POLITICAL JUJITSU: CAN PFP LEVERAGE KMT IMAGE FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003571

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2015
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: POLITICAL JUJITSU: CAN PFP LEVERAGE KMT IMAGE FOR
NOMINATIONS?

REF: A. TAIPEI 3376

B. TAIPEI 3450

C. TAIPEI 3496

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (U) Summary: Ma Ying-jeou immediately reached out after
his August 19 inauguration as KMT Chairman to urge PFP
Chairman James Soong and other former KMT members to come
back to the party. At Ma's insistence the KMT removed the
party rules barring disciplined or expelled members from
serving as party Chairman or from sitting on the Central
Standing Committee; Ma has declared "Pan-Blue unity"
essential to victory in this year's city/county elections and
the 2008 presidential race, and he promised former KMT
members a warm homecoming and a respected place in the party.
PFP leaders dismissed Ma's gestures as empty talk, arguing
that if the KMT sincerely wanted Pan-Blue cooperation, it
would agree to let PFP candidates represent the Pan-Blues in
five key year-end elections. Newly appointed KMT
Secretary-General Chan Chun-po recently met with PFP leaders

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to begin the discussion of election cooperation
possibilities. PFP representatives professed optimism, but
the devil will be in the details, which have yet to be ironed
out. PFP leaders know they have little leverage, and hope an
image-conscious KMT will choose to cooperate with its much
weaker ally. End summary.


2. (U) During his campaign for KMT Chair, Ma Ying-jeou called
for the KMT to work closely with its erstwhile Pan-Blue
coalition partner, the People First Party (PFP). Ma also
publicly welcomed PFP Chairman James Soong and other former
KMT members back into the fold, as part of his "Old Comrades
Return Home, New Comrades Join In" policy. Leading up to the
KMT's 17th National Congress, Ma proposed striking the KMT
rule banning disciplined or expelled KMT members from running
for the Central Standing Committee or for KMT Chair. This
was widely interpreted as a peace offering to Soong, who was
ousted from the KMT by Lien Chan, after Soong chose to run as
an independent against Lien in the 2000 presidential race.
The rule change passed the KMT National Congress on August

19. During his Chairman acceptance speech, Ma promised to
gradually integrate the PFP back into the KMT, beginning with
Pan-Blue cooperation on policy matters, legislation, and
elections. Ma declared his first order of business as
Chairman was to assure a KMT victory in this December's city
mayor and county magistrate elections, which, he
acknowledged, would not be possible without PFP cooperation.


3. (C) On August 16, PFP Deputy Director of Public and
Cultural Affairs Liao Wen-chang told AIT that he doubted Ma's
sincerity, because, despite Ma's repeated calls to
reintegrate the two parties, no one from the KMT had thus far
contacted the PFP to discuss a process to do so. No one, he
said, had even approached the PFP to discuss Pan-Blue
cooperation in advance of this December's city mayor and
county magistrate elections. Liao alleged that Ma's calls
for reunification are actually a cynical attempt to further
marginalize the PFP by convincing Pan-Blue voters that the
PFP is responsible for fracturing the Pan-Blue unity that is
so critical to success not only this December, but also in

2008. Rhetorically, Liao asked why the KMT didn't offer to
unify with the PFP in 2000, when the PFP was strong. Now,
when the PFP is weak and getting weaker, Liao said many PFP
members are insulted by, and not appreciative of, Ma's offer
to welcome them back into the KMT. Liao said Ma must first
demonstrate his good faith, by meeting directly with the PFP
leadership to discuss plans for inter-party cooperation.
That plan must yield tangible benefits for the PFP; namely,
the KMT must be willing to yield five or six key elections in
December to PFP candidates. If the KMT is unwilling to do
that, Liao said, it would be "all out war," since the PFP
would be fighting for its very survival.


