LIEN IN BEIJING: CHEN TO OFFER LOW-KEY RESPONSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001968

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STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR CH TW
SUBJECT: LIEN IN BEIJING: CHEN TO OFFER LOW-KEY RESPONSE

Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: The Chen administration plans a low-key
reaction to KMT Chairman Lien Chan's Friday meeting with PRC
President Hu Jintao in order to keep open options for a
inter-party summit after Lien's return. Officials are
generally relieved that Lien received no substantive
"deliverables" during his April 29 summit with Hu. However,
officials expressed disappointment over Lien's remarks at
Beijing University, especially his criticism of Taiwan's
democracy and reference to a KMT-Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) united front against Taiwan independence. Mainland
Affairs Council (MAC) Chairman Joseph Wu told reporters he
was "surprised" and "disappointed" at Lien's decision to
deliver a speech in Communist China critical of Taiwan's
democratic achievements. Similar sentiments were expressed
by Pan-Blue officials and media outlets. Several editorials
warned that Lien's domestic political commentary could
undermine the otherwise positive messages coming out of his
visit. While Taiwan's National Security Council (NSC) has
advised President Chen to avoid direct commentary, other
senior officials plan to seek opportunities to portray Lien's
April 29 speech and "five point" consensus in negative terms
in order to influence the public and media environment in the
immediate aftermath of the Lien visit. End Summary.

Chen to Offer Moderate Response
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2. (C) President Chen Shui-bian did not offer an immediate
public reaction to KMT Chairman Lien Chan's April 29 "five
point" consensus with PRC President Hu Jintao. NSC Deputy
Secretary General Henry Ko told AIT shortly before the

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Lien-Hu meeting that Chen agreed with the NSC's assessment
that Beijing would like nothing more than for Lien's Beijing
meeting to provoke another round of internal tensions. Ko
said that the President also indicated that, no matter what
Lien agrees to in Beijing, it is in the government's interest
to keep the door open to a Chen-Lien summit after Lien's
return from the Mainland.


3. (C) NSC Senior Advisor for cross-Strait relations Chen
Chung-hsin provided AIT a readout of the April 29 evening NSC
meeting convened to establish a formal response to the
Lien-Hu "five points." Chen said that the general consensus
was that the PRC succeeded in giving Lien "face" without
giving him anything of substance. He noted that four of the
five points agreed upon began with the term "promote," with
the only "deliverable" an agreement to establish a
party-to-party communications mechanism. According to Chen,
MAC Chair Wu argued that the "five points" amounted to a
clear violation of Taiwan's Cross-Strait Relations Statute.
However, Chen was joined by Presidential Office Deputy
Secretary General Ma Yung-chen in overturning Wu's suggestion

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of referring Lien to legal authorities. Instead, Wu was
instructed to simply offer a public criticism of Lien for
failing to convey the Taiwan people's support for the "ROC,"
opposition to the Anti-Secession Law, and wish for Mainland
China to develop its own democratic institutions.

CCP-KMT United Front Against Taiwan Independence
-------------- ---


4. (C) The NSC's Chen said the government also decided to
have the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) take the "bad
cop" role in responding to Lien's Beijing University speech.
Earlier in the day, MAC Chair Wu expressed "shock" and
"disappointment" over Lien's criticism of Taiwan's democratic
institutions during his address. DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang
told reporters that Lien's endorsement of a KMT-CCP "united
front" against Taiwan independence amounted to a rejection of
the island's pluralistic democracy. The party's spokesman
criticized Lien for "confusing the enemy country with his
mother country." Premier Frank Hsieh told reporters that he
is not overly concerned about Lien's meeting. However, Hsieh
said it would have been better if Lien had not criticized
Taiwan during his public remarks on the Mainland.


5. (SBU) Taiwan media and political commentary also focused
on Lien's remark about a "united front with the CCP to block
Taiwan independence." The normally pro-Blue United Evening
News criticized Lien's anti-independence statements in an
April 29 editorial, warning that his language would not only
increase internal tensions in Taiwan but also embarrass KMT
moderates like Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou and Legislative
Speaker Wang Jin-pyng. The centrist China Times also
editorialized that Lien's public criticism of Taiwan's
democracy and President Chen threatened to obscure the more
positive messages that emerged out of Lien's visit.

Pan-Blue Offers Low-Key Response
--------------


6. (C) There was little public commentary from senior KMT
officials in Taipei, although Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou did
praise Lien's visit as a chance to advance cross-Strait
understanding. Chou Chih-wei, an official at the KMT's
National Policy Foundation, told AIT that Lien's trip in
itself is good for cross-Strait stability, and has the
potential to usher in a new period of "China Fever" with
opportunities for further exchanges. However, Chou expressed
disappointment that Lien chose to use his Beijing University
speech to criticize the DPP. Chou said that for Lien's trip
to have any significance beyond mere symbolic reconciliation
between the KMT and CCP, something concrete must come from
it. This, he acknowledged, means cooperating with the DPP
government on follow-on actions. Chou added that if the
current KMT leadership mishandles the follow-up to the
Beijing meetings, the visit could backfire for the party
politically.


7. (C) The Beijing University speech and outcome of the
Lien-Hu talks have boosted expectations among DPP and People
First Party (PFP) officials for the early May visit of PFP
Chairman James Soong. The NSC's Chen told AIT that the PRC's
decision to go light on substance with Lien might indicate a
preference for dealing with Soong, and by indirect extension,
President Chen. PFP Policy Chief Vincent Chang offered a
similar assessment. Chang asserted that Beijing would not
"waste" substantive offers on Lien, since they know the KMT
Chairman would not convey any offer to the DPP government.
In contrast, Chang said that the PFP has already discussed
with PRC counterparts specific policy initiatives, such as
ways to finesse the "1992 consensus," that would open the
door to a real government-to-government dialogue (Septel).

Comment: Symbolism, but Little Substance
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8. (C) The atmospherics for Lien's visit were decidedly
positive, but Lien's inability to secure anything more than
vague commitments for further consultations is likely to
limit the bounce the KMT will get out of the visit. Other
than his public agreement to the "1992 consensus" as a basis
for future party-to-party talks, there was little in the
Lien-Hu "five points" that President Chen has not talked
about himself in public speeches. However, Lien's decision
to criticize his domestic opponents is already tarnishing the
otherwise constructive message in his Beijing University
speech. With virtually all of Lien's aides (and both of his
spokespersons) still at his side in Beijing, the DPP is
likely to have the edge in shaping the weekend media message.
The hard part will be to do so in a way that does not
undermine the possibility for resuming contacts with the KMT
after Lien returns on May 3.
PAAL