MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002589

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ROBERT
PALLADINO
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations


Summary: 1. Taiwan dailies focused June 11-13 on two
domestic issues, i.e. a local kidnapping case and a Grand
Justices' decision. The conservative, pro-unification
"United Daily News" and the pro-independence "Taiwan Daily"
both reported June 11 on their front pages about the Taiwan
Grand Justices' decision to temporarily suspend plans to
collect fingerprints when issuing new ID cards. The
centrist, pro-status quo "China Times," the conservative,
pro-unification "United Daily News," and the pro-
independence "Taiwan Daily" all reported June 12 on their
front pages about the kidnapping of Taichung County Jenlan
Temple Deputy Chairman Cheng Ming-kun.


2. Regarding editorials and commentaries, Taiwan dailies
focused June 11-13 on domestic issues such as the second
stage of constitutional reforms, insufficient job
opportunities for teachers, the implications of the recent
Taiwan fishermen's protest against Japan, etc. The pro-
independence "Liberty Times" did publish an editorial,
however, suggesting that President Chen Shui-bian should
seek a meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush rather
than a meeting with China's President Hu Jintao. The Pro-
independence, English-language, "Taiwan News" editorialized
that the United States should play a more active role in
incorporating China into the world community, and in
protecting Taiwan's security. A commentary in the pro-
independence, English-language, "Taipei Times" said U.S.
warnings about China's military buildup could serve as an
appeal to the Taiwan people since the United States has
found it hard to alter the pro-China thinking of some Taiwan
politicians. Another commentary in the "Taipei Times" said
Taiwan farmers should not merely focus on short-term profits
that could result from China's policy to allow imports of
Taiwan fruit, but should watch out for the problem of over-
production as well. End summary.

A) "One Would Rather Seek a `Bian-Bush Meeting' Than to Hope
For a `Bian-Hu Meeting'"

The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 800,000]
(06/13)editorialized:

". [I]f the United States continues to ignore the status quo
of Taiwan's sovereignty, and refuses to conduct exchanges
with high-ranking Taiwan officials, the `magnetic force' of
China toward Taiwan will not decrease, but will increase.
As one can imagine, the United States, which is concerned
about cross-Strait issues, will not be glad to see this kind
of development.

". We hope the government will not only focus on China, but
also on the United States . because Taiwan and the United
States are real democratic partners. In other words, for
the next three years, we suggest that President Chen Shui-
bian seek a meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush to
replace a meeting between him and China's President Hu
Jintao. That means President Chen should set as a goal the
seeking after a breakthrough in Taiwan-U.S. relations.

". Recently, U.S. experts have proposed new thinking on
cross-Strait issues, including a review of the `One China'
policy. Moreover, the U.S. Congress has often passed
resolutions friendly to Taiwan. These changes in the
external environment will obviously contribute to talks
between high-ranking Taiwan and U.S. officials. . [I]t is
reasonable for Taiwan to talk to a friend before it talks to
an enemy. We thus suggest that President Chen seek a `Bian-
Bush meeting' to replace any `Bian-Hu meeting' in order to
protect Taiwan's sovereignty and security."

B) "U.S. Should Play Constructive Role in Cross-Strait
Affairs"

The Pro-independence, English-language, "Taiwan News"
[circulation: 22,000](06/13) editorialized:

". In the past, the PRC government had long insisted that
its relations with Taiwan were "domestic affairs" and
refused interference from the outside, especially from the
U.S. However, beginning in late 2003, the Beijing
authorities adopted a new strategy to put pressure on Taipei
through the U.S. and other countries in the wake of
President Chen's push to incorporate the right of referendum
into law and hold Taiwan's first "peace" referenda in tandem
with the last presidential election on March 20, 2004.

". Despite its official "non-involvement" stance, Washington
should also play a more active role given the critical
importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and
hopes that the PRC can continue its own reforms and be
incorporated peacefully into the world community.

"Moreover, it is essential that Washington continue to
uphold its commitment to the security of Taiwan, in
accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act, by helping to
bolster the security of Taiwan as a whole, by continuing to
stress the respect of the free will of the 23 million Taiwan
people and by persuading Beijing to pragmatically consider
Chen's offer to build a mutually beneficial peace
framework."

C) "Warnings on China Also Meant for Taiwan"
Bill Chang, a former deputy director of the Chinese Affairs
Department of the Democratic Progressive Party, commented in
the pro-independence, English-language, "Taipei Times"
[circulation: 30,000](06/11):

". Although China's military power has grown rapidly in
recent years, the US' "revolution in military affairs" has
not slowed down either. US defense spending has been
increasing every year, indicating that the American's have
no intention of falling behind in an arms race. In other
words, the gap in military strength between China and the US
has not been closed to any significant extent. The alarm
raised by the US over China's militarization is not meant
for its own people, but for China's neighbors.

". The US will not forget what happened in the late years of
Mohammed Reza Pahlavi's regime in Iran, who was deposed in
an Islamic revolution in 1979. As the anti-US forces in that
country grew, they finally took over the Iranian regime, and
US interests in the country were rooted out overnight.
Washington was in great trouble, despite the fact that the
anti-US forces did not cooperate with the Soviet Union --
the US' strategic enemy at the time.
What if Taiwan, which shares a common language and ethnicity
with China and enjoys great economic and military strength,
became China's ally?

"Since the US is unable to alter or shake the pro-China
stance of certain Taiwanese politicians, highlighting
Beijing's threat is a direct appeal to the Taiwanese people.

"To surrender to China and disregard the nation's interests
will only deepen US distrust of Taiwan. Such damage could be
fatal. The Pentagon's harsh words regarding China's arms
buildup are not just a warning to China, but also to
Taiwan."

D) "Beijing's Attempted Fruit Attack Won't Work"

Woo Rhung-jieh, a professor in the Department of
Agricultural Economics at National Taiwan University,
commented in the pro-independence, English-language, "Taipei
Times" [circulation: 30,000](06/12):

". There are many benefits to be had from exporting Taiwan's
agricultural produce to China in a planned way, for this
will help relieve the negative pressure on Taiwanese farmers
brought by the deregulation of trade in agricultural
produce.

"But the preconditions of establishing trade relations with
China are the absence of political interference, respecting
the WTO regulations and the free operation of the market
under a "normal" situation. Only in this way could we
prevent the possibility of suffering a big loss for a little
gain, and only by doing this can we refrain from being
confronted with a predicament nobody wants.

". The prospect of short-term benefits may cause domestic
farmers to increase production to meet the demands of an
illusory market, disrupting Taiwan's agricultural export
development plan. After some business people are drawn by
the bait, China can go back on its promise on various
pretexts, to achieve political ends. Unable to halt or
redirect production when the market is no longer able to
absorb production, large investments of money and effort
will find no outlet. As a result, the price of Taiwan's
agricultural produce for exports will fall sharply, and at
the end, farmers will suffer severe losses. Who will be
there to listen to the complaints of the farmers? Who will
shoulder responsibility for farmers' losses and the
consequent social unrest?

"Speaking of national defense in particular, if China uses
its preferential tariff treatment to cajole Taiwan into
reciprocally opening imports of China's agricultural
produce, China could flood Taiwan with its agricultural
produce, which is cheap, but of questionable quality. The
victims will not be limited to disadvantaged farmers and the
agricultural sector."

PAAL