4. (C) On August 18, PFP LY member Hwang Yi-jiau told AIT
that his recent election to the PFP Caucus Leader position
revealed a deep divide among those PFP members who favor
returning to the KMT and those, including Hwang, who remain
loyal to Chairman Soong. Hwang's Caucus Leader opponent was
Lin Yu-fang, perhaps the PFP's most outspoken supporter of
PFP-KMT reunification. A vote of thirty of the PFP's
thirty-four LY members resulted in a 15-15 tie. In the weeks
before the vote, Soong lobbied heavily for Hwang, and
ultimately cast the tie-breaking vote for Hwang. Hwang said
Lin now "holds a grudge against Soong" for favoring Hwang.
After his loss, Lin announced publicly that he has not ruled
out rejoining the KMT. Hwang said Lin's threat to defect is
merely a ploy to get control of the PFP's Arms Committee --
Lin knows his status within the KMT would be very low, and he
would lose the high media profile and the authority he enjoys
as a senior PFP member. Hwang also said Pan-Blue voters
question the loyalty and integrity of politicians who switch
parties. Lin too would likely suffer this "defector's
Achilles heel," and would not be a viable KMT candidate for
some time, especially since the number of candidates will be
halved in the next LY election.


5. (C) Hwang argued that Ma needs the PFP in order to retake
the presidency in 2008, because Taiwan voters are split
almost 50-50 between Pan-Blue and Pan-Green. Hwang predicted
the PFP could deliver (or withhold) at least 200,000 votes,
well in excess of the 23,000 votes which decided the 2004
presidential election. (Comment: This glib suggestion that
PFP support will put a Blue candidate over the top in 2008
ignores the reality that the Blue lost in 2004, even with the
PFP Chairman on the ticket. End Comment.) However, Hwang
said, many PFP members consider Ma's recent push to absorb
the PFP as a "hostile takeover." In order to dispel that
resentment, and to establish its good faith, Hwang said, the
KMT must agree to run PFP candidates in five of the
twenty-three December city/county elections: the Keelung
mayoral race, and the county magistrate races in Hualien,
Lienchiang, Miaoli, and Changhua. Hwang stressed that the
PFP distrusts polls, and will reject any KMT proposal to use
that method to decide the best Pan-Blue candidates. The PFP
simply wants the KMT to "reserve" these five races for PFP
candidates. Hwang hopes the KMT will cooperate, but
acknowledged the PFP does not have the financial resources or
the candidates to oppose the KMT in all 23 races, should the
KMT refuse to cooperate.


6. (C) On August 23, the new KMT Secretary General (and
former Ma campaign manager) Chan Chun-po led a delegation to
the PFP to discuss improving relations between the parties in
advance of the December city and county elections. The China
Post reported that the parties, after a forty-minute meeting,
reached a tentative agreement to cooperate in the upcoming
elections. A KMT participant reportedly repeated Ma's
invitation to meet with PFP Chairman James Soong upon Soong's
return to Taiwan from the US. Both the KMT and PFP
participants reportedly expressed optimism about prospects
for improved relations under Chairman Ma's leadership, but
final details on election cooperation must wait until PFP
Secretary General Chin Chin-sheng returns from a visit to

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Mainland China.


7. (C) Comment: Before being sworn in as KMT Chairman, Ma
could not communicate directly with PFP leadership without
violating KMT protocol; moreover, with James Soong in the US,
the two men could not meet, and the PFP will not make any
moves until they do. After his swearing-in, Ma wasted little
time in opening up direct communication with the PFP, as he
had promised during the Chairman campaign. Unfortunately, Ma
and other KMT leaders' repeated public calls for KMT-PFP
reunification have fed a wellspring of resentment and
distrust within the PFP. The KMT has enjoyed an increase in
popularity in recent public opinion polls, in large part due
to "democratizing" efforts like the contested Chairman race
and the National Party Congress's direct election of the
Central Standing Committee. While Pan-Blue supporters want,
and would support a KMT-PFP coordinated election strategy,
trying to force KMT hopefuls to step aside for PFP candidates
could strain KMT party discipline to the breaking point.
Realizing their limited power, PFP leaders are forced to hope
Ma will be able to convince the KMT that giving away a few
nominations is worth perpetuating the image of an
increasingly democratic KMT, maybe securing the PFP's 2008
cooperation in the bargain. End comment.
PAAL