT by Lien Chan, after Soong chose to run as an independent against Lien in the 2000 presidential race. The rule change passed the KMT National Congress on August ¶19. During his Chairman acceptance speech, Ma promised to gradually integrate the PFP back into the KMT, beginning with Pan-Blue cooperation on policy matters, legislation, and elections. Ma declared his first order of business as Chairman was to assure a KMT victory in this December's city mayor and county magistrate elections, which, he acknowledged, would not be possible without PFP cooperation. ¶3. (C) On August 16, PFP Deputy Director of Public and Cultural Affairs Liao Wen-chang told AIT that he doubted Ma's sincerity, because, despite Ma's repeated calls to reintegrate the two parties, no one from the KMT had thus far contacted the PFP to discuss a process to do so. No one, he said, had even approached the PFP to discuss Pan-Blue cooperation in advance of this December's city mayor and county magistrate elections. Liao alleged that Ma's calls for reunification are actually a cynical attempt to further marginalize the PFP by convincing Pan-Blue voters that the PFP is responsible for fracturing the Pan-Blue unity that is so critical to success not only this December, but also in ¶2008. Rhetorically, Liao asked why the KMT didn't offer to unify with the PFP in 2000, when the PFP was strong. Now, when the PFP is weak and getting weaker, Liao said many PFP members are insulted by, and not appreciative of, Ma's offer to welcome them back into the KMT. Liao said Ma must first demonstrate his good faith, by meeting directly with the PFP leadership to discuss plans for inter-party cooperation. That plan must yield tangible benefits for the PFP; namely, the KMT must be willing to yield five or six key elections in December to PFP candidates. If the KMT is unwilling to do that, Liao said, it would be "all out war," since the PFP would be fighting for its very survival. ¶4. (C) On August 18, PFP LY member Hwang Yi-jiau told AIT that his recent election to the PFP Caucus Leader position revealed a deep divide among those PFP members who favor returning to the KMT and those, including Hwang, who remain loyal to Chairman Soong. Hwang's Caucus Leader opponent was Lin Yu-fang, perhaps the PFP's most outspoken supporter of PFP-KMT reunification. A vote of thirty of the PFP's thirty-four LY members resulted in a 15-15 tie. In the weeks before the vote, Soong lobbied heavily for Hwang, and ultimately cast the tie-breaking vote for Hwang. Hwang said Lin now "holds a grudge against Soong" for favoring Hwang. After his loss, Lin announced publicly that he has not ruled out rejoining the KMT. Hwang said Lin's threat to defect is merely a ploy to get control of the PFP's Arms Committee -- Lin knows his status within the KMT would be very low, and he would lose the high media profile and the authority he enjoys as a senior PFP member. Hwang also said Pan-Blue voters question the loyalty and integrity of politicians who switch parties. Lin too would likely suffer this "defector's Achilles heel," and would not be a viable KMT candidate for some time, especially since the number of candidates will be halved in the next LY election. ¶5. (C) Hwang argued that Ma needs the PFP in order to retake the presidency in 2008, because Taiwan voters are split almost 50-50 between Pan-Blue and Pan-Green. Hwang predicted the PFP could deliver (or withhold) at least 200,000 votes, well in excess of the 23,000 votes which decided the 2004 presidential election. (Comment: This glib suggestion that PFP support will put a Blue candidate over the top in 2008 ignores the reality that the Blue lost in 2004, even with the PFP Chairman on the ticket. End Comment.) However, Hwang said, many PFP members consider Ma's recent push to absorb the PFP as a "hostile takeover." In order to dispel that resentment, and to establish its good faith, Hwang said, the KMT must agree to run PFP candidates in five of the twenty-three December city/county elections: the Keelung mayoral race, and the county magistrate races in Hualien, Lienchiang, Miaoli, and Changhua. Hwang stressed that the PFP distrusts polls, and will reject any KMT proposal to use that method to decide the best Pan-Blue candidates. The PFP simply wants the KMT to "reserve" these five races for PFP candidates. Hwang hopes the KMT will cooperate, but acknowledged the PFP does not have the financial resources or the candidates to oppose the KMT in all 23 races, should the KMT refuse to cooperate. ¶6. (C) On August 23, the new KMT Secretary General (and former Ma campaign manager) Chan Chun-po led a delegation to the PFP to discuss improving relations between the parties in advance of the December city and county elections. The China Post reported that the parties, after a forty-minute meeting, reached a tentative agreement to cooperate in the upcoming elections. A KMT participant reportedly repeated Ma's invitation to meet with PFP Chairman James Soong upon Soong's return to Taiwan from the US. Both the KMT and PFP participants reportedly expressed optimism about prospects for improved relations under Chairman Ma's leadership, but final details on election cooperation must wait until PFP Secretary General Chin Chin-sheng returns from a visit to SIPDIS Mainland China. ¶7. (C) Comment: Before being sworn in as KMT Chairman, Ma could not communicate directly with PFP leadership without violating KMT protocol; moreover, with James Soong in the US, the two men could not meet, and the PFP will not make any moves until they do. After his swearing-in, Ma wasted little time in opening up direct communication with the PFP, as he had promised during the Chairman campaign. Unfortunately, Ma and other KMT leaders' repeated public calls for KMT-PFP reunification have fed a wellspring of resentment and distrust within the PFP. The KMT has enjoyed an increase in popularity in recent public opinion polls, in large part due to "democratizing" efforts like the contested Chairman race and the National Party Congress's direct election of the Central Standing Committee. While Pan-Blue supporters want, and would support a KMT-PFP coordinated election strategy, trying to force KMT hopefuls to step aside for PFP candidates could strain KMT party discipline to the breaking point. Realizing their limited power, PFP leaders are forced to hope Ma will be able to convince the KMT that giving away a few nominations is worth perpetuating the image of an increasingly democratic KMT, maybe securing the PFP's 2008 cooperation in the bargain. End comment. PAAL