TAIWAN: 2004 TRADE PERFORMANCE

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TAGS: ETRD ECON KTDB TW
SUBJECT: TAIWAN: 2004 TRADE PERFORMANCE


1. Summary: Taiwan's global trade in 2004 totaled USD
341.9 billion, a record. Both global exports and
imports registered historic highs of USD 174 billion
and 167.9 billion, respectively, according to Taiwan's
Ministry of Finance (MOF). However, due to a faster
rate of growth in imports than in exports, Taiwan's
2004 trade surplus posted a six-year low of USD 6.1
billion, down 63.8 percent from a year ago.


2. Domestic industry's strategy of shifting production
to the PRC and ASEAN has increased Taiwan's reliance on
trade within Asia (especially the PRC and ASEAN). On
the other hand, the PRC's pursuit of Regional/Free
Trade Agreements with ASEAN, Japan and South Korea
could significantly affect Taiwan's trade
competitiveness in coming years. Finding ways to
counter this threat has become the focus of Taiwan's
economic and trade officials.


3. Commodity trade with the U.S. and Europe was
stagnant. Taiwan's heavy reliance on key components
supplied in 2004 by Japanese and South Korean
manufacturers generated a significant trade deficit
with these two nations. Japan and South Korea are
Taiwan's strongest competitors in the mainland market
due to product similarities. End Summary.

GLOBAL TRADE: DOUBLE-DIGIT RISE IN EXPORTS & IMPORTS
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4. According to statistics compiled by the Taiwan
Ministry of Finance (MOF),Taiwan's global trade in
2004 totaled USD 341.9 billion, growing 25.9 percent
from 2003. Taiwan's global imports of USD 167.9
billion and exports of USD 174 billion grew at a double-
digit rate, up 31.9 percent and 20.7 percent
respectively from 2003. International price increases
in agricultural and industrial raw materials, mainly
crude oil and iron/steel, contributed to the 31.9-
percent growth in imports. Due to a much faster growth
in global imports than exports, Taiwan's trade surplus
plunged 63.8 percent from USD 16.9 billion in 2003 to
USD 6.1 billion, a six-year low.


5. Taiwan's export markets continue to move away from
developed country trading partners like the U.S. and
Europe and towards developing countries like the PRC
and ASEAN; and from high-tech finished product exports
to advanced countries to semi-finished products,
components, and raw material exports to developing
countries. This reflects Taiwan industry's recent
strategy of setting up low cost production bases
overseas, primarily in the PRC, Vietnam and Thailand.
MOF statistics show that over 52 percent of Taiwan's
2004 exports were machinery and electronics, up 16.6
percent from 2003. However, for the first time, the
growth of Taiwan's machinery/electronics exports fell
behind the rate of its overall rise in global exports.


6. One consequence of Taiwan's shifting patterns of
trade is that the trade surplus with the U.S. and
Europe shrank significantly. The trade surplus with
the U.S. dropped 28.9 percent and with Europe 49.3
percent. Nevertheless, its trade surplus with Hong
Kong, composed largely of transshipments to the PRC,
surged 21.5 percent.

Trade with U.S. Grew, but Trade Reliance on U.S. Fell
-------------- --------------


7. Two-way trade with the U.S. in 2004 grew 16.3
percent from 2003 to USD 49.8 billion. Imports from
the U.S. rose 28.6 percent from 2003 to USD 21.6
billion, stimulated by Taiwan's demand for capital
goods, including machinery, electrical machinery and
precision instruments. Taiwan's exports to the U.S.
grew only 8.4 percent to USD 28.1 billion. Mainland
China has become Taiwan's largest IT production base
for meeting export orders from developed countries like
the U.S., Europe and Japan. This substitution effect
was further driven by Taiwan's recent decision to
further liberalize regulations governing investment in
high tech production facilities on the mainland,
especially for notebook PCs and TFT-LCD panel assembly.
MOF statistics showed over 53 percent (or USD 15
billion) of Taiwan's 2004 exports to the U.S. were
machinery and electronics, which merely inched up 1.8
percent from 2004. Noticeably, information and
communication exports to the U.S. (USD 3 billion)
plunged 29 percent from 2003, largely replaced by high-
tech exports from Taiwan manufacturers in the PRC.


