DPP'S SOONG STRATEGY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000344

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV TW
SUBJECT: DPP'S SOONG STRATEGY

REF: TAIPEI 312

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Senior Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
officials say they will continue contacts with People First
Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong as part of an effort to
divide and demoralize the Pan-Blue coalition. DPP
strategists believe that the DPP and Soong share a number of
short-term objectives, including protecting the PFP from a
forced merger with the KMT and derailing any attempt by
Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou to take over as KMT Chairman. In
exchange for boosting Soong's profile, the DPP administration
hopes the PFP will cooperate on the Special Defense
Procurement Budget and other major legislation during the
Spring Legislative Yuan (LY) session. However, they
acknowledge that Soong's room for maneuver is limited by his
support base's hostility to the DPP administration. While
the DPP plans to keep up back channel contacts with Soong, it
is also reaching out to disaffected KMT members to undermine
the PFP's attempts to secure the LY Vice Speaker position.
The DPP has succeeded in keeping the Pan-Blue off balance,
but its manipulations may cost the new Hsieh cabinet a
measure of goodwill in the upcoming LY session. End Summary.

Denial and Deception
--------------


2. (C) DPP officials say they will continue to maintain back
channel communications with PFP Chairman James Soong over
possible tactical cooperation despite recent public
affirmations of renewed Pan-Blue cooperation. DPP political
strategist and Executive Yuan (EY) Research, Development, and
Evaluation Council (RDEC) Vice Minister Chen Chun-lin told
AIT that the ruling party decided shortly after the December
11 LY election that engaging Soong would help dampen Pan-Blue
momentum coming out of the election. "We wanted to exploit
the high level of mistrust within the Pan-Blue to ensure we
didn't have to face a united and energized LY majority," he
added. Chen and other officials say the DPP administration
also plans to maintain contacts with Soong to secure specific
policy and political objectives. Chen Shui-bian confidante
and Hakka Affairs Council (HAC) Minister Luo Wen-chia told
AIT that the main channel of communications runs directly to
Soong via the president's immediate political advisors
(Comment: likely to mean Presidential Office Secretary Ma
Yung-chen. End Comment.).


3. (C) Presidential Office Deputy Secretary General James
Huang told AIT that the Chen administration's stated goal for
reaching out to Soong is to secure a working majority in the
LY to pass major legislation. Huang noted that Soong's
recent remarks on the Special Defense Procurement Budget
suggest that he is willing to soften the PFP's pre-election
stance against LY action on the budget. Huang added that the
president still hopes that Soong will accept his offer to
chair the "Cross-Strait Peace and Stability Committee."


4. (C) DPP Deputy Secretary General Y.Y. Lee told AIT that
the likelihood of Soong chairing the cross-Strait committee
was not as remote as it might appear at first glance. "His
party may abandon him at some point," Lee remarked, "so he'll
need some sort of platform to keep his political career alive
through 2008." Lee predicted that Soong would not accept any
position in the near-term. "Given their (PFP supporters)
current frame of mind," Lee added, "Soong would be pelted
with eggs if he took a job with the DPP." Chung Chia-bing,
the DPP's other Deputy Secretary General, emphasized the
point that the government's target is Soong, not the PFP as a
party. Chung noted that in the future, there will inevitably
be a growing divergence between PFP politicians, who need to
focus on their own political future, and their charismatic
leader. PFP Policy Chief Vincent Chang (Hsien-yao),a
long-time Soong loyalist, told AIT that Soong does not rule
out taking the cross-Strait post at some point in the future
if the DPP were to offer policy concessions in return.

Unholy Alliance
--------------


5. (C) The EY's Chen commented that DPP efforts to boost
Soong's standing may even help him stay within the Pan-Blue
tent, an outcome that would also serve DPP long-term
interests. "We share the common goal with Soong, (LY
Speaker) Wang Jin-pyng, and (KMT Chairman) Lien Chan in
seeing that (popular Taipei Mayor) Ma Ying-jeou does not
become KMT Chairman in August," Chen asserted. Chen added,
"if we're lucky, Soong will cut a deal with Lien and Wang to
come back as KMT Chair, where he could really ruin Ma's
chances for 2008."

Divide and Conquer
--------------


6. (C) DPP officials say that despite their ongoing efforts
to woo Soong, and build a working relationship with the new
Pan-Blue LY majority, they will continue to play the KMT and
PFP against each other at every opportunity. The DPP's Lee
confirmed reports that the DPP was reaching out to anti-PFP
members of the KMT LY Caucus to break ranks in the vote over
the early February vote on the Pan-Blue's joint LY
Speaker/Vice Speaker ticket. The effort appeared to pay off
on January 27, when the PFP delivered an ultimatum to the KMT
that it either enforce party discipline on the Chung election
or face a defection by PFP Members in the vote to re-elect of
LY Speaker Wang.

Comment: A Perishable Resource
--------------


7. (C) While Soong's flirtation with the DPP has helped both
sides undermine KMT morale in the wake of the party's
surprise December 11 LY showing, there are limits to how far
the relationship can develop. Soong is playing a high-stakes
game by trying to force concessions from all corners. If he
overplays his hand, he could soon find himself without a
party to bargain with. For its part, the DPP's attempts to
play both the KMT and PFP off against each other could
backfire by eroding prospects for building a modicum of trust
between the opposition parties and the soon-to-be formed
Hsieh cabinet. At the very least, the DPP's flirtation with
Soong raises questions over the DPP's commitment to Hsieh's
promise to create a "new model" for cross-partisan
cooperation (Reftel).
PAAL