CHEN CAMPAIGN OFFENSIVE DRAWS CRITICISM FROM ALL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002114 SIPDIS STATE PASS AIT/W E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR CH TW SUBJECT: CHEN CAMPAIGN OFFENSIVE DRAWS CRITICISM FROM ALL SIDES REF: A. TAIPEI 2076 ¶B. TAIPEI 2066 ¶C. TAIPEI 2001 Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) ¶1. (C) Summary: President Chen Shui-bian has continued to lash out at his political opponents in an effort to retake the agenda in the lead-up to the May 14 National Assembly (NA) election. On May 9, Chen singled out former President Lee Teng-hui for criticism, accusing Lee of hypocrisy for demanding actions by Chen that Lee himself did not pursue as President. Chen also asserted publicly that People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong had privately promised Chen the PFP would support the Special Defense Procurement Budget after the NA election. The revelation came on the heels of Chen's May 8 accusation that Soong had colluded with Beijing to derail constitutional reforms that will be voted on by the NA. Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) officials say privately that Chen's recent policy shifts have caused DPP morale to plummet. While some in the DPP warn that Chen's recent personal attacks on political figures across the spectrum could undermine prospects for post-election inter-partisan reconciliation, Pan-Blue officials have been careful not to publicly close the door to a post-NA election meeting. Premier Frank Hsieh has tried to limit the damage by touting a planned speech by the President on May 20 that will lay out his policy of reconciliation. Despite all the flak Chen has put in the air, he has not yet signaled a retreat from the pragmatic course he adopted in early May by accepting Lien Chan's trip to the PRC. End Summary. You Can Insult All of the People Some of the Time -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) President Chen Shui-bian's move to seize the political agenda in the days leading up to the May 14 National Assembly (NA) election has provoked criticism from all sides of the ideological spectrum. Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) officials reacted angrily to Chen's May 9 attacks on former President Lee Teng-hui. Chen accused Lee of hypocrisy for demanding Chen pursue policies that Lee himself did not pursue as President. Chen said that former President Clinton told Chen personally that Clinton would never criticize President Bush's policies because "the United States only has one President." Chen said that Lee should understand that Taiwan also has only one President. In response, TSU Secretary General Chen Chien-ming lashed out at Chen, accusing the DPP President of lying to the voting public over his 2004 campaign promises to pursue greater "Taiwanization" policies. With Friends Like This... -------------- ¶3. (C) Chen also further alienated his erstwhile ally, James Soong, by asserting that Soong had privately promised the President that the PFP would support the government's legislative agenda, including over the Special Defense Procurement Budget, after the May 14 election. PFP officials immediately denied the existence of any under-the-table deals. KMT Spokesman Chang Jung-kung boasted that Chen's revelations would undermine support for the PFP at the May 14 polls. PFP officials are still fuming over Chen's May 8 accusation that Soong met in January in the United States with PRC Taiwan Affairs Office Director Chen Yunlin (Ref A). President Chen said that Chen Yunlin used his purported meetings with Soong (and USG officials) to urge intervention to derail plans to revise the constitution (Ref B). (Note: the Department may wish to prepare contingency press guidance in case Taiwan reporters ask whether Chen Yunlin raised the constitutional revision or National Assembly issues during his January meetings in Washington. End Note.) PFP officials have demanded Chen apologize for the accusation, and Soong himself was filmed personally denying any contacts with Chen Yunlin in the U.S. ¶4. (C) While Pan-Blue officials have rejected Chen's recent allegations and publicly accused him of souring the political atmosphere, PFP and KMT spokesmen have so far stopped short of ruling out a post-May 14 meeting of political leaders. DPP Legislative Yuan (LY) Defense Committee Member Shen Fa-hui told AIT that it is critical for Chen to meet with Lien and Soong shortly after the May 14 NA election in order to secure a Pan-Blue commitment to move forward on the Special Defense Procurement Budget before the LY recesses in late May. Shen complained that Chen's repeated rhetorical shifts between reconciliation to condemnation have added an unneeded variable to the process. Shen added, however, that the door appears to remain open for a meeting between Chen and the two Pan-Blue leaders between the May 14 election and the anticipated May 17 vote on the Special Defense Procurement Budget in the LY Procedure Committee (Ref C). ¶5. (C) Chen's recent rhetoric has also provoked sharp criticism from within the DPP's own ranks. DPP officials told AIT that party Chairman Su Tseng-chang was furious over Chen's condescending treatment of party leaders during a televised May 6 DPP leadership meeting. Officials said that Chen privately apologized to Su on May 8, and absolved Su of responsibility should the DPP perform poorly in the May 14 election. While Su kept his frustration to himself, senior New Tide faction members publicly stated that Chen's recent sharp rhetoric amounted to a "slap in the face" to New Tide co-leader and National Security Council (NSC) Secretary General Chiou I-jen, who has tried to help Chen craft his centrist policy course. Chiou's Chief of Staff, Lo Ya-mei, told AIT on May 9 that Chiou has been taken off guard by some of Chen's recent rhetoric, especially his "revelations" about various conversations with James Soong. ¶6. (SBU) While most DPP leaders have kept a low profile in the wake of Chen's public statements, Premier Frank Hsieh moved to soften Chen's edge, using a May 9 speech to a business group to highlight the President's commitment to easing tensions with Beijing and facilitating greater cross-Strait economic interaction. Hsieh touted a planned Presidential address on May 20 that Hsieh said will set a clear marker for future cross-Strait relations. Comment: Falling Off the Wagon? -------------- ¶7. (C) The media and most political observers thus far appear to be writing off the President's series of ad hominem attacks on fellow political leaders as typical, if annoying, Chen Shui-bian campaign behavior. Heated domestic political rhetoric notwithstanding, it is encouraging that Chen has continued to advocate a moderate pragmatic approach to cross-Strait issues in recent days. It is also positive that all sides, but particularly the KMT, appear to be responding to Chen's statements in ways that leave room for inter-party talks and cross-Strait pragmatism after May 14. The major variable may be James Soong. Chen's decision to smear Soong as a PRC stooge while revealing details about under-the-table promises may complicate Soong's ability to explain to his followers what the PFP stands to gain from an alliance with the unpredictable Chen Shui-bian. PAAL