CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM, ROUND II: CONSOLIDATING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002769

SIPDIS

WASHINGTON PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/24/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM, ROUND II: CONSOLIDATING
TAIWAN DEMOCRACY OR BACK DOOR TO INDEPENDENCE?

REF: TAIPEI 2490

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas H. Paal, Reason 1.4 b


1. (C) President Chen announced constitutional reform "Round
Two" just hours after the National Assembly passed a
constitutional amendment package on June 7. This further
constitutional "re-engineering" is intended to create a
"timely, relevant and viable" constitution by 2008, when Chen
steps down as President. Pan-Blue opposition parties just as
quickly rejected the proposal as too much too soon. They
also hinted suspicion of Chen's pro-independence intentions,
although the June 7 amendments will make it much more
difficult to ratify any, much less radical, constitutional
amendments. After an initial flurry of activity, Round Two
has slowed to a quiet crawl in the face of Pan-Blue
opposition and the reality of a more difficult constitutional
amendment ratification process. End Summary.

Round Two: Something for Everyone
--------------


2. (C) At a banquet on June 7 celebrating passage that day
of a constitutional amendment packet by the National Assembly
(reftel),President Chen formally announced "Round Two" of
constitutional reform. Chen invited opposition parties and
civil groups to join with the DPP to create a "timely,
relevant and viable" constitution by the time he, Chen, steps
down in 2008. He pledged to avoid politically sensitive
issues of name change, independence, territory, and
sovereignty. Chen called for a "bottom-up" campaign to
"re-engineer" the constitution, announcing that he would
create a bipartisan Constitutional Reform Commission with
opposition and civil society participation. Vice President
Annette Lu the next day assured the press that President Chen
would not dominate the commission, although DPP Deputy SecGen
Yan Wan-chin told AIT that Chen would "of course" head the
Commission.


3. (U) The Chen administration is couching the Second Round
of constitutional reform as focused on good governance and
consolidating Taiwan's young democracy. The ingredients
cover a broad spectrum designed to appeal to a large swath of
Taiwan's population, including:

-- Labor rights (association, bargaining, strikes)
-- Aborigine rights
-- Abolishing the provincial government (Note: the
provincial government was effectively eliminated in the 1999
constitutional revisions. End note)
-- Replacing Taiwan's 5- with a 3-branch government
-- Deciding if Taiwan has a presidential or cabinet government
-- Extending voting rights to 18 year olds
-- Converting from a draft to a volunteer military.

Presidential Office SecGen Yu Shyi-kun promised June 10 the
Round Two campaign strategy would be announced in one week, a
promise the government has not kept.
Deepening Democracy, Building Good Governance
--------------


4. (C) Yeh Jiunn-rong, Minister in charge of the Research
Development and Evaluation Commission (RDEC) and one of the
architects of Chen's constitutional reforms, told AIT that
Round Two is intended to deepen and consolidate Taiwan's
young democratic institutions. It focuses on the kind of
governance issues that he has pioneered in the RDEC,
including e-government and responsiveness to citizens.
President Chen, he explained, hopes to leave, as part of his
presidential legacy, an efficient government that is
responsive and accountable to the voters and encourages
citizen participation.


5. (C) The Chen administration, Yeh continued, is being
careful to describe Round Two, which will create a new
constitution by 2008, as "constitutional re-engineering" to
reassure the public that it does not involve radical
revisions. The new constitutional amendment ratification
threshold would in any event, Yeh noted, ensure moderation
and the "middle way" (zhongyong). The public face of Round
Two, the Constitutional Reform Commission, will include a
broad cross section of Taiwan society -- professionals,
business, local representatives, political parties,
legislators. Yeh himself is a point man for constitutional
reform in part because he is formally not a member of the DPP
(although he was appointed a DPP member of the recent NA) and
has close ties with many opposition leaders, including KMT
Vice Chair P.K. Chiang (Chiang Ping-kun). With the KMT "the
biggest beneficiary" of the June 7 constitutional amendments,
Yeh said, it should be possible to elicit KMT support for
Round Two. He particularly hoped that Ma Ying-jeou and Wang
Jin-pyng would support phase two after the KMT Chair election
on July 16.


6. (C) Noting that &We know Washington and Beijing are both
carefully watching the constitutional reform issue," DPP
Deputy SecGen Yan told AIT that the Chen government and the
DPP will proceed cautiously and responsibly in order not to
arouse concern. To that end, continued Yan, who is
responsible for constitutional reform for the party, the DPP
will keep AIT informed as plans for constitutional reform
move forward. He is personally, however, very skeptical of
the chances for Round Two reforms, noting that further
constitutional reforms will be extremely difficult under the
June 7 constitutional amendments. This skepticism has been
echoed by senior DPP LY members.

Pan-Blue Opposition Slows the Train
--------------


7. (U) Opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and People First Party
(PFP) were quick to reject Chen's proposal for a Second Round
of constitutional revision. KMT rejoined that the DPP
government should focus on improving Taiwan's limping economy
and implementing the new constitutional amendments. PFP
demanded that the constitution be protected and preserved,
expressing concern over pro-independence implications of
Round Two. Since together the two "Pan-Blue" parties
constitute a majority of the LY, their support is essential
for achieving the three-fourths LY vote required for approval
of constitutional amendments. This high threshold, along
with the second ratification step requiring approval by a
majority of registered voters, means that only amendments
with overwhelming political and public approval can run the
ratification gauntlet.


8. (C) A broad range of "Blue" and "Green" political leaders
tell AIT that there is little chance the Round Two
constitutional revisions can go forward. DPP legislator Lin
Cho-shui told the Director there is "no way" the Round Two
amendments could pass because of the high ratification
threshold and the complexity of the issues. Professor Chu
Yun-han, a constitutional specialist at National Taiwan
University, told AIT that the raised ratification threshold
would make it difficult, even insurmountable, for future
constitutional amendments to gain ratification.


9. (U) Though Presidential Office SecGen Yu Shyi-kun
informed the press June 14 that President Chen remains
determined to complete Round Two of constitutional reform,
there has been a visible slow-down in Chen Administration
reform activity. In his reference to the president's plan to
create a Constitutional Reform Commission, Yu acknowledged
there is no date or time table. President Chen himself has
raised the possibility over the past week of first
establishing a private constitutional reform league as a
"forum" for constitutional reform and to lobby for, educate
and encourage Round Two reforms.

Comment: Recognizing Reality
--------------


10. (C) President Chen moved quickly on Round Two in order
to capitalize on the presumed momentum from the National
Assembly only to find little momentum and lots of opposition
to further constitutional revision. The slowdown in Round
Two rhetoric over the ensuing three weeks reflects a
realization of, and attempt to deal with, the new, post-June
7 constitutional reality. The generally more pragmatic, less
ideological DPP SecGen Yan Wan-chin told AIT that he is
confident the long-term trend is in favor of Taiwanization
and eventual constitutional revision. This confidence, along
with an awareness of the political sensitivities of further
constitutional reform, particularly relative to Beijing and
Washington, have for the time being instilled an element of
caution within the Chen administration on the subject of
constitutional reform.
PAAL