DPP CHAIRMAN LOOKS TO HIS OWN FUTURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 002421 SIPDIS STATE PASS AIT/W E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR TW SUBJECT: DPP CHAIRMAN LOOKS TO HIS OWN FUTURE Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) ¶1. (C) Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairman Su Tseng-chang plans to start distancing himself from President SIPDIS Chen Shui-bian, according to a senior aide. DPP Deputy Secretary General Yen Wan-ching said that Su, who plans to SIPDIS depart for first visit to the U.S. as party chair in early July, has become exasperated by Chen Shui-bian's unpredictable leadership style and Su increasingly sees Chen as a liability to Su's own 2008 prospects. Yen said Su saw Chen's appointment of DPP rival Frank Hsieh as Premier in February and more recent public criticism over Su's handling of the DPP's National Assembly (NA) campaign as a personal betrayal. In addition, Yen said that Chen's erratic behavior over the past several weeks has damaged the DPP's image among the general public. Although Su frequently criticized Chen in private while serving as Taipei County Magistrate, Su has hewed closely to the Chen line in public and private since May 20, 2004, when he assumed the post of Presidential Office Secretary General. SIPDIS ¶2. (C) Yen said that Su had already prepared a resignation speech to deliver on May 14 had the DPP lost the NA election. Yen asserted that Su had mixed feelings over the DPP's strong performance, since he had looked forward to the opportunity to quit and escape from Chen's shadow. While Su plans to remain in his current post, Yen said he will no longer automatically tow the President's line. "He will show respect to the President," Yen remarked, "but will not necessarily express agreement with the President's policies." ¶3. (C) Yen predicted that Premier Hsieh will also seek to put space between himself and Chen with an eye towards 2008, but noted that Hsieh's room for maneuver was limited by his position and need to reach out to the Pan-Blue opposition. Yen said that Hsieh's attempts to seek reconciliation with the increasingly hostile Pan-Blue Legislative Yuan (LY) parties could hurt him in the DPP's 2008 presidential primary. While Hsieh's fate may be sealed if his cabinet remains unable to advance any policies in the face of opposition obstructionism, Yen said that Su's future is riding on the DPP's performance in the December 3 local election. ¶4. (C) Yen told AIT that Su will travel to Washington after he delivers a July 3 speech in San Francisco. Su recently asked TECRO Washington Representative David Lee to start arranging meetings for Su and his delegation with USG officials, along with members of Congress and the think tank community. Yen said that Su may be willing to share his own policy vision (as opposed to simply reiterating familiar Chen policy lines) during his Washington meetings if the U.S. side would find it useful. Bionote -------------- ¶5. (C) Yen is Su's main cross-Strait and foreign policy advisor and a ranking member of the DPP's powerful New Tide faction. A former Deputy SecGen of the Strait Exchange Foundation and Director of the DPP's China Affairs Department, Yen can be expected to play a central role in any possible future Su administration. Yen said told AIT that he would like to travel to Washington separately later in the summer to meet with working level officials from the Departments of State and Defense, the National Security Council (NSC),and the Office of the Vice President. PAAL