EARLY ASSESSMENT OF DPP STRATEGY AND CHANCES IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003347

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2015
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: EARLY ASSESSMENT OF DPP STRATEGY AND CHANCES IN
YEAR-END LOCAL ELECTIONS


Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal.
Reason(s) 1.4 (B/D).


1. (U) Summary: The ruling Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP) views Taipei County as its pivotal battleground in the
December city/county chief elections. Even though public
opinion polls show, and most political leaders expect, the
election will be extremely close, nevertheless, the DPP has
effectively ended cooperation with its "Pan-Green" coalition
partner, Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU),which could split the
Pan-Green vote between the two parties. End summary.


2. (C) Premier Frank Hsieh last week publicly stated that
the December 3 local elections appear to be extremely tight
and the DPP should not expect to win an overwhelming victory.
Thus far, he said, Pan-Green and Pan-Blue candidates are
running neck and neck. DPP, he predicted, is unlikely to win
Kinmen or Matsu and might even lose one or two of the eight
southern Taiwan counties and cities. The party, however,
could win one or two other counties currently controlled by
the KMT and even the score. The "pivotal" battle, Hsieh
stated, will be fought in Taipei County, which the DPP cannot
afford to lose. Other DPP members tell AIT that DPP must win
Taipei County because of its large population and because the
county is currently controlled by the DPP. Losing Taipei
County would be widely perceived by the voting public as a
vote of no confidence in the DPP as a whole. Even more
important, Taipei County's last elected county magistrate was
DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang. Consequently, a DPP defeat
would be a major blow to Su's hopes to be the DPP
presidential candidate in 2008.


3. (C) Political leaders and analysts generally agree with
Hsieh's assessment, telling AIT that Taipei County is indeed
a DPP must-win. CNA Deputy Director for domestic news Ku
Cheng told AIT that Ilan County is also a must-win for the
DPP, because it has symbolic value as the hometown of many
ruling DPP leaders. At the secondary level, Ku continued,
the DPP considers Miaoli County, Hsinchu County and Hsinchu
City as its best hopes for expanding its political base in
northern Taiwan. Thus, the party is working to gain the
support of the politically conservative Hakka community,
which constitutes the largest voting block in these three
constituencies. With these three elections in mind, the DPP
nominated popular Hakka politician Luo Wen-jia as its
candidate in the neighbor to the north, Taipei County.


4. (C) Academia Sinica analyst Wu Chung-shu, who has close
ties to DPP leaders, told AIT that the DPP will consider it a
victory if it can remain as ruling party in Taipei County and
if it can increase support from Hakka voters in the northern
counties of Miaoli and Hsinchu. Winning over many of the
highly independent Hakka voters, he acknowledged, will not be
easy. One facet of the DPP's general election strategy, he
explained, will be promoting tax reform in the Legislative
Yuan (LY) to project an image of DPP as defender of social
justice.


5. (C) One strategy the DPP will apparently not employ in
December, however, is cooperation with the Taiwan Solidarity
Union (TSU),its Pan-Green coalition partner. Last month,
DPP Polling Director Wu Hsiang-jung told AIT that DPP
intended to reserve one or two of the 23 city/county chief
nominations for TSU. Last week, however, DPP Deputy SecGen
Yen Wan-ching told AIT that the DPP has ended its efforts to
cooperate with TSU because TSU criticized DPP policies at
every turn and constantly threatened to spoil DPP election
chances if TSU did not get its way in naming candidates to
represent the Pan-Green coalition. TSU legislator George Liu
Kuan-ping acknowledged to AIT on August 10 that TSU and DPP
are not cooperating at all on the December city/county chief
elections, and noted that if TSU fairs badly in the
elections, as he expects, that would be "the end of the TSU
as a viable party." Liu scornfully pointed out that when TSU
SecGen Su Chin-chiang pressed DPP SecGen Su Tseng-chang for
cooperation in the elections, DPP Su politely demurred,
explaining that while he personally wanted to coordinate with
TSU, unfortunately his hands were tied by DPP supporters, who

SIPDIS
would not tolerate sharing nominations seats. TSU Deputy
SecGen Lau Yi-de and TSU LY Cacus leader Lai Hsin-yuan
separately confirmed to AIT the total lack of coordination or
even contact between DPP and TSU on operational matters.


6. (C) Comment: It is too early to write off DPP-TSU
cooperation in the year-end elections, and certainly
premature to proclaim the demise of the Pan-Green coalition
(though several TSU legislators have told AIT they would
consider going with the KMT if the TSU does not survive as a
party). While confident that their own candidates can hold
their own against TSU competitors in December, moreover, most
DPP leaders realize they will need TSU help in the 2008
presidential race. With that in mind, and depending on the
competitiveness of their own candidates against the Pan-Blue
coalition, DPP leaders in the coming weeks could still accept
some TSU candidates as Pan-Green coalition candidates in some
locations.


7. (C) While neither the DPP nor the KMT expects a large
victory (Ma Ying-jeou said on China Television August 10 that
he would consider it a "passing grade" if Pan-Blue wins in 12
of the 23 locations being contested),pressure is on the DPP
leadership. As the ruling party it cannot afford missteps
between now and the December 3 elections. Another slip-up
like the government's continuing failure to restore water
supply in Taoyuan County in the wake of last week's Typhoon
Haitong, could drive middle-of-the-road voters to the Pan
Blue camp. This could be a deciding factor in a tightly
contested race. End comment
PAAL