C O N F I D E N T I A L SOFIA 000931

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2015
TAGS: BU PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: THE "KING'S MOVEMENT": BULGARIA'S BEST HOPE?

REF: SOFIA 0808

Classified By: Ambassador James Pardew, reasons 1.5(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Though current polls show it lagging behind
the Socialists in the June 25 elections, the ruling National
Movement Simeon II (NMSS) may play an important role in the
next Bulgarian government -- either as the junior partner in
a Socialist-led government or the core of a disparate
center-right coalition. Recent surveys indicate that the
former King's party is likely to be the second-largest group
in the next National Assembly, winning between 50 and 70
seats in the 240-seat Assembly. Simeon,s intentions are
currently the most speculated upon element of the campaign
season. Some analysts believe Simeon could retain his
position as Prime Minister if the Socialist need his party to
form a government. Many NMSS supporters hope they can stop a
Socialist government by putting together a broad, if
fractious, center-right coalition. In either case, the NMSS
would play an important role in continuing Bulgaria's
pro-U.S. foreign policy. A successful showing by the NMSS,
therefore, is in the U.S. interest. END SUMMARY.

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NMSS Lagging as Campaign Begins
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2. (SBU) With the 30-day campaign season officially starting
May 25, and more than 20 percent of the voters still
undecided, the outcome of the election remains unpredictable.
The latest poll, conducted earlier this month, shows the
Socialists with 23 percent and the NMSS with 16 percent.
Under Bulgaria's system of proportional representation, and
if voter turnout follows the pattern of previous
post-communist elections, this will give the Socialists (BSP)
approximately 100 seats in parliament and the NMSS about 60
seats. The remaining 80 would be split among the Movement
for Rights and Freedom (a predominantly Turkish party,
currently in coalition with the NMSS) and several, dueling
center-right parties. The numbers can be combined in several
ways, but the most crucial issue is whether the Socialists
will dominate the next government.


3. (C) If, as many Bulgarians expect, the Socialists win a
plurality of seats, the King's party might still be necessary

for them to form a government. While ideologically a
liberal/ center-right party, many leading members of the NMSS
have close personal connections to the Socialists. When the
Movement was first formed in 2001, it drew support almost
equally from the Left and the Right, and key figures such as
Finance Minister Milen Velchev and Interior Minister Georgi
Petkanov have Socialist pedigrees in either their own or
their family background. Velchev, whose father was a
Communist Party official, became close friends with current
Socialist Party leader Sergei Stanishev when the two lived in
London during the 1990's.

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The Enigmatic Simeon
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4. (C) Simeon himself is generally viewed as either a
pragmatist or an opportunist, depending on whom you ask.
There is little evidence of strongly-held political ideology
and his decisions -or even the issues he takes interest in-
are difficult to predict. The Prime Minister listens to a
small number of official and unofficial advisors, but appears
to decide most issues for himself. Even those high in the
NMSS structure indicate they have few insights into how Party
decisions are made. Few, for example, knew in advance who
would be included on the NMSS election lists. Despite its
four years in power, the NMSS remains far more a "Movement"
than a political party. There is still little party
organization and Simeon,s (frequently absent) leadership
style has given substantial power to individual ministers.
Party discipline is rarely evident, yet Simeon commands great
personal loyalty and party leaders immediately defer to his
decisions. Much of the political class, believe Simeon wants
badly to serve another term and have difficulty envisioning
the ex-King as an opposition leader. For his part, Simeon
has assured the nation he is here to stay, but remains
enigmatic about his specific intentions.


5. (C) The price of the NMSS' participation in a center-left
coalition would likely be the Prime Minster's job. Though it
would be difficult for their core members to accept, the
Socialists are desperate to avoid another four years out of
power. There are also rumors that parts of the Socialist
Party would prefer Simeon to BSP leader Sergei Stanishev as
leader of the next government. A lack of confidence in the
39 year-old Stanishev to either control his party or lead a
successful government regularly fuel reports that he would
not be the Socialists, first choice. Many view Simeon --
with his hands-off management style -- as an acceptable
alternative as long as the Socialists get control of key

ministries. Perhaps the largest unanswered question is
whether Simeon would allow the NMSS to join a Socialist
coalition if he were not to be the Prime Minister.

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Going Right or Left
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6. (C) A second alternative for the Simeon Movement is a
center-right government built around an NMSS core in
coalition with the 3-4 liberal/center-right parties expected
to meet the 4 percent threshold for entering Parliament.
While preferable from our perspective, it would also be an
unstable grouping, already suffering from serious personal
animosities and problematic egos. If given the opportunity,
the NMSS would have to decide which would be easier to manage
-- ideological differences on the left or personal conflicts
on the right. Our contacts tell us the King,s Movement would
prefer to go right, but that will ultimately depend on the
number of seats captured. Simeon has reportedly instructed
his party to refrain from any public discussion of a
Socialist-NMSS coalition fearing it will scare off potential
right-wing support. At the same time, political consultants
working on the campaign have told us Simeon does not want the
NMSS campaign to attack the Socialists. Whether this is
reflective of Simeon,s courteous political nature, or a
desire to keep his options open is yet to be seen. (Early
advertising indicates the Socialists do not share Simeon,s
compunction and will be launching frontal attacks on his 2001
promise of "800 days to an improved Bulgaria.")


7. (C) Comment: To date, it does not appear Iraq will be an
important election issue, despite the widespread disapproval
of Bulgaria,s military participation. The NMSS effectively
neutralized the opposition with the decision to withdraw its
troops at the end of 2005. Absent serious casualties or other
unpleasant Iraqi news in the run-up to the election, the
issue may stay in the background. While the current
government falls short in some important areas -- primarily
rule of law and transparent business practices - it has been
a strong supporter of the U.S. internationally and a mostly
predictable economic player domestically. An objective
review of the government,s accomplishment provide a list of
successes that many politicians would be happy to run on
--NATO membership, EU Accession Agreement, billions in
foreign investment, reduced unemployment and a stable
economy. But despite the accomplishments, the average
Bulgarian still focuses on the nation,s low wages, poor
infrastructure, the deterioration of public health and
education systems and the seemingly endless transition. To
the extent that the NMSS plays a role in the next government,
it will be a stabilizing one, especially if the Socialists
emerge as the strongest party after the elections. The
larger the combined NMSS, center-right vote, the more likely
Simeon will stay in power.