REVERBERATIONS FROM MAY 14 ELECTION: CONFIDENCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002212

SIPDIS

WASHINGTON PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: REVERBERATIONS FROM MAY 14 ELECTION: CONFIDENCE
AND CONCILIATION

REF: A. TAIPEI 2183


B. TAIPEI 2076

Classified By: AIT Director Douglas H. Paal, Reason 1.4 b


1. (C) A DPP riven by internal bickering one week ago has
emerged from its May 14 National Assembly election plurality
more confident -- in some cases, overconfident. In the
latter category, Vice President Annette Lu claimed May 14 was
a decisive victory for Taiwan sovereignty, a rejection of the
Lien-Soong Mainland China visits and a message to Beijing.
In the KMT, which placed an embarrassing second (after
predicting victory),there is quiet and signs of a greater
willingness to cooperate with the ruling DPP. Belying the
caustic words of VP Lu, however, there are indications that
President Chen and KMT Chairman Lien Chan might be willing to
talk and cooperate on the National Assembly and on
cross-Strait issues. End Summary.

May 14 Election Message: Taiwan No Meal for a Lion
-------------- --------------


2. (C) In a meeting May 16 with foreign representatives to
discuss Taiwan's foreign relations, the "deep-Green"
(pro-independence) Vice President Annette Lu (Hsiu-lien)
digressed to boast of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
first place finish in the May 14 National Assembly election
(Ref A). That election, she told the representatives, showed
Beijing that the people of Taiwan do not accept the one China
principle and that Beijing must reconsider its Taiwan policy.
May 14 was highly significant, she argued, and represented a
rejection of the Mainland China visits of Lien Chan and
People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (Chu-yu),both
of whom would abandon Taiwan and make it "a quick meal for a
lion."


3. (C) While PFP Chairman James Soong's trip may have
"seemed" successful, she continued, in reality May 14 was
Taiwan's "clear answer" to Soong. Soong returned to Taipei
on May 12 with his "two sides, one China" formula, Lu noted
bitterly, but two days later his PFP fell to a dismal fourth
place, "even below the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU)."
(Note: At this point MOFA North American Director Victor
Chin passed Lu a note, and she dropped her discussion of
Soong. Chin later told AIT that his note reminded Lu of a
cable from TECRO/Washington reporting a meeting between TECRO
Representative David Lee and NSC Asia Senior Director Michael
Green regarding James Soong, at which there was agreement on
the importance of the DPP administration showing flexibility
toward Soong. End note.)

KMT, Lien Chan Ready to Talk
--------------


4. (C) In a separate meeting, KMT foreign policy advisor and
former TECRO/Washington Representative Stephen Chen (Hsi-fan)
told AIT that Lien Chan is ready and willing to meet with
President Chen to discuss cross-Strait issues. Chen, who
accompanied Lien to Mainland China, said Lien fully realizes
that his cross-Strait initiative will be fruitless without
President Chen and the Taiwan government. The only obstacle
to Chen-Lien talks now, Stephen Chen explained, is President
Chen's harsh "campaign criticism" of Lien before the
election, in which he lambasted Lien's Beijing University
speech for criticizing Taiwan democratic institutions and
aligning KMT and CCP against Taiwan independence (Ref B).
The KMT has demanded an apology from Chen as a condition to a
Chen-Lien meeting. There are, however, Stephen Chen noted,
many ways to phrase an apology, pointing to President Chen,s
oblique apology to former President Lee Teng-hui last week,
in which Chen praised Lee rather than directly apologizing to
him.


5. (C) Stephen Chen told AIT that the impression he derived
from Lien's meetings in Beijing, was that Mainland China is
not in a hurry on unification and is adamant only on
independence. He saw TAO Director Sun Yafu's statement to
Beijing University students before the Lien speech as a step
forward, when Sun acknowledged that Beijing had been very
inflexible on "one China" until a few years ago and was
adjusting its "one China" definition to facilitate
cross-Strait cooperation. Stephen Chen also praised the
balanced U.S. support in the cross-Strait process. On the
issue of balance, he expressed concern that President Chen in
a hard line mode might try to distort U.S. encouragement of
Beijing to negotiate with the elected authorities in Taipei
-- an essential step, Stephen Chen noted -- to mean that Chen
Shui-bian could just sit and wait for Beijing to make
concessions.


6. (C) Stephen Chen argued that the PFP has been rendered
largely meaningless in the cross-Strait process by May 14 and
the PFP's "pitiful" 6 percent vote. He told AIT the KMT had
been surprised by how poorly staffed and prepared Soong was
on his trip, inappropriately repeating "Republic of China"
over and over and announcing that he would "sign an
agreement" contrary to Taiwan law. Rather, Chen insisted,
the cross-Strait issue was now largely between DPP and KMT,
with a reasonably good chance for cooperation now that the
May 14 elections are over.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) While not a presidential insider on cross-Strait
issues, Vice President Lu does represent a constituency of
"deep Green" DPP supporters from which President Chen has
apparently bought himself some breathing space with the May
14 DPP victory. Chen quickly reached out to Blue opposition
leaders Lien and Soong after the DPP victory, calling for
inter-party dialogue on cross-Strait issues. Along with
possible DPP-KMT cooperation on constitutional reforms in the
National Assembly commencing the end of May, Chen's effort to
reach out, in conjunction with some kind of public apology
for his harsh campaign rhetoric, could facilitate DPP-KMT
cross-Strait dialogue.
PAAL