8. Despite the 16.3-percent increase in U.S. two-way
trade with Taiwan in 2004, Taiwan's trade reliance on
the U.S. declined from 15.7 percent in 2003 to 14.5
percent in 2004. Over the past five years, Taiwan's
exports to the PRC have continued to rise steadily and
its trade reliance on the PRC posted a significant
increase (2004 data is not available): in 2003 Taiwan's
exports to the PRC accounted for 24.5 percent of
Taiwan's global exports, versus 22.6 percent in 2002,
19.6 percent in 2001, 17.6 percent in 2000, 17.5
percent in 1999, and 16.6 percent in 1998. In
contrast, U.S.-bound exports accounted for only 16.2
percent of Taiwan's global exports in 2004, versus 18
percent in 2003, 20.5 percent in 2002, 22.5 percent in
2001, 23.5 percent in 2000, 25.4 percent in 1999, and
26.6 percent in 1998.


9. Beginning in 2003, the U.S. fell from the top spot
on the list of Taiwan's largest trading partners,
surpassed by both the PRC and Japan. Japan maintained
its influential trade ties with Taiwan, remaining its
largest import supplier. The PRC was Taiwan's largest
export market followed by the U.S.

62 percent of Taiwan's Exports to Asia, Mainly the PRC
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10. Taiwan's 2004 exports to Asia accounted for 62 percent
of Taiwan's global exports, growing 26.1 percent from 2003
and posting a higher percentage increase than the growth of
global exports. Nearly 60 percent of Taiwan's exports to
Asia in 2004 went to Hong Kong and the PRC. But these
exports face strong competition from Japan and South Korea
as well as from domestic PRC suppliers. A Chung-hua
Institution for Economic Research (CIER) report showed that
PRC imports from Taiwan as a percentage of the PRC's global
imports dropped, while that of Japan and South Korea
continues to rise. The PRC's pursuit of Regional/Free Trade
Agreements with ASEAN, Japan and South Korea could
significantly affect Taiwan's trade competitiveness in
coming years (septel). Finding ways to counter this threat
has become the focus of Taiwan's economic and trade
officials.

Source of Taiwan's Trade Deficit: Japan and S. Korea
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11. Japan has been the chronic source of Taiwan's trade
deficit for many years and since 1998 South Korea has
emerged as the second largest contributor to Taiwan's trade
deficit. In 2004, Taiwan's trade deficit with Japan and
South Korea expanded more than 45 percent from 2003 to USD
30 billion and USD 6.3 billion, respectively. Taiwan's
Board of Foreign Trade (BOFT) commented that factors
contributing to Taiwan's trade deficit with South Korea and
Japan are similar, i.e., Taiwan's heavy reliance on South
Korean key components like integrated circuits (ICs),micro-
components, petrochemicals and computer peripherals.
According to BOFT, ICs and micro-component imports from
South Korea in 2004 accounted for 39 percent of Taiwan's
imports from South Korea. Other important imports from
South Korea included radio-telephone transmission equipment
and computer peripheral parts.

COMMENT - TRIANGULAR TRADE & OTHER COMPLEXITIES
-------------- --


12. Due to Taiwan's heavy reliance on the PRC as an IT
production base, much of Taiwan's trade with the U.S.
is now cycled through the PRC for final assembly and
onward shipment to the U.S. As a result, the U.S.
trade relationship with Taiwan has grown more complex
and involves a triangle relationship between the U.S.,
Taiwan and China. Taiwan has been trying to free its
key IT industries, mainly semiconductors and flat-panel
displays, from technology dependency on advanced
countries like the U.S. and Japan by providing
investment incentives to business, strengthening R&D
and training new talent. However, its reliance on key
component imports has not eased. On the contrary,
since Taiwan issued its `Challenge 2008' national
development plan in 2002, announcing its intention to
upgrade its star-industries, semiconductors and flat-
panel displays, imports of related key components from
Japan and South Korea have increased significantly.
Unless Taiwan officials can develop domestic sources
for key components, Taiwan's trade deficit with Japan
and South Korea likely will continue to grow.


13. Tables with detailed data on Taiwan's foreign trade in
2004 are available on our website:
http://taipei.state.gov/ait_s/econ/econ_web/T aiwans%20Foreig
n%20Trade.htm
PAAL