BULGARIA RULING PARTY SEALS DEAL TO AVERT POLITICAL

UNCLAS SOFIA 000242

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA RULING PARTY SEALS DEAL TO AVERT POLITICAL
CRISIS

Ref: (A) SOFIA 00228 (B) SOFIA 00217


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Bulgaria's ruling coalition signed
February 7 a cooperation agreement with the New Time (NT)
party that secured majority support for Simeon Saxe-Coburg
Gotha's government in the upcoming no-confidence vote.
Under the deal, the ruling party, its junior coalition
partner, and the NT create a stable parliament for the PM's
cabinet until the mid-2005 general elections. The three
liberal parties also agreed to form a coalition in the pre-
election campaign. The deal, if honored, averts a political
crisis in Bulgaria. The no-confidence vote will still take
place, likely on February 11. While it is not yet clear
whether a cabinet reshuffle is part of the eleventh-hour
deal, an NT leader told us they will back the government
even if their request for cabinet changes are not met. The
GOB's supportive policy on Iraq should be bolstered by this
agreement. END SUMMARY

DEAL ENDS POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY?


2. (U) In the deal, the ruling National Movement for Simeon
II (NMS) and its coalition partner, the predominantly ethnic
Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF),agreed to
accept the centrist New Time as an equal partner in the
coalition. The three liberal groups also pledged to unite
their efforts during the upcoming campaign with a goal of
securing "a new term for a liberal government". "This
deal will allow the government to fulfill its program, which
is extremely important for our society, and for Bulgaria's
image abroad, especially in Brussels," Saxe-Coburg told
reporters. He was referring to the planned signing of
Bulgaria's EU pre-accession treaty on April 25th, which,
according to government officials and analysts might have
been delayed by a political crisis.


3. (U) The political turmoil began last week after five
opposition groups from both sides of the political spectrum,
including NT, tabled a motion of no confidence in the
government. It continued on February 4 when the National
Assembly ousted Chairman Ognyan Gerdjikov (Refs A and B).
The deal, which secures a majority of 131 seats in the 240-
seat chamber, ensures the political future of the NT which
was formed by reformist NMS defectors last year.

RESHUFFLE STILL POSSIBLE


4. (SBU) "The agreement puts an end to political uncertainty
and allows the government to rely on a stable parliamentary
majority", NT Parliamentary Group Chairman Miroslav
Sevlievski told us. He confirmed NT would back the cabinet
and reject the upcoming no-confidence motion. Sevlievski
also told the Embassy that the stabilized coalition would
continue to support the U.S. in Iraq. Also, contrary to
public statements, support for the government would not
depend on whether Saxe-Coburg meets NT's requests for a
government reshuffle. Sevlievski told us that while NT
would like to get ministerial chairs in the incumbent
government, this would not be a deal-breaker either. NT is
looking for their future survival. "[The deal] is about a
long-term partnership with a view of forming the next
liberal government", Sevlievski told us. He reiterated that
NT's maneuvers were aimed at securing the political future
of NT leaders in the June elections and was not intended to
take down the government.


5. (SBU) COMMENT: The agreement between the three parties
makes it more likely that the government will survive until
the summer general elections. Whether the coalition lasts
through the elections is another issue. The fate of Deputy
PM and Minister of the Economy Shuleva remains uncertain.
Her actions surrounding a major privatization sparked the
crisis but her relationship with the PM appears to remain
intact. Much can still happen in the four days before the
no confidence vote, but the PM's government is much more
secure after the signing of this agreement than it was last
week.


6. (U) Distribution of seats in parliament:

*National Movement for Simeon II 98
Coalition for Bulgaria (Socialists) 49
United Democratic Forces (Ivan Kostov) 28
*Movement for Rights and Freedoms 20
Union of Democratic Forces (Nadezhda Mihailova) 14
People's Union 11
*New Time 13
Independent 7

*Coalition